Always getting lost in the market? You might be lacking a set of multi-timeframe observation methods.
'Teacher, why can you always hit the right rhythm, while my operations feel like gambling on odds?' Every time I hear this question, I want to tell you: If you are only fixated on one K-line period, you have basically already lost half the battle.
I found that friends who lose money in the crypto world are not lacking in patience; instead, they are 'trying too hard': jumping in and out on the 1-hour chart, fantasizing about getting rich on the 15-minute line, and when the trend comes, they are directly caught under the wheels. Today, I will share with you the multi-timeframe analysis method that I have used for five years, so you can understand how to observe the market like a professional player.
First, look at the big picture: the 4-hour chart is your 'navigator.'
I have a habit: every time I open the trading software, I first brew a cup of tea and pull out the 4-hour chart to look at it for ten minutes. Don’t laugh, these ten minutes can save your account.
Through the 4-hour chart, you can see the main direction of the market:
If the highs are getting higher and the lows are also getting higher, then the trend is saying, 'I want to go up.' At this time, a pullback is not a risk, but an opportunity.
If the highs are getting lower and the lows are also getting lower, the market is telling you to 'take a break quickly'; rebounds are mostly traps, and if you're impatient, just cut your hands.
If the candlesticks are going back and forth like Tai Chi, congratulations, you've entered the 'fee harvesting period.' The more diligent you are at this time, the happier the exchange will be.
This analytical method is actually backed by profound market logic. The Wyckoff method believes that market trends are essentially changes in supply and demand relationships. When demand exceeds supply, prices rise; conversely, prices fall when supply exceeds demand. The 4-hour chart can help us effectively judge the fundamentals of this supply and demand relationship.
Remember one thing: operating against the trend is like spitting at a tornado.
Find a position: the 1-hour chart is your 'scope.'
With the direction set, we need to find a good position to 'stake out.' The support and resistance levels and moving average arrangement on the 1-hour chart are your map coordinates.
In an uptrend, the price steadily stands above the 20-day moving average; every pullback is a 'polite invitation.' If the price reaches near previous highs but hesitates to break through, it's mostly a sign of 'not having enough strength after a full meal.' Jumping in at this time is likely to turn into catching a falling knife.
I have seen too many people who correctly identify the direction but chase it at the mountain top—if the position is wrong, no matter how good the trend is, it’s wasted.
The judgment of support and resistance levels here can actually be confirmed by candlestick patterns. For example, if a doji appears at the end of an uptrend, it generally raises the suspicion of a top because after a long period of significant increase, the funds participating have already made substantial profits. Conversely, a large bullish candlestick appearing at the beginning of a rally is a bullish signal, indicating that the bulls have defeated the bears and gained a certain advantage.
Finally, pull the trigger: the 15-minute chart is your 'starting gun.'
The truly good opportunities often just require waiting for that moment. At this time, we need to observe two key factors:
Look at the patterns: engulfing, divergence, golden cross; these names sound fancy, but essentially the market is saying, 'I am ready.'
Look at the volume: an increase in volume is sincere, a decrease is a trick; false breakouts love to play the 'silent sneak attack'.
My principle is simple: trend, position, signal—only act when all three are in place; if one is missing, treat it like watching a show. (If you often lose money due to impatience, set this sentence as your phone wallpaper.)
This phenomenon in trading is referred to as the relationship between 'effort and result'—when price changes (results) synchronize with trading volume (efforts), it promotes further price movement; when they lack synchronization, it may indicate a change in direction.
The market is always in a cycle, but each time it is not the same.
Understanding multi-timeframe analysis, we also need to recognize the cyclical characteristics of the market. The cryptocurrency market has a significant cyclical pattern; based on historical data, Bitcoin experiences a complete market cycle approximately every four years, closely related to halving events.
But importantly, history will repeat itself, but it won't simply repeat. As K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out, as the impact of halving diminishes, the cyclical effects of Bitcoin also become less obvious. This means we can't blindly copy historical patterns; we must analyze based on an understanding of market fundamentals combined with current market conditions.
The current market has a significant difference from the past: institutional funds are entering in large quantities through Bitcoin spot ETFs. This has changed the market structure, which was previously mainly driven by retail investors, and has made price behavior more complex. On the 4-hour chart, we can see the impact of this structural change: volatility may be amplified in some phases while smoothed in others.
Let’s talk about something practical: risk control is always the top priority.
I know you want to see 'which coin will rise tomorrow,' but more important than that is establishing your own observation rhythm. The market is never short of opportunities; what’s lacking is the vision to recognize those opportunities.
Surviving is more important than making money. In the digital currency market, leveraged trading is the 'graveyard' for many people. Coin data shows that during periods of extreme volatility, more than 120,000 people may be liquidated within 24 hours, with liquidation amounts reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. So, don’t fire all your bullets at once; keep some cash reserves to give you room to maneuver in the market.
At the same time, pay attention to the macroeconomic environment. The cryptocurrency market is no longer an isolated island from traditional finance; the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, global geopolitical events, and so on will have a significant impact on the market. I usually spend half an hour each week browsing important macroeconomic news, which helps me understand the possible movements of large funds.
If you can't distinguish the trend or pinpoint buy and sell points, don't rush to place an order—first, understand the logic of multi-timeframe interaction.
I often tell my friends in the community: 'Slow is fast, less is more.' In the coin circle, living longer is the hard truth.
Sometimes, the best trade is not to trade at all; patiently waiting for all cycles to emit resonance signals is smarter than blindly entering and exiting.
The market is always changing, but human greed and fear remain unchanged, and this is precisely the opportunity we can take advantage of.#巨鲸动向 $ETH
