Core conclusion: The bear market trend of Bitcoin that started in September 2024 has not experienced any reversal to date. The previous judgment that 'the bottom will not be reached in the short term' remains valid—it's clear that the market cannot complete the bottoming process in just 2-3 months or 4-5 months; a complete bottoming cycle requires at least 12-14 months, with the ultimate target price set at the $60,000 range. This core judgment is certain. In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to move upward to the $97,000-$107,000 range within the next few weeks, and there will not be a significant decline before February-March 2026. The current sideways consolidation pattern will continue for several months, with the core goal being to create sufficient liquidity for the subsequent ultimate decline.
1. Core judgment: The essence of the bear market cycle is 'liquidity bottoming,' with time being more critical than price levels.
Most market participants have a cognitive bias: they believe that the market will respond quickly to bad/good news, and prices will move directly towards target levels. However, the core logic of a bear market is 'liquidity forming gradually'—only after a sufficiently long period of consolidation and volatility can enough liquidity (including trapped positions, stop-loss orders, and bottom-fishing capital) be settled on the downside path, laying the foundation for the eventual rebound. This is why 'time' is more important than 'price level' at this stage: short-term fluctuations are merely superficial; long-term consolidation is the core process of a bear market.
Combining historical cycle patterns and the current market structure, we judge that the bottoming cycle of Bitcoin's bear market will take at least 12-14 months (starting from September 2024), meaning the real bottom will not appear until around September to November 2025 at the earliest. The $60,000 area will be the ultimate anchor point for this bear market. Before that, any seemingly 'strong' rebound does not signify a trend reversal; essentially, it is just a phase of repair within the bear market.
2. Short-term trend: In the coming weeks, upward movement to $97,000 - $107,000, with consolidation and volatility as the main theme.
From both technical and capital perspectives, Bitcoin will enter a phase of upward movement in the coming weeks, with the target range set at $97,000 - $107,000. This judgment is not based on a 'trend reversal,' but rather on 'phase-based repair' within the bear market consolidation cycle—after several months of oscillation and sorting, market selling pressure has been somewhat released, and there is a phase-based demand for capital replenishment, pushing prices to test higher ranges.
It is important to clarify that this upward movement will exhibit characteristics of 'slow ascent + repeated volatility,' accompanied by significant market manipulation (such as false breakouts and forced liquidations). The core purpose of the main funds is to exhaust the patience of ordinary investors through this 'grueling' trend—either cutting losses during consolidation or hastily taking profits after a slight increase, ultimately missing the chance to buy at the bottom during the subsequent ultimate decline, and even falling into FOMO (fear of missing out) emotions when the future bull market starts.
At the same time, we firmly predict that before February-March 2026, the market will not experience any 'significant declines' (a unilateral decline exceeding 30%). The core task during this stage is 'consolidation and accumulation of strength' to build sufficient liquidity for the eventual drop to the $60,000 target, so 'slow rise + volatility' will be the mainstream trend in the coming months. Replicating the consolidation pattern of the past 6 months and continuing for 12 months will be a high-probability event.
3. Operational strategy: Long-short hedging layout to seize short-term opportunities and lock in long-term buying windows.
Based on the above analysis, the current operational strategy's core is 'long-short hedging + flexible layout,' with the specific execution plan as follows:
Short-term bullish layout: A portion of funds has been used to buy Bitcoin, in line with the upward trend to $97,000 - $107,000 in the coming weeks, capturing phase-based profits.
Long-term short hedging: Maintain the existing short position completely open, with no closing operations. This short position is not for short-term profit, but serves as a perfect risk hedging tool—if the market experiences unexpected fluctuations, it can offset long losses and ensure overall position safety.
Profit-taking plan: When the Bitcoin price rises to the target area of $97,000 - $107,000, achieving about a 20% increase, immediately realize short-term long profits and secure them.
Reserve funds accumulation: After realizing short-term profits, convert funds into reserve funds, waiting for the subsequent ultimate decline to prepare for bottom-fishing actions in the $60,000 area.
4. Psychological analysis: The key to surviving a bear market is to combat 'emotional traps.'
During the 12-14 month bear market cycle, the greatest risk in the market is not price fluctuations but the 'emotional traps' of investors. We need to deeply consider the following core questions, which directly determine whether we can survive in a bear market and seize the final bull market opportunity:
'Bottom-fishing endurance' test: If the market continues to replicate the past 6 months of consolidation and volatility over the next 12 months, can you maintain your patience and not blindly buy at the bottom ahead of time? Most investors will lose patience during repeated volatility, either entering the market too early and getting trapped or missing the final bottom.
'Psychological tolerance' limits: The combination of long-term consolidation and periodic corrections will constantly challenge the psychological defenses of investors. Can you remain rational in the cycle of 'seemingly bottoming yet continuing to oscillate' without being driven by fear to cut losses?
'FOMO emotion' avoidance: When the future bull market starts, and the Bitcoin price breaks through historical highs and continues to rise, can you resist the fear of missing out and not chase highs? Most investors will cut losses during a bear market but will chase prices at the beginning of a bull market, ultimately missing the entire upward trend.
In summary, the current bearish trend of Bitcoin has not changed; short-term upward movements and long-term consolidation are both accumulating strength for the ultimate decline. Investors need to abandon the illusion of 'quick profits' and adopt a 'long-termism' mindset to combat emotional traps, controlling risks through long-short hedging strategies, patiently waiting during consolidation, and accurately positioning at the ultimate bottom to achieve profits in this bull-bear cycle.
#巨鲸动向 $BTC
