Hey folks, have you recently been swept away by the small rebound of BTC? Do you think a bull market is coming? Wake up! I must pour cold water on you today—there is a signal that 90% of people overlook, which is quietly igniting the global market, and that is the warning of the yen's appreciation! The Japanese Finance Minister's statement, "No need to consult with the U.S., we can intervene in the exchange rate at any time," translates to: the depreciation of the yen stops here, and it's time for us to "counterattack"!
Some people may ask: What does the appreciation of the yen have to do with my trading cryptocurrencies and buying U.S. stocks? This brings us to the "yen carry trade," the "invisible pool of funds" in the global market. In a low-interest-rate environment, the yen is the "free borrowing tool" for global institutions. Borrowing yen to exchange for dollars has flowed into U.S. stocks and the crypto market for investment, which was one of the important sources of funding that kept the market hot previously.
But now, Japan is about to take action to raise the yen, which is a "fatal blow" for carry trades. My exclusive judgment is: this time the yen's appreciation is not a short-term fluctuation but a trend reversal. Previously, the yen depreciated against the backdrop of interest rate hikes, which was itself an abnormal phenomenon. Now that the authorities are intervening, they aim to bring the exchange rate back to a level that aligns with economic fundamentals. Once the yen starts to appreciate continuously, the exchange loss for institutions will become larger and larger, and it won't be a matter of "whether to close positions" but rather "must close positions immediately," and it will be a panic sell-off.
Think about it, a large number of institutions concentrating on selling U.S. stocks and crypto assets—what would that look like? U.S. tech stocks lead the decline, the liquidity in the crypto market dries up, and even if BTC and ETH want to rebound, there will be no funds to support it, and the previous rebound expectations will directly evaporate. This is not alarmism; it's the inevitable logic of capital flow—capital is always profit-seeking; once a certain loss risk appears, it runs faster than anyone else.
Finally, a reminder for everyone: Don't blindly chase highs recently, focus on the exchange rate trend of the yen against the dollar, which is more effective than any technical indicator. Once you notice the yen appreciating and forming a trend, quickly reduce your positions in U.S. stocks and crypto assets to avoid the risk of a chain reaction. I will track exchange rate data and market capital flows daily and share the latest analysis and operational suggestions here. If you feel helpless, confused in trading right now, and want to learn more about cryptocurrency and cutting-edge information, follow me@标哥说币
