This week's financial circle is more lively than a Christmas party, one side is the Fed chair candidate about to 'unbox', and the other side is the 23,600,000,000 Bitcoin options expiry about to 'explode', even the US stock market clocked out early for Christmas, is the crypto world going to 'cause trouble amid the chaos' or 'be pressed down'? Let's throw the conclusion in your face: The BTC bear market hasn't changed, the short-term rise is a 'trap to entice', the ultimate target is still 60,000 dollars, entering the market now is like 'catching a flying knife halfway up the mountain'.

Let's talk macro: The Fed's new leader + GDP data, all are the 'emotional switches' of the crypto world.

The most exciting news this week is that Trump wants to select a new chairman for the Federal Reserve; Kevin Hassett is currently leading with a 54% probability; this guy is famously part of the "money printing faction" (advocating for easy monetary policy). If he takes office, it will mean issuing a "money printing license" to the market; the crypto circle will surely get a short-term rise in heat.

But don't be too happy too early; on Tuesday, we need to watch the U.S. third-quarter GDP and core PCE: if GDP exceeds expectations, it indicates the economy isn't that bad, and the Federal Reserve may "inject less liquidity"; if PCE is still high, inflation hasn't been suppressed, and "interest rate hike expectations" will have to rise; either of these two data points could explode, and the crypto circle could turn from "Christmas candy" to "a closed door" in a minute.

The more desperate thing is that U.S. stocks will end early on Wednesday and lie flat on Thursday; as liquidity shrinks, the volatility in the crypto circle will only get crazier; after all, "big funds have gone to celebrate, and the remaining retail funds can push BTC to the sky or crash it to the ground."

Key explosive scene: 23.6 billion BTC options expire; is this wave "giving money" or "pig slaughtering"?

Next Friday, 23.6 billion in BTC options will expire, which can be called the "annual horror movie of the crypto circle":

Volatility is directly maximized:

A large number of options are concentrated for settlement, either a straight pull to 96,000 (the maximum pain point) or a direct crash through 85,000; in any case, "slow rises are impossible, either soaring or kneeling";

Don't touch high leverage:

In the past few days, those with high leverage are very likely to be "liquidated in a chain"; one second you are earning money for milk tea, and the next second you are directly liquidated to "drinking the northwest wind";

Key levels determine life and death:

If it stabilizes above 100,000, it can surge to 120,000; if it falls below 85,000, it will head straight for 70,000, but remember: no matter how high it rises, it's just a "rebound firework" in a bear market; once it's over, it will be cold.

Back to BTC's trend: short-term rises are "sugar-coated bombs"; the ultimate target is still 60,000.

Many people see BTC has risen a bit recently and shout, "The bull market is back!" Wake up, this is just a "phase recovery in a bear market":

  1. In the short term, it can surge to 97,000 - 107,000, but don't be greedy; this rise is a "capital replenishment + pre-expiration inducement"; the main forces will deliberately create "false breakthroughs": for example, pushing to 100,000 to make you chase, then flipping the market and crashing, burying all the "retail investors who chased high in the middle of the mountain."

  2. Sideways trading will last for 12 months, more torturous than "enduring an eagle"; now BTC's core task is "sideways accumulation of liquidity"; simply put, it's "repeated fluctuations to wear out retail investors' patience": either cutting losses and leaving, or running at small gains; when it truly drops to 60,000, no one dares to buy the dip, and then the main forces will take action.

  3. The ultimate bottom is 60,000; entering the market now means "standing guard in advance"; counting from September 2024, the bear market bottoming will take 12-14 months; the earliest bottom will not be seen until September 2025. Buying BTC now is like "going to the train station 10 days in advance during Spring Festival"; not only is it tiring to stand, but you may also get "crushed by the crowd."

Practical operation: don't be a "bag holder"; this wave is to "earn and run + leave bullets to buy the dip".

Here are 3 survival tips for ordinary retail investors:

Sell when there's a short-term rise:

If BTC reaches 97,000 - 107,000, immediately close your long positions, don't wait for "a little more rise"; the main forces' harvesting speed is faster than you can hit the close button;

Don't use high leverage:

In the past few days, options are expiring, and volatility can directly blow up 5x leverage; if you want to play, use "spot small positions"; high leverage equals "betting your life on size."

Keep bullets ready for 60,000:

Now put the money away and wait to enter the market when it drops to 60,000; this is "picking diamonds in a bear market," not "grabbing glass shards now."

Lastly, let me say something heart-wrenching: this week's macro and options expiration are all "tools for the main force to cut leeks." You think it's a "Christmas red envelope," but it's actually an "invitation to a pig-slaughtering plate"; the key to surviving in a bear market is not "how much to earn," but "not to lose everything"; when the bottom of 60,000 comes, that's when you really "pick up a treasure."

#巨鲸动向 $BTC