$UNI
9:0 Full vote interest rate hike but遭崩盘！Yen逼近160红线, Japan要出手救市？一起聊聊呗！
Who would have thought that the strongest interest rate hike in 30 years would become the yen's 'catalyst for decline'! On December 19, the Bank of Japan unanimously passed a resolution to raise the short-term interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, a new high since 1995. The intention was to stabilize the exchange rate and curb inflation, but it triggered a 'crash-like' decline of the yen.
After the interest rate hike, the dollar against the yen surged to a four-week peak of 157.76, with the daily increase reaching the highest since early October. The yen against the euro and Swiss franc hit historical lows, while against the pound it reached 2008 highs, all lines collapsed without resistance. This abnormal market trend had long been foreshadowed: the interest rate hike news had been priced in by the market in advance, and after it was implemented, the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' phenomenon triggered capital flight. More crucially, the central bank emphasized that 'real interest rates remain extremely low', and Governor Ueda Kazuo's ambiguous comments on future rate hikes were interpreted as 'dovish rate hikes', coupled with the 300bp interest rate differential between the US and Japan still existing, the $19.2 trillion carry trade continues to suppress the yen.
Currently, the market is closely watching two critical lines: one is the spring 2026 wage negotiations, where the union has called for a 5% salary increase, and the starting salary for new graduates has already reached a historic high, which is the core confidence for the central bank's future rate hikes; the second is the 160 intervention red line, where the dollar against the yen is approaching a critical point, and the finance minister has clearly warned of responding to 'excessive volatility', reminiscent of the 2024 intervention of ¥9.8 trillion that was only a fleeting moment.
Institutions generally predict that this rate hike is merely a slight adjustment to the easing, and it will be difficult to raise rates again before June next year, with the yen's weakness likely to continue. On one side is the economic pressure with debt at 2.3 times GDP, and on the other is the risk of exchange rate collapse, leaving the Bank of Japan in a dilemma.
Even the ¥9.8 trillion intervention couldn't reverse the trend; will Japan hold firm at the 160 threshold this time? Do you think the yen is a bottom-fishing opportunity or will it continue to weaken? Elon Musk concept small milk dog 🐶【p u.p p.i.e.s】 can pay attention to it!