Brothers, don't be fooled by the slight rebound after the ETH spike! I advise you to quickly clear your positions and leave the market, or at least reduce your exposure to below 10%! Many people think this violent spike was the main players washing the market and that a rebound is imminent, but in my opinion, this is just an appetizer from the main players; the real selling has not yet begun! If you still hold onto fantasies waiting for a rebound to break even, you may end up losing everything!
Why do I say this? First of all, from the perspective of market sentiment, although there was a brief panic after the spike, the overall sentiment remains relatively optimistic. Many retail investors are still waiting to buy the dip, which is exactly what the main players want to see. The purpose of the main players in washing the market is to shake out the indecisive retail investors and concentrate the chips in their hands. Since retail investors are still actively buying the dip, it indicates that the wash is not yet complete, and the main players will definitely continue to push down until they completely crush the confidence of retail investors. Additionally, from the fear and greed index, the current index is still around 40, in a neutral range, and has not yet reached a state of extreme fear. Historically, every time a bottom appears, the fear and greed index drops below 20, so now is not the time to buy the dip.
Secondly, from the perspective of capital, the main funds have been quietly flowing out. Through capital monitoring tools, I found that in the past week, the net outflow of main funds for ETH has exceeded 1 billion USD, especially on the day of the spike, where the outflow volume reached 300 million USD. This indicates that the main players are quietly offloading while taking advantage of the market's optimistic sentiment. Some may say that there are funds entering the market after the spike? Actually, that's the main players' wash trading, aimed at creating a false impression of funds entering, attracting retail investors to follow suit and buy the dip, while they take the opportunity to sell off.
From a technical perspective, the trend of ETH is very pessimistic. Although there was a rebound after the spike, it did not break through the upper limit of the fluctuation range, and the trading volume is gradually shrinking, indicating that the rebound lacks capital support and is a false rebound. Additionally, from the daily chart, ETH has formed a 'head and shoulders' pattern, which is a very strong bearish signal; once it breaks below the neckline of the head and shoulders, the downside potential will be significant. Furthermore, the moving average system has formed a bearish arrangement, with short-term moving averages above long-term moving averages, indicating that the market is in a downtrend.
Some brothers may ask, how low will ETH drop? My judgment is that the first target is 1700, the second target is 1500, and if it breaks below 1500, it could likely drop to around 1200. Of course, this is just my personal judgment and does not constitute investment advice, but everyone must be vigilant and not have a lucky mindset.
My operational advice is: immediately liquidate all ETH long positions; if you have short positions, you can continue to hold them, but set a take-profit; if you don’t have any positions, it’s best to observe and not enter lightly. Additionally, stay away from contract trading; the market volatility is so high right now that contract trading is like gambling with your life, with a high probability of loss.
Finally, I want to remind everyone that the crypto market is a very cruel market; the main players will not show mercy just because it’s Christmas, but will instead use holidays to harvest retail investors. The most important thing now is to protect your principal; as long as the principal is still there, there is a chance for a comeback. Follow me, and I will track the flow of main funds in real-time. Once I notice the main players starting to dump, I will notify everyone immediately. If you think what I said makes sense, please quickly share it with your friends who are currently buying the dip, and don't let them jump into the fire pit again! If you feel helpless or confused in trading right now and want to know more about the crypto space and cutting-edge information, follow me@标哥说币 .
