Trading strategy
Entry: $12.60-12.68 (rebound to the upper Bollinger Band + resistance zone)
Target: $12.22 (drop of -3% to -3.8%, lower Bollinger Band + long liquidation trigger zone)
Stop loss: $12.85 (increase of +2% to +2.7%, above EMA200 + psychological barrier)
Leverage: 3-5 times (3 times conservative, 5 times standard, short-term rebound risk needs to control leverage)
Holding time: ≤48 hours
✅ Waiting for the rebound to enter the range of $12.60-12.68, first batch 40% position at $12.65, add 40% at rebound $12.68, extreme $12.75 to top up 20%
⚠️ 50% position at $12.35 quick take profit, remaining 50% targets $12.22 to trigger long liquidation waterfall
⚠️ Strictly execute the stop loss at $12.85. If it breaks through, it indicates the continuation of the rebound. Immediately acknowledge the mistake and exit.
Core Viewpoint
Although LINK's 1-hour RSI is 57.6 (neutral) and the price is close to the upper Bollinger Band at $12.68, the daily RSI is 42.5 (relatively low), with the price far below the daily EMA20 at $13.06, EMA50 at $14.17, and EMA200 at $16.63, indicating a complete long-term downtrend. The 24-hour long liquidation is $218k, accounting for 74%, far exceeding the short position of $78k (2.8 times), putting continued pressure on longs. The open interest has a mild increase of +0.16% (24 hours) / +1.65% (4 hours), and the exchange shows a net outflow of -918k over 7 days (2025-12-21), indicating selling pressure. A short-term rebound to the upper Bollinger Band near $12.68 is an ideal position for shorting.
Technical Analysis
1-hour RSI is 57.6 (neutral to strong), MACD histogram is +0.013 (bullish), price at $12.57 is close to the upper Bollinger Band at $12.68, above EMA20 at $12.44 and EMA50 at $12.47, indicating a short-term technical rebound. The 4-hour RSI is 50.5 (neutral), with the price around the middle Bollinger Band at $12.48. The daily RSI is 42.5 (relatively low), MACD histogram is -0.054 (bearish), with a price of $12.57 below the lower Bollinger Band of $11.81 to the middle band range, far below EMA20 at $13.06, EMA50 at $14.17, and EMA200 at $16.63, continuing the long-term descending channel.
Short-term technical rebound is diverging from the daily weakness, and the rebound is exactly the window for adding to shorts.
Key Resistance: $12.68 (1-hour upper Bollinger Band), $12.76 (EMA200)
Key Support: $12.22 (Bollinger Band lower band + long liquidation zone $4-6M), $12.44 (EMA20)
Derivatives Market
Funding rates are mixed; Binance has a negative value of -0.0005% (shorts pay longs), Bybit/OKX has a positive value of +0.01%, overall neutral. Open interest increased by +0.16% in 24 hours and +1.65% in 4 hours, showing moderate growth.
24-hour liquidation data: Long positions at $218k account for 74%, shorts at $78k, with long liquidations being 2.8 times that of shorts. The liquidation heat map shows cumulative long liquidations of $4-6M in the $12.0-12.2 range, and short liquidations are sparse above $12.56 at $0.2M+, indicating low resistance for shorting.
On-chain data
Circulating supply is 588 million coins, FDV is $12.56 billion (exceeding the 1-5 billion range but with very good liquidity), the top 10 holders account for 33.59%, indicating moderate concentration. The exchange shows a net outflow of -918k (2025-12-21) and -537k (12-20), indicating continued selling pressure. No upcoming unlocking events.
