Guys, this is incredible! Rumor has it that Trump wants to finalize the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman before Christmas.
It's important to understand that a change of leadership at the Federal Reserve is a major event that will affect the future of the world's finances.
Logically speaking, the current chairman, Mr. Bao, is out of contract in May 2026.
But why are they already looking for a successor?
There's a lot more to this than meets the eye, let Bai Ge explain it to you.
First, Trump himself went on television to declare: "The people I've chosen must support a sharp interest rate cut!"
Imagine if the US stock market closed early on Christmas Eve, when everyone was preparing for the holiday.
The news came crashing down like a thunderbolt. Was the timing of this announcement particularly deliberate?
And guys, this isn't a simple personnel appointment at all.
It was a tug-of-war between Wall Street and the White House.
Whichever side comes to power means who controls where the money goes.
Why is Trump in such a hurry to change his coach?
To put it simply: Hurry up and cut interest rates as fast as you can!
Ideally, it should drop to 1% or even lower after one year. Why?
First, the government is heavily indebted, so lower interest rates mean lower borrowing costs.
Secondly, low interest rates can stimulate the economy, which will make the midterm elections next year look good and show impressive results.
Therefore, he values most whether the candidate is "obedient" and whether their ideas align with his.
So, would Wall Street agree to him doing this? The answer is no.
Therefore, various parties on Wall Street are lobbying frantically, with big names like Dimon getting deeply involved and hedging their bets.
Their main concern is that Hassett is becoming too "White House-like," and they fear he will turn the Federal Reserve into a "second Treasury Department" for the White House.
Therefore, some forces are pushing Walsh, believing that he is an "insider" who understands the business;
Another group felt that Waller was a better choice, at least in terms of professional expertise.
The initial roster was long, but now it's basically down to three people in the "final round"—the plot twists are like a soap opera.
Hassett, one of Trump's "insiders," is an old comrade-in-arms and now heads the White House Economic Council.
He was previously considered a "nepotism hire," and Trump was supposed to be his favorite. But!
The problem lies in the fact that the "connections are too strong," which makes the market very uneasy.
If you listen to your boss so much, what about the independence of the Federal Reserve?
Therefore, his approval rating has plummeted recently, from over 80% to a precarious level.
The second is Walsh, a former Federal Reserve governor who previously worked at Morgan Stanley.
Having experienced the 2008 financial crisis, he is a seasoned Wall Street veteran.
The key is that he gained strong support from top figures such as Treasury Secretary Bessant and JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon.
Trump recently praised him as "the number one player." As a result, Walsh's popularity has soared.
The odds show that he has almost a 50% chance of winning now, and his momentum is very strong.
The third is Waller, a "powerhouse": he is currently still working as a governor at the Federal Reserve.
He was one of Trump's "own people" appointed last time, and he was among the first in the Federal Reserve to call for interest rate cuts.
Their economic forecasts are quite accurate, and their professional abilities are widely recognized by their peers. In a small survey of market professionals...
He garnered an overwhelming 80% approval rating, belonging to the category of "although low-key,
But everyone thinks he's a true expert, a dark horse.
Therefore, this pre-Christmas "leadership change" drama among the brothers...
Essentially, it's a battle for control of monetary policy for the next few years.
It is to continue the tradition of the Federal Reserve being relatively independent and making decisions based on data.
Or will it completely shift its focus to serving the political and financial needs of the White House?
The three candidates represent three different balance tendencies:
Absolutely loyal, Wall Street friendly, professional and pragmatic.
The final selection will be a product of Trump's personal preferences, pressure from Wall Street, and political balancing.
This is not merely a job change, but rather an observation of the grand economic governance logic.
A window to see if a historical shift will occur.
The most pressing question on the world's mind right now is: Will the Federal Reserve remain independent after the change of leadership?
Trump has repeatedly indicated, explicitly and implicitly, that in the future, when setting interest rates, he should first consult me.
This has quite frightened the market; what everyone fears most is the emergence of "fiscal dominance."
This means that monetary policy is no longer for the sake of economic health, but rather serves the government's borrowing needs and short-term political goals.
More pointed criticism suggests that if someone were chosen who is in cahoots with the White House,
Finance Minister Bessant may have become a "shadow chairman" remotely controlling things from behind the scenes.
A "hotline from the Federal Reserve directly to the White House" was thus established.
If that's the case, then the Fed's quantitative easing will be firmly in the hands of Trump's team.
Regarding the above viewpoints, the market is somewhat divided. On one hand, recent inflation data has cooled down.
People generally believed that further interest rate cuts next year were highly likely.
On the other hand, who the new chairman is will directly determine how "wild" the interest rate cuts can be in terms of both magnitude and pace.
Whether Trump's dream of "reducing it to 1%" can be realized depends entirely on the new captain at the helm.
The predictions from major institutions are now quite varied, with some saying there will be two drops in 2026.
Some say the rate could drop by 50 to 75 basis points. In any case, the change of leadership is a positive factor for the rate cut.
Returning to the market, the market is waiting for a signal, waiting for the so-called "Santa Claus rally".
Historically, the probability of US stocks rising during this period is close to 79%, with an average increase of about 1.3%.
It's not just a seasonal habit, but more like a touchstone for emotions:
If prices rise when they should, it means people are willing to make arrangements at the end of the year, which is a good sign for the start of next year.
If prices fail to rise when they should, it could mean that the market will remain weak for a month or even longer.
So what is the current market situation?
As the holidays approach, the activity level of real traders is declining.
High-frequency trading will decrease, and by the end of the year, most of the items that needed to be sold have already been sold.
Some year-end bonuses and passively allocated funds may gradually flow in.
Therefore, market liquidity will decrease, and volatility may be amplified.
The market's performance over the next week will largely foreshadow the opening sentiment for the first quarter of 2026.
If, during this "emotional vacuum period" at the end of the year, when liquidity is expected to recover but other news is lacking,
If the market continues to struggle to rise, then we need to be more cautious about the market outlook for early next year.
$BTC Short-term support is around 88,000, and a rebound could see a move towards 90,500.
$ETH Just broke through the 3000 resistance level, the next target is 3100, and the next target is 2850 after a pullback.
In the short term, there isn't much of a market trend in mainstream stocks, but some speculators are stirring things up in the altcoins market.
Okay, that's all for today. Recently, short-term altcoin strategies will be released via SMS. The SMS will only provide the general direction. If you want specific entry and exit points, you can join the Binance Square group to receive them. You can follow me before joining the group.
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #热门话题
