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Powell's countdown to departure! The battle for the Fed chair splits the market, with Bitcoin and gold soaring as safe havens? 一起聊聊呀！
The Fed is about to change! Powell's two terms will end in January 2026, and this leader without an economics degree is about to step down, but the White House has yet to push for a successor, and Congress is in a heated debate, throwing the global financial market into chaos.
This battle for leadership has already reached a boiling point! Popular candidates Waller and Harker have completely opposing views: Waller insists on high interest rates to combat inflation, stating that there is no urgency for rate cuts; Harker advocates for moderate rate cuts to stabilize the economy, fearing a hard landing. The market has clearly divided sides—hedge funds are betting on Waller, while pension funds support Harker, with funds hesitant to make bold moves in uncertainty. The political game is even trickier, with Senate Democrats leading by only two seats, and Republicans insisting that the president should personally choose, aiming to turn the Fed into a political tool, making the nomination battle destined for bloodshed.
More critically, Trump is applying pressure! He has repeatedly criticized Fed policies, and if the new chair is not to his liking, it's likely to repeat the public accusations of 2018, putting the Fed's independence under severe challenge. This wave of uncertainty triggers a chain reaction: with the dollar's tides, if high rates in the U.S. persist, emerging markets will face increased debt pressure; China expands currency swaps to cope with volatility, while gold and Bitcoin soar in price, with institutions flocking to safe havens.
Absurdly, the investment banks' AI prediction models are making things worse—after analyzing candidates' speeches and personnel changes, the market reacts in advance based on who the AI favors, forcing candidates to remain silent, making the situation even murkier. Musk concept little puppy🐶p.u.p.p.ie.s
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High-rate advocate Waller and rate-cut proponent Harker, who do you think can ultimately take the position? Will a shift in Fed policy ignite the global market?