Family! Recently, do you feel like staring at the market is a bit 'lame'? The buying is tepid, and the fluctuations are like a frog boiling in warm water? Don't doubt that it's because you haven't found the right rhythm; the truth may be even more painful—Bitcoin's on-chain funds have quietly 'hit the brakes'!
As an old hand in the crypto circle for many years, today I will share with you the ins and outs of this matter from the bottom of my heart. It's all valuable information, and those who understand it can avoid taking six months of detours. First, the conclusion: don't expect the market to rebound and warm up immediately. We are likely to enter a 'bottoming and standby mode', and emotional recovery will take at least 'months' to calculate.
First, let's look at the core data signals, which is something that CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has recently emphasized—Bitcoin's on-chain capital inflow is clearly weakening. Newcomers might not understand the significance of 'on-chain capital inflow'; simply put, it means: the 'real money' that was continuously entering the market before is now slowing down. You need to know that over the past two and a half years, Bitcoin's realized price (simply understood as the average cost price of actual market transactions) has been steadily rising, and this has relied entirely on continuous capital inflow to support it.
But a key change has come: Over the past month, the realized price has completely 'laid flat', neither rising nor falling, as if the pause button has been pressed. In my opinion, this is definitely not a random signal. Capital is the blood of the market; when blood flow slows down, the market's vitality naturally decreases. Many people are still hoping for a 'V-shaped rebound', and I advise everyone not to hold onto this fantasy—market sentiment recovery has never been instantaneous, especially against the backdrop of weakened capital inflow. The easing of panic and the rebuilding of confidence will take at least several months.
Some friends might ask: So what should we do now? Lay flat or cut losses? My viewpoint is: Don't panic, and don't blindly bottom-fish. For those who have positions, as long as it's not high leverage, don't follow the market sentiment to operate randomly; cutting losses now is likely to be at the lowest point. For those who want to enter the market with no positions, don't rush to 'all in'; now is not the time to pick up bargains. Patience to wait for signals is more important than anything else—such as when on-chain capital inflow begins to rise again, or when the realized price starts rising again, it's not too late to slowly position then.
To be honest, the crypto market has always been about 'rapid rises and slow declines that test the mindset'. This wave of weakening capital inflow and cooling sentiment is not a bad thing; it's like cooling down an overheated market and squeezing out some bubbles. In trading, what we rely on is not who reacts quickly, but who can endure and see accurately.
Finally, let me say something heartfelt: The next few months are likely to be a 'bottoming period'; the market will be very boring and may occasionally test a bottom again. But the more it gets to this point, the more rational we must remain, and not be swayed by small market fluctuations. I will keep a close eye on the changes in on-chain data and share with everyone as soon as there is a new signal.
If you find today's analysis useful, don't forget to like and follow, or else next time you may not find me while scrolling! How long do you think this bottoming process will last? Are you fully invested, cash, or half invested? Let's discuss your views in the comments section; let's band together to get through this bottoming period! Follow me @链上标哥 so you don't get lost!
