On December 21, according to CME FedWatch Tool data:
The probability of a 25bp rate cut in January: 22.1%
Probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged: 77.9%
This is not an opinion, it's a pricing result.
Once the market completes pricing, the narrative will switch immediately.
First, why is this probability so important? Because it is the 'consensus'.
You need to understand one thing:
FedWatch is not a prediction,
It translates all interest rate futures positions into probabilities.
In other words:
Hedge funds
Bank proprietary trading
Macroeconomic funds
Real money has already been voted with -
January's interest rate will not be cut, this is the mainstream consensus.
Secondly, from the 'rate cut cycle' to the 'frozen window', it’s only a week apart.
Looking back at the past month, the market has gone through three phases:
1️⃣ After consecutive rate cuts:
“The easing cycle has already begun”
2️⃣ New FOMC voters turn hawkish:
“Rate cuts may slow down”
3️⃣ Now:
👉 “At least don’t think about it in January”
This step is crucial.
because it means:
The market's short-term “macro imagination” has been completely compressed.
Three, what does it mean for risk assets? It’s not bearish, it’s about avoiding fantasies
Many people reflexively shout bearish when they see “the probability of rate cuts decreasing”.
But reality is more subtle.
The real impact is three points:
① No longer giving you “policy-level boosts”
No unexpected rate cuts
There is no sudden easing
There is no macro catalyst that “decides everything”
The market can only slowly move towards structure.
② Leverage will continue to be suppressed
When rate cuts are delayed:
Long positions cost ↑
Time cost ↑
Funds betting on policies ↓
👉 Contracts will be more demanding, small coins will struggle to survive.
③ But this does not mean the market will collapse
Because the current state is:
Maintain interest rates unchanged
It's not about raising rates again
It's not a liquidity recovery either
This is a typical:
it is a period of high interest rate stagnation, not a tightening period.
Four, looking at it in the crypto market is actually clearer
Combine this data with other signals you’ve seen over the past two days:
BTC continues to flow out from CEX
Corporate treasury, ETFs are locked up
The Alpha sector has been lifted by specific points
Meme and small contract coins are repeatedly liquidated
You will find a conclusion:
The market has already tacitly agreed: relying on the Fed for the short term is hopeless.
So what is the money doing?
👉 Bet on “structural certainty”,
and not “policy surprises”.
Five, this impacts the differences between BTC, mainstream coins, and small coins
🔹 BTC
Not expecting rate cuts in January
But selling pressure is decreasing
Most resilient
👉 Holding steady is an advantage.
🔹 Mainstream altcoins (ETH / BNB, etc.)
Funding selection is needed
More focus on ecology, cash flow, narrative quality
The strong remain strong
🔹 Small coins & high leverage
There is no macro support
Any slight disturbance could lead to liquidation
The survival environment is the worst
The last sentence gives you a clear judgment 💬
When the probability of rate cuts in January is only 22%,
What the market has truly completed is not a “bearish” outlook,
but rather “no longer fantasizing”.
The upcoming market trend,
It doesn’t take a single piece of news about rate cuts to take off,
but rather depends on—
Whose chips are more stable,
Who can endure this period without sugar.
This is the most authentic macro backdrop right now.$BTC
