K哥的投资笔记

#美国非农数据超预期

Fortune out of misfortune? The collection rate for non-farm payrolls in November approaches a five-year high, possibly the most reliable initial estimate of the year.
Due to the government shutdown delaying the release dates of the September and November reports, businesses had more time to report payroll information, resulting in more responses collected by the agency. Some economists believe this progress is likely to improve the accuracy of the data.
Economists closely monitor the collection rate, which measures how much data has been retrieved within a month.
The collection rate for November is 73.8%, one of the highest readings in the past five years.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics attributes the rise in recent months to the extended collection period.

Latest Statistics

Such delays will reduce the magnitude of subsequent revisions.
In addition to monthly revisions, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also conducts annual revisions; a preliminary estimate for September indicates that employment numbers will be revised down by a record amount over a year ending in March. Final figures will be released early next year.
Given the high collection rate, there is reason to believe that the adjustment magnitude should be relatively small.
The likelihood of significant revisions is low, as the bureau has received most responses. If there is any benefit to this delayed non-farm report, it is that the initial estimate may be more accurate than what we have received for most of this year.
#BinanceABCs #加密市场观察

#美国非农数据超预期

December 17, 2025 Financial Breakfast

The competition for the Federal Reserve Chair has become a three-way contest; Trump will deliver a national address, and the U.S. may 'retaliate' against the EU.

The U.S. unemployment rate reached a four-year high of 4.6% in November, marking a new peak in four years.
U.S. media: Waller will be interviewed by Trump on Wednesday.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant: Speculation on the Federal Reserve Chair candidate will be announced in early January next year.
Trump will deliver a national address during prime time tomorrow, possibly previewing New Year policies.
The U.S. threatens to retaliate against the EU's digital services tax plan.

Musk will fund the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections.

Central Financial Office: Expanding domestic demand is the top priority task for next year.
National Development and Reform Commission: Vigorously enhance residents' willingness to consume, deeply implement special actions to boost consumption.
'Asian Lithium Capital' sees major movements again.
360 stirs up 'fake accounts controversy', Zhou Hongyi states: Extremely inaccurate, with severe impact.
#BinanceABCs #加密市场观察 #BinanceABCs

#美联储降息

Wall Street's famous short seller warns: The U.S. stock market may face a complete collapse in the second half of 2026, and the Federal Reserve will accelerate interest rate cuts to rescue the market!
Large tech companies in the Nasdaq will become a key factor dragging down the stock market in 2026.
The artificial intelligence boom will come to an end, while U.S. economic activity will slow significantly.
At the beginning of 2026, as the growth rate of AI applications slows, the previous assumption that artificial intelligence would significantly boost tech companies' profits will start to become highly unreliable.
The stock market decline at the beginning of 2026 will also impact the economy due to the reversal of the wealth effect.
In early 2026, as investors shift from tech stocks to non-tech stocks and from growth stocks to value stocks, the decline in the stock market may still be small. With a significant reduction in capital expenditure on artificial intelligence and a rapid rise in unemployment, "the U.S. stock market may nearly collapse across all sectors in the second half of 2026."
This series of factors will ultimately lead to the S&P 500 index closing at 5280 points in 2026, down 23% for the year, while the Nasdaq Composite index will see a decline of 31%. Additionally, as the U.S. dollar weakens, the Japanese yen will appreciate significantly, with the dollar expected to reach 115 against the yen by the end of the year. Gold prices will hit a new historical high.
The Federal Reserve will accelerate interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026.
The optimal trading strategy for 2026 is to short the Nasdaq 100 Index through Invesco's Nasdaq 100 Index ETF and go long on Invesco's 20-Year and Above U.S. Treasury Bond ETF, with this combination offering a potential return of 52%.
#BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #加密市场观察

#美联储降息
Non-farm payrolls are coming! Employment is hitting the brakes, and the Federal Reserve is waiting for a dangerous signal.
The U.S. non-farm report for November will be released on Tuesday at 21:30.
It includes all data for November as well as some data for October.
The unexpectedly strong growth in September (with a total of 119,000 new jobs that month) is unlikely to continue and emphasizes that this bright overall data is likely to be revised down.
Relevant data is likely to "fall back in the opposite direction."
A "frozen" labor market.
Neither hiring nor laying off.
The market has very little activity or personnel movement.
The current employment environment is "less active" than at the beginning of the year.
Federal Reserve officials remain highly concerned about the downside risks of the employment situation, which have increased in recent months.
Is employment growth overestimated?
Employment growth itself may be systematically overestimated. Powell stated that since April, the Labor Statistics Bureau's data may have overestimated jobs by about 60,000 per month.
This is a complex, abnormal, and difficult situation, with the labor market under pressure, and job creation may have actually turned negative.
It is not uncommon for government data to deviate, especially at turning points when the labor market is slowing or heating up.
The next step for the Federal Reserve and the labor market.
Completely conditionally waiting, observing how the economy evolves.
As the headwinds from tariffs gradually fade, the labor market will see a "moderate recovery" in 2026.
Once it turns negative, companies will really start laying off... this often leads to a snowball effect.
If significant weakness occurs, it could push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in 2026.
The key threshold is an unemployment rate reaching or exceeding 4.7%. The unemployment rate will be the "decisive variable."
Will the U.S. job market "turn around" in 2026?
The labor market is expected to continue facing challenges in the first half of the year, with the unemployment rate possibly peaking at 4.5% early in the year.
Not yet transformed into an increase in job positions.
The labor market is expected to gradually improve in the second half of 2026.
#美联储降息 #巨鲸动向 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

Time has aged the youth
Over forty, no longer young, solitary and out of place.
It's not that I was born unsociable, but weary of the deep tricks of the world.
I'm not lonely or out of place, just afraid that human feelings may not be genuine.
Daydreaming of firewood and rice, night dreaming of money, busy for half a lifetime without a break.
Who doesn't want to enjoy leisure, but life is hard to navigate.
Once had lofty ambitions, but lost time and beauty.
#ETH走势分析 #BNBChain生态代币普涨

#美联储降息

The battle for the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve has taken a new turn: Hassett faces pushback from senior officials, and the "Double Kevin" showdown is heating up.

Once viewed by the market as the "unquestionable choice," Hassett is now facing uncertainty. According to insiders, concerns about his close relationship with Trump causing market panic have led the core circle to promote another "Kevin"—former Federal Reserve governor Walsh.
Now, however, he is facing resistance from some high-level individuals who can speak to President Trump.
Sources say there are concerns that this Director of the National Economic Council has too close a relationship with the president; ironically, this is precisely why he became the frontrunner to replace the current chair, Powell.
He indicated that former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Walsh has now tied with Hassett at the top of the Federal Reserve candidate list, which has surprised investors.
This resistance is more about supporting Walsh rather than criticizing Hassett.
Dimon prefers Walsh, the former Federal Reserve governor.
As December progresses, Hassett's campaign has encountered some resistance.
Concerns that Hassett may not take sufficient measures to curb inflation during a future rebound could ultimately lead to rising long-term yields.

#美联储FOMC会议 #BinanceABCs #加密市场观察

#美联储降息

Federal Reserve's 'third-in-command': Economic acceleration in 2026, inflation 'cooling down', policy ammunition is in place.

After the third consecutive rate cut, the differences in policy paths among the Federal Reserve's senior officials have become public. New York Fed President Williams has sent stabilizing signals, stating that monetary policy is now 'well-positioned' to balance the dual risks of inflation and employment.

Monetary policy is fully focused on balancing these risks. To this end, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has shifted monetary policy from a moderately restrictive stance to neutral.

As we approach 2026, monetary policy is in a favorable position.
Economic growth next year is expected to accelerate to about 2.25% (forecast for 2025 is 1.5%). Inflation is projected to decline to slightly below 2.5% next year and reach the Federal Reserve's 2% target by 2027.

He anticipates that this report will 'basically align with what we are seeing — relatively slow job growth and signs of a gradually cooling labor market.'
Strongly supports' last week's rate cut decision.

#美联储降息

December 16, 2025 Financial Breakfast

The competition for the position of Federal Reserve Chair intensifies, as Hassett faces opposition from high-ranking officials close to Trump due to concerns about being too close to him.

The U.S. delegation insists on Ukraine handing over the Donbas region, with Ukraine set to receive security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5.
Trump claims that we are closer to reaching a 'peace agreement' than ever before.

U.S. media: The White House privately criticizes Netanyahu for violating the ceasefire agreement.

Nasdaq will officially apply for 5X23 hours of trading.

Japanese media: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75%.

Gold imports in November decreased by approximately 60%.

Musk's net worth has now reached $670 billion.

The magazine 'Qiushi' publishes an important article titled 'Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move'.

In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods in our country increased by 1.3% year-on-year.

The Foreign Exchange Administration: Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

#BinanceABCs #加密市场观察

#美联储降息

Two rate cuts and then stop? The Bank of England's easing cycle faces an end!
The interest rate critical point has been reached! Following the widely expected rate cut this week, the Bank of England will face a dilemma: how far are they from the red line of stimulating inflation? Investors bet that borrowing costs will remain around 3.4%, which means there is little room left for further rate cuts!
This level is only one to two rate cuts away from what some indicators show as the UK's 'neutral rate'.
In recent months, this nine-member committee has been evenly split between 'hawkish' and 'dovish', with Bailey becoming the decisive swing vote.
"Given that it removed the term 'prudent' from its guidance in November, we expect little change in the wording from the MPC in December, and the committee will maintain that further easing will be 'gradual'. This may reflect uncertainty regarding the equilibrium interest rate level - that is, the endpoint of the cycle. We believe the MPC will adjust its guidance in April, at which point we expect rates to be lowered again to 3.5%. By then, most decision-makers may believe that the central bank's policy stance is roughly at a neutral level.
They are trying to make this concept quite vague to retain maximum flexibility for adjusting rates on either side of the neutral level.
If data unexpectedly rises, it could disrupt the original plans at the last moment.

#加密市场反弹

#ETH走势分析

Will the Bank of Japan's “whales” turn? The 83 trillion yen ETF sell-off plan may start next month.
It has been revealed that the Bank of Japan may begin implementing its ETF reduction plan totaling 83 trillion yen as early as next month. To avoid disturbing the market, its selling pace may be exceptionally slow, and completing the entire sell-off could take up to 112 years according to its set pace.
This process is expected to take several decades to complete.
83 trillion yen (approximately 534 billion USD), with a book value of 37.1 trillion yen.
If this pace remains unchanged, the entire process will take about 112 years.
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain a stable monthly selling rhythm.

#巨鲸动向

#加密市场反弹
Stop everything and look here👀

Is stagnation followed by collapse? The U.S. labor market may face its 'darkest hour' next year
For Americans looking for jobs in 2025, the environment is challenging. And the situation in 2026 may not be much better either.
The question is not whether the market will unfreeze, but whether it will collapse.
The most likely outcome is not a dramatic break from the current situation, but a continuation of the current 'low hiring, low layoffs' environment, where both employers and job seekers will face a slowing and more selective market.”
The non-farm payroll report for November is scheduled to be released on December 16, and December's data will be available on January 9, 2026. The government is currently dealing with a data backlog caused by last month's 43-day government shutdown.
This 'low hiring, low layoffs' labor market, which makes it difficult for job seekers, seems likely to persist.
Even a mild recession would take a heavy toll on historically disadvantaged groups.
The number of new jobs in the monthly employment report is expected to remain low.
#美联储降息

Data vacuum filling is imminent, heated debates in the U.S. Treasury market: Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again next year?

A wave of data is coming! After three consecutive interest rate cuts this year, will the Federal Reserve choose to hold back next year, or will it be forced to adopt a more aggressive easing policy?
As a series of key economic data is about to be released, intense debates in the U.S. Treasury market regarding the future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are reaching a fever pitch.
These reports will help answer a core question: After three consecutive interest rate cuts, is the Federal Reserve's easing policy nearing its end, or must it take more aggressive action?
Traders are building options positions, which will profit if market sentiment shifts to betting on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the first quarter of next year.

Data is king

All of this has intensified the market's focus on the upcoming data releases. The U.S. may add 50,000 jobs in November.
The employment data released this week may carry less weight, as the government shutdown complicates data collection.
The focus has shifted to the report that will be released at the beginning of next month.
If the November data is comparable to September, it could trigger a sell-off, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.25%.
They expect the Federal Reserve to end this round of easing when rates reach around 3.2%.

New Chair

Officials also have differing views on the policy path, and like investors, they are waiting for data to indicate direction.
As Powell's term is set to end in May next year, investors' attention may soon shift from economic data to his successor.
A new chair "means the Federal Reserve will be more dovish, regardless of whether the economy is running a bit too hot.
The labor market may eventually become the excuse for rate cuts; although we expect the unemployment rate will not rise significantly, if the labor market looks a bit weak, that could be the reason for the new chair to cut rates.

#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议

#美联储降息

Hassett stated: Trump's opinions "carry no weight," the independence of the Federal Reserve's decision-making is paramount.
Hassett clearly indicated that even if selected to lead the Federal Reserve, President Trump's opinions would be "weightless" if lacking basis, and ultimately, interest rate decisions must remain independent and reached by consensus of the committee.
If he is chosen to lead the Federal Reserve, he would consider President Trump's policy opinions, but the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will remain independent.
Hassett's statement last Sunday attempted to clarify that Trump is just one of many experts that can be consulted, and he can only provide advice.
He will have no weight.

#美联储降息
December 15, 2025 Financial Breakfast

The Federal Reserve continues to play the "hawk-dove struggle," with gold and silver surging before plummeting! Trump has narrowed down the candidates for Federal Reserve Chair to two, and Zelensky compromises for a peace agreement

Debate continues within the Federal Reserve
Trump expresses a preference for selecting Waller or Hassett to succeed the Federal Reserve Chair
Zelensky: The US and Europe do not support Ukraine's NATO membership, Ukraine compromises for security guarantees
Thailand denies Trump's claim that Thailand and Cambodia agree to a ceasefire
SpaceX approves internal stock trading, with a valuation reaching approximately $800 billion
In the first 11 months, China's social financing scale increased beyond last year's total
Vice Premier: Continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and manage expectations well
In response to issues such as "large characters attract attention, small characters exempt from responsibility," the State Administration for Market Regulation has drafted enforcement guidelines
Vanke's three extensions proposals were not approved, still having a grace period of 5 working days
Moore Threads: We will never let cash management affect the normal implementation of fundraising projects and the normal development of the company's main business
#加密市场反弹

#美联储降息

FOMC two major officials explain why they oppose interest rate cuts: inflation risks are too high, and we should be more cautious!
Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee stated that he cast a dissenting vote this week because he wants to wait for more economic data to determine whether the impact of tariffs on inflation is only temporary.
The prudent approach is to wait for more information.
Inflation remains too high.
He is still optimistic that interest rates can decrease "a significant amount" next year. However, the government shutdown in October and November delayed the release of several key economic reports, which made him more concerned about recent interest rate cuts based on previous inflation data.
Paulson described the labor market as "under pressure but not collapsing."
She will have voting rights in 2026.
She continues to believe that monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, although recent easing measures will provide some cushioning for the labor market.
If the economy experiences high growth due to AI-driven productivity booms, the required policy response will differ from situations where high inflation is also a risk.
#加密市场反弹

#美联储降息
Morning News

Is the Federal Reserve's "Crown Prince" changing hands? Trump suddenly praises Warsh and says he should be consulted on interest rate decisions.
Kevin Warsh has risen to the top of the list for the next Federal Reserve Chair.
She is concerned that Trump will appoint a "puppet" as Federal Reserve Chair to execute his will.
That is, the Federal Reserve Chair should consult the President on interest rate decisions.
My opinion is insightful and should be heard.
Trump noted that Warsh largely agrees with his monetary policy stance.
Trump indeed left enough room to change his mind, pointing out that he has several excellent candidates in front of him.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on Thursday that he believes Hassett is more likely to cut rates in the near future, while he agrees with Warsh's writings on the Federal Reserve.
#加密市场反弹

#美联储降息

FOMC two major committee members explain why they oppose interest rate cuts: inflation risks are too high, caution is needed!
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that he voted against this week because he wants to wait for more economic data to determine whether the impact of tariffs on inflation is only temporary.
The prudent approach is to wait for more information.
Inflation remains too high.
He remains optimistic that interest rates can be lowered by a 'considerable amount' next year. However, the government shutdown in October and November has delayed the release of several key economic reports, which makes him more concerned about recent interest rate cuts based on previous inflation data.
Paulson describes the labor market as 'under pressure but not collapsing.'
But she will have voting rights in 2026.
She continues to believe that monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, although the recent easing measures will provide some buffer for the labor market.
If the economy experiences high growth due to an AI-driven productivity boom, the necessary policy response will be different from the situation where high inflation is also a risk.
#美联储FOMC会议

#黄金
Which hits first?
#Gold $5,000 or #Silver $100.
Both are rising
But only one will fire first.👀🔥
#白银