This report deeply integrates forward-looking predictions from four authoritative institutions: Galaxy Research, Coinbase, a16z, and Grayscale. Institutions believe that 2026 will become the 'year of value industrialization' for the crypto economy. The market is undergoing a structural metamorphosis: officially transitioning from the 'halving cycle law' driven by retail investors to a 'sustained value growth model' led by global institutions.
I. Macroeconomic Landscape: The End of the Four-Year Cycle and the Beginning of the 'Institutional Era'
1. The Failure of Cyclical Theory: Grayscale points out that due to the systematic allocation of institutional capital, the improvement of compliance frameworks, and the popularity of Bitcoin spot products, the traditional 'halving-driven four-year cycle' may officially declare its end in 2026. The market will shift from explosive growth driven by retail to a more stable, long-term upward channel driven by institutional rebalancing.
2. The Game of Price and Rhythm:
Grayscale expects Bitcoin to set a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
Galaxy predicts it may reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.
Coinbase compares the current phase to the early internet in 1996, suggesting we are at the starting line of a long bull market.
3. Milestone of Supply Scarcity: It is expected that the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined by March 2026. This transparent and certain scarcity supply mechanism further solidifies its status as 'digital gold' amid fiat currency depreciation risks.
2. Clarity in Regulation and Institutional Entry: From Assets to Infrastructure
1. Policy Dividend Period: In 2026, legislation related to the (GENIUS Act) and bipartisan support for crypto market structure is expected to be officially implemented, establishing the legal identity of crypto assets in mainstream capital markets.
2. ETFs and Wealth Management: Currently, less than 0.5% of the wealth managed in the US is allocated to crypto assets. With due diligence completed, a massive influx of cautious institutional capital is expected in 2026, and the cumulative net inflow of spot cryptocurrency ETFs is likely to exceed $50 billion.
3. Product Diversification: Over 50 spot altcoin ETFs and various multi-asset, leveraged ETF products will emerge in the market.
4. DAT 2.0 Model: Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) will evolve into a specialized trading and procurement model focused on sovereign blockchain space, which will be regarded as a core strategic material of the digital economy equally important as electricity and computing power.
3. Technological Paradigm Shift: From Protocol Value to Application Premium
In 2026, blockchain infrastructure will transition from 'big and comprehensive' to 'specialized' and 'application-oriented'.
1. The 'Fat App' Hypothesis: Galaxy predicts that the ratio of application revenue to network revenue will double by 2026. Value capture is shifting from underlying protocols to application layers, with at least one universal L1 embedding revenue-generating applications, directing value straight to the native token.
2. The New Map of Public Chain Competition:
The market value of Solana's internet capital market is expected to soar to $2 billion, completing the transformation from a traffic center to a value center.
High-Performance Matrix: Sui, Monad, MegaETH, etc., will leverage their architectural advantages in AI micropayments and high-frequency trading to become the preferred foundation for financial-grade applications.
3. RWA 2.0 Explosion: The scale of tokenized assets is expected to grow a thousandfold in the coming years. By 2026, major banks and brokerages will begin to accept on-chain digital stocks and bonds as cross-border collateral on a large scale.
4. AI Agents and Crypto Integration
Cryptographic technology will provide necessary identity and payment infrastructure for AI agents, building an 'agent economy'.
1. From KYC to KYA: a16z emphasizes that 'Know Your Agent' will become mainstream. Utilizing cryptographic signature credentials to establish a trustworthy identity system and cooperation protocol for AI Agents.
2. Automated On-Chain Settlement: x402 standard will support high-frequency microtransactions between AI agents. Galaxy predicts that this type of automated payment initiated by AI will account for over 30% of the daily trading volume of mainstream Layer 2 networks (like Base).
3. Decentralized AI Governance: In response to the trust crisis of centralized AI, protocols like Bittensor and Story Protocol will establish the sovereignty of AI model training and intellectual property protection through decentralization.
5. The Deepening Application of DeFi, Privacy, and Prediction Markets
1. Token Economics 2.0: DeFi protocols will completely abandon the 'mining coin model' and shift to a 'cash flow valuation' model centered on fee sharing and buyback destruction. The total balance of the lending market is expected to exceed $90 billion.
2. The Unification of Privacy and Compliance: Privacy solutions are no longer opaque but a necessity for mainstream financial access on-chain. The market value of privacy-tech-supported assets is expected to exceed $100 billion by the end of 2026.
3. The Standardization of Prediction Markets: Polymarket's weekly trading volume is expected to continue exceeding $1.5 billion. Prediction markets will introduce decentralized governance and AI oracles to address the limitations of outcome determination.
4. The Rise of Fiat-Backed Assets: The settlement volume of such digital payment mediums is expected to surpass the ACH system. By 2026, at least one of the top three card organizations globally will process over 10% of cross-border settlement volume through such assets.
Summary
If the early crypto market was an isolated digital island, then the crypto market in 2026 resembles a deep-water port fully integrated into the global trade network. High-performance public chains and AI agents provide the most efficient loading and unloading tools, while a regulatory system establishes recognized port rules, and institutional capital is the fully loaded ocean giant.
The great era of Crypto has fully begun. Will you navigate at the crest of the wave or watch from the shore? Arm your investment toolbox, the countdown to the end of AICoin membership benefits for 2025 is on, immediately start your professional investment journey.
https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/vip/chartpro
Original link:
26 Bold Predictions for Crypto in 2026: Bitcoin, DeFi, Stablecoins, and AI | Galaxy
https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/market-intelligence/2026-crypto-market-outlook
17 things we're excited about for crypto in 2026 - a16z crypto
2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era | Grayscale
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