Everything is rising, the world is collectively hesitating

Gold, US stock futures, and crude oil opened higher on Monday—US stocks performed well last Friday, easing the market's tense atmosphere.

But one word to note: "light trading." As we enter holiday mode, a lot of capital has already started to "close up shop," and during such times, the rise may be amplified, but its quality is not high.

· First, last week the S&P 500 index stood above 6800 points, the NASDAQ index broke through the 50-day moving average, and Bitcoin steadily stood above $85000—so one theme starting this Monday will be "betting on a year-end rebound" (not "optimistic for next year"). From this perspective, the path of least resistance this week is "upward," but the only risk is that consensus will become increasingly uniform. Once it is overly discussed, two outcomes may occur: premature exhaustion or a quicker but shorter-lived rise.

· Second, for investors, it remains an environment of expectations, as the market continues to bet that the Fed will have two rate cuts next year (reasonable, not aggressive), and people will continue to bet with hope. The market has no direction, only betting on probabilities.

· Third, the global market remains in a state of "hedging coexistence," with stock markets rising, the dollar not falling, gold not weakening, and bond yields remaining high—the market does not believe in a single narrative. This is not a bull market rise; it resembles a collective hesitation.

Fourth, the true "watershed" of the market does not lie in the holidays but in January—not a point, but a "re-pricing period."

China: If January's policy signals are not clear enough, patient capital will continue to wait and see.

The US: Once "no rate cut in January" becomes consensus, valuations will need to be re-discounted.

This is not a rebound that one can "safely chase," but it is also an environment that is "not suitable for simple shorting." The real choice lies in January.