Glassnode's report continues to update, BTC reclaims the mean, but that $80K wall is tough to break through; let's see what this issue specifically says.
Last week, BTC made a notable move: it reclaimed $78,100, which Glassnode calls the 'True Market Mean.' Let's dive into the details: 1. The $78,100 breakout has happened, and the next wall is at $80,100.
In this chart, the light green line represents the True Market Mean, while the deep red line is the STH cost basis. BTC is currently sitting above the light green line, indicating that overall market positions have shifted from losses to slight profits — this line is a structural watershed, not just a technical indicator. The next resistance is the deep red STH cost basis line: $80,100.
BTC Simple Bands · Midline Resistance, this $78K line has blocked us in June 2014 and April 2018—now it's back again.
Adding another frame.
This chart uses Simple Bands, drawing three lines based on realized market cap: Cycle Top, Midline, Cycle Bottom. Where's BTC at right now? Just resting on the midline. Current position of the midline: about $78,000. This isn't a line drawn by technical analysis, but derived data from the overall market position cost. What has happened historically at this line? Every time there's a bounce during a bear market, there's one or multiple tests of this midline. June 2014: Price bounced back near the midline, hit resistance, then continued to dive down to the cycle bottom.
An Indian legend, his sister passed away, and he was the heir, so he went to the bank to withdraw money from her account. But the bank insisted that the account holder must be present, and they didn't care if she was deceased. So, he dug up his sister's remains and brought them to the bank, saying, "I've brought the account holder with me." The outcome was that the bank capitulated and handed him the cash, and his sister was laid to rest again.
CZ's 'Binance Life' Reading Notes · Extra Chapter 3, The Guy Who Built a Crypto World — His Principles Are Just Like Laozi and Zhuangzi's — The CZ Principles
Flipping through the principles section of (Binance Life), those phrases are so simple they give me the chills. The first rule is "Don't waste time," the second is "Don't just focus on the money," and then comes "Don't be fooled by labels"... It’s a lot like my mom nagging me about "eat well, sleep early," except when grandma finishes, she goes to dance in the square, while the guy saying this built a crypto world. 1. Time is like expired milk. "Don't waste time" — I initially thought it would be some elite tutorial like the "Pomodoro Technique" or "waking up at 4:30 AM." Turns out, his idea of "wasting" is completely different from what my mom means.
The heatmap makes it clear: the price is between two piles of explosives, with the main target below.
Liquidation heatmap for the timeframe As shown in the chart: two bright yellow zones represent two dense liquidation clusters. Above: around 80,000 There’s a stacked cluster of stop-loss orders for shorts here. If the price pushes up again, it will trigger this batch of shorts to get liquidated, creating an instant buying surge— Commonly known as a "short squeeze." The price might sweep this high point again. Below: around 72,000 The yellow here is brighter and thicker than above. That’s a stop-loss zone for longs. A lot of leveraged long liquidations are concentrated in this range. This is the main target.
Four cycles, all bottoms spaced 1428 days apart. Some might ask: 'Will it be the same this time?'
Check out this chart, notice any patterns? Bottom to bottom: 1428 days. 1428 days. 1428 days. Three times, no deviation. ATH to ATH: 1477 days, 1428 days, 1428 days. The first time was a bit off, but the last two were spot on. It's not just about time. The drop is also systematically shrinking: First round: -86.60% Second round: -84.20% Third round: -77.39% Fourth round (current): -59.13% With each round, the maximum drop is getting smaller. This isn't random. It's the process of market maturation; every time a new batch of long-term holders comes in, the bottom gets propped up a bit. So where are we now?
CZ's 'Binance Life' Book Notes Series · Part 14, No Registered Place, No Headquarters, How Does This Company Survive?
After 9/4, Binance left China. Then it was Japan. Then Malta. Then Singapore. Every time I settle down, it's never more than a few years before I have to find a new place to land. It's not because of poor management. It's because the regulators are always on the hunt. For a while, Binance didn't even have a formally registered 'home country'. The team is spread out all over the globe. No headquarters, no city called 'Binance's home'. A lot of folks see this as a weakness—how can a company without roots be stable? CZ doesn’t see it that way. He mentioned in the book that this was actually a deliberate design.
Bear market bottoms are never just one—Price Oscillator says: the first is just confirmed, the third is the real bottom.
There's an indicator worth tracking: BTC Price Oscillator.
Its historical pattern is quite clear— In a bear market, it's not a single bottom, but rather three lows. The third one is the real cycle bottom. Historically, it's been the same three times: May 2014 · First Low April 2018 · First Low March 2022 · First Low Now: April 2026. This time's first low has been dragging on for a while, still trying to confirm. But from the latest chart, it has finally locked in.
CZ's 'Binance Life' Reading Notes Series · Part XIII, 7000 Bitcoins Disappeared Overnight—He Almost Did Something That Could Rewrite Blockchain History
May 7, 2019, late night. The Binance security team discovered: 7000 Bitcoins went missing. It wasn't a system glitch; it was a heist. Hackers used phishing, malware, and a sophisticated combo of attacks to bypass multiple layers of security and make off with the funds. At the time, that was around 40 million dollars. CZ woke up to this number. Then he did something that shook the entire crypto community— He publicly discussed: should we rollback the Bitcoin blockchain? The rollback logic goes like this: If Bitcoin miners collaborate, they can 'rollback' the chain to before the theft, bringing those 7000 BTC back.
CZ's 'Binance Life' Book Notes Series · Part Twelve, Sequoia Capital Arrived, CZ Said: No Thanks
When Sequoia Capital came knocking, Binance had just launched not long ago. Back then, traffic was skyrocketing, servers were crashing every day, and the team was in a real scramble. Any normal founder, seeing top-tier VCs throwing money their way, would definitely discuss first before making a move. CZ had nothing to say. They had a discussion. The talks fell apart. There’s only one reason: control. VCs want equity, they want board seats, they want a certain level of influence. What CZ wanted was: this company, I call the shots. The accounts on both sides just didn't add up. Sequoia later sued Binance. It’s said that they already had some kind of agreement, but CZ backed out and demanded compensation.
BTC Cycle Analysis · Second Low Point: "This Time is Different"—it's this phrase that has kept the halving cycle theory intact for 16 years
After five cycles, is the sixth one just the same old show? Why has the halving cycle theory remained pretty solid over 16 years? It's not because Bitcoin is a machine, the path is always the same. On the contrary— It's because each round, there's someone with a different perspective. It's this doubt that leads most to either sit on the sidelines or short at every critical juncture. It's precisely this waiting and shorting that provides the ammo needed to fuel the next rally. Round and round, 16 years, intact. So, where are we now? Check the chart.
Bear Bands + Golden Ratio Multiplier + Realized Market Cap
74,000 has risen well, but Glassnode says: this recovery lacks one thing
This week, Glassnode released an analysis report with a core judgment that can be summed up in one sentence: This recovery is real, but fragile. To put it simply: First checkpoint: 81,000 BTC is currently around 74,000, which is still 5.2% away from the 'real market average' of 81,000 above. This price isn't just a randomly drawn line. It is the average cost basis of all active supply, the 'cost averaging price' for the entire market. Historically, bear market rebounds often encounter the first wave of intense selling pressure here— Because those who were trapped above start to flee as they see their breakeven point approaching.
History never repeats itself, but it rhymes—this time the rhyme surprised even me.
"Investor Confidence Index towards Trends" (data source: Glassnode)
From the chart, it almost shows a fluctuation pattern that is completely consistent with the previous cycle. Two structural segments, each marked with four nodes ①②③④, following a highly consistent path. It's just compared to the period from December 2021 to January 2022, Now this segment is more 'mini', with a shorter span (personal judgment related to the institutions present). Key data: As of April 20, the deviation of the red zone from returning to the upper zero axis almost identical to October 22, 2022. What does that mean?
CZ's 'Binance Life' Book Notes Series · Part Ten, The Policy Window Closes in 10 Days — They Chose to Sprint
On September 4, 2017, China announced: ICOs are illegal and will be completely halted. Binance had not officially launched at that time. To be precise, there are still 10 days until the launch. Once this regulatory order was issued, the entire circle exploded. Most people's first reaction was: It's over, let's stop and see. CZ's reaction was: We must rush out before the window closes. The logic is simple: the policy targets ICOs, not the exchanges themselves. But the window period won't wait for anyone. After the regulatory announcement, the follow-up speed will only get faster, and the operating space will only get narrower.
CZ《Binance Life》Reading Notes · Extra Chapter 2, Spent a few days reading carefully and casually noted down 70 quotes
Great people respect time and make full use of it. Even in prison, one will utilize time to organize their memoirs. Spent a few days reading carefully and casually noted down quotes from it. — About Time and Focus 1. Being present is eighty percent of success (\u003ca-188\u003eCZ(Binance Life) Reading Notes Series · Part Four, "Being present is eighty percent of success."</a-188>). 2. Never interrupt your own momentum. 19. Time could have been spent on more constructive things. 31. I have become intolerant of people and things that waste time, and I have started to optimize time in various aspects.
It rises as soon as it's said - the 4-hour line has just formed a standard diagram of an effective test
Just mentioned ( BTC 行情连续分析20260419 · 两个月震荡终于到了验证时刻——铁头做空的人,才是这波最好的燃料 ) that 75000 is the key pressure support exchange node. The market has just given an answer. Let's take a look at what happened on the 4-hour chart: After breaking through 75000, the price surged all the way to 78333, and then started to pull back. The target for the pullback is that red line - the pressure support exchange level near 75000. The pullback is in place, it didn't break down, and it bounced back directly. Now it is at 76048. This is a textbook-level effective test:
Continuing from the previous analysis (latest market analysis) 👉BTC 行情连续分析20260419 · 两个月震荡终于到了验证时刻——铁头做空的人,才是这波最好的燃料
CryptoSighted
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Continuing from my post yesterday, the breakthrough at the position of 75000 failed. From the 4-hour candlestick perspective (corresponding to yesterday's daily candlestick), there are profit-taking orders at this position (the candlestick corresponds to the spot market). If it were up to me from a contract perspective, I would take profit. With profit-taking orders, this position above is like a needle. Currently, the candlestick gives us this answer: the spot market needs to continue to gather strength, and the contracts need fuel. There will be people shorting at this position. When those shorting turn into fuel, the pressure level will break through and transition from pressure to support, which is a natural outcome. Follow me for continuous updates on the recent key trends. {spot}(BTCUSDT)
#Bitcoin #BTC行情 #On-chain data #周期分析 #技术分析 $BTC $BNB
BTC Market Continuous Analysis 20260419 · Two Months of Fluctuation Finally Reached the Verification Moment——Only those who short with iron heads are the best fuel for this wave.
Continuous analysis of the market, continuing from the previous articles. Time to pull back first. More than two months ago, I mentioned in a post: the 65000 position is the most critical pressure support and resistance exchange point in this round of adjustment. If it holds, it's the bottom; if it doesn't, then it's really problematic. Then, after almost two months, it fluctuated between 65000 and 75000, and the price was grinding in this range (the market really tests people's patience). The grinding process is tough, but it is meaningful. The chips are changing hands, those who lack patience are leaving, while those with strong conviction are stepping in. Now, 75000 has broken through.
CZ 'Binance Life' Reading Notes Series · Part Eight, the person who later stood on the summit of thousands had once gotten stuck when he opened his mouth
CZ has a passage in the book that is rarely mentioned. When he was fourteen or fifteen, he had severe stuttering. Every time he tries to speak, he often gets stuck. The more critical the situation, the more likely he is to stutter. He found a therapist. That person has a dent on his brow ridge, left from a car accident, and his vision isn't very good. CZ visits him twice a week. After a while, his stuttering basically improved. The therapist taught him a technique called 'soft onset': Gently pronounce the starting sound of each word, don’t force it. CZ mentions in the book that he still occasionally stutters when speaking, but he knows how to cope with it now.
CZ's 'Binance Life' and the wounds it didn't fully address, an epilogue
(Binance Life) provides a rare internal perspective. From CZ's own pen, we see the most genuine cracks in this world's largest cryptocurrency exchange — he has almost packaged all crises into 'we made it through', with a restrained tone and a light narrative. But behind those understated paragraphs lie a few wounds that have never truly healed. These dilemmas do not only belong to Binance, but are a bill that the entire cryptocurrency industry must inevitably pay in the process of transitioning from wild growth to a highly regulated era. Seven years of exile and expulsion history Shanghai, Tokyo, Malta, Singapore, Dubai.