The AT market is undergoing a phase of complex movement, presenting a challenging picture for long-term investors. In the context of the current price around 0.09730, on-chain data shows a clear tug-of-war between the attempt to recover prices and ongoing capital withdrawal pressure, raising a critical question: is this a sign of an improved, stronger market version or just a different approach of speculative capital flows? Our central thesis is that the AT market is in a fragile equilibrium state, where the strength of buyers is being challenged by a substantial accumulation of short positions, requiring deep analysis of the nature of capital flow.
A deeper analysis into price movement and volume reveals that while the AT price has attempted to establish a foundation after the recent correction, with the trading volume for the most recent hour candle reaching about 154.456K, indicators of buying/selling pressure tell a different story. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) of derivative contracts is significantly negative at -95.509 million, and notably, the aggregated CVD in the spot market is even more negative, reaching -855.213 million. CVD, or the cumulative volume delta indicator, measures the total buying or selling pressure over time. This deep and persistent decline in CVD indicates that a large number of short positions have been activated and maintained, outpacing buying demand. This presents a contradiction that needs to be explained: prices may be trying to recover, but underlying withdrawal pressure remains significant, indicating a lack of strong and continuous buying momentum to sustainably push prices up. This is not an absolute negative signal but a market condition that needs to be managed, indicating that the market is in the process of absorbing a significant amount of supply.
Shifting to analyze indicators related to the derivatives market and sentiment, the picture becomes even more interesting. The current Funding Rate (position maintenance fee) is 0.0042 and is maintaining a positive level. A positive Funding Rate means that investors holding long positions are paying fees to investors holding short positions, usually a sign that optimism prevails in the perpetual futures market. However, when cross-referencing with the Open Interest (OI) index – the total value of open derivative contracts – which is around 53.148 million and tends to remain relatively stable or slightly decrease after fluctuations, we observe a different situation. The OI not spiking alongside the price recovery indicates that no large new capital is flowing robustly into derivative positions. The combination of a positive Funding Rate and stable/slightly decreasing OI may imply that short positions are being liquidated or closed, while there are cautious buying actions from the long side, rather than a wave of enthusiastic new investment. This suggests a "differentiated approach" of the market, where optimism is maintained by decreasing derivative selling pressure rather than the solid confidence of a new buying wave.
Putting together all this data, we are witnessing an AT market striving for stability amid complex capital flows. The slight price recovery with a positive Funding Rate may be a sign of a "refined version" in terms of short-term sentiment, where the market is absorbing shocks and searching for local bottoms, forcing short sellers to pay fees. However, the strong capital withdrawal pressure manifested through deep negative CVD in both the spot and derivative markets indicates a different reality: the market is still facing significant distribution. This creates a potential "liquidity trap," where short-term buy positions may be vulnerable if spot selling pressure continues to rise. For a long-term NFT holder, this serves as a reminder that asset value lies not only in short-term volatility but also in the market's ability to absorb and build a solid foundation. The absence of a sudden spike in Open Interest alongside negative CVD is an important indicator: despite positive signals regarding derivative sentiment, large capital flows have yet to confirm a sustainable growth trend.
In conclusion, the AT market is exhibiting a complex scenario, where the current price recovery can be explained by both technical factors and positive derivative sentiment, but lacks strong confirmation from spot trading volume. The two scenarios with the highest probabilities are: one, the market is undergoing a silent accumulation process, absorbing a large supply to lay the groundwork for a new growth cycle; two, this is merely a technical recovery within a larger corrective trend, driven by the liquidation of short positions and short-term speculative moves. Closely monitoring changes in CVD and Open Interest will be key to determining the true nature of the next price movement.
Big waves swallow the greedy, small waves kill the hot-headed.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
