[Market Analysis] Last week’s bottom fish and rebound fully achieved the first target, basically completing the second target ①#BTC Last week, the old trader believed the technicals showed a bottom, and it wasn't suitable to keep shorting. I suggested that everyone could consider taking some long positions for bottom fishing, with the first rebound target at 62500, which has already been hit; the second target is 65000, which is close to completion, peaking at 64234. Overall, the judgment of a bottom with a rebound was correct. ② Looking ahead, the old trader took a position on CME and found the recent gap for everyone, but this gap seems a bit odd. I’m not sure if it’s due to technical reasons, as the gap is quite large, with a potential fill limit reaching even 70000, so this gap is worth noting. $BTC ③ CME's pricing power is beyond doubt. The old trader has been pointing out the BTC gap above 81000 since April and May, and it indeed proved effective as the gap was filled, bouncing from 60000 to 82000 to fill the gap, randomly ending the rebound with a sharp drop. So, how much can this gap be filled this time?
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[Market Analysis] The market has finally returned to a bearish rhythm, and it seems the decline has slowed down. What's the outlook? ①#BTC From a technical standpoint, RSI has been consistently below 8 (below 20 is oversold, and below 10 indicates a bottom at the same time level). SRSI is continuously approaching 0, signaling extreme oversold conditions, which generally indicates that the market needs to correct. This correction can manifest as low-level consolidation or a rebound. ②$BTC This morning saw a corrective rebound in the range of 61500-62000. Whether we can continue this rebound depends on observing the 4-hour and daily selling volume to see if it decreases, and whether the price can stop falling. This is a characteristic of waning bearish momentum, as there isn’t enough substantial trading volume to support a one-sided move. This could lead to a potential local bottom. Additionally, combining this with MACD to check for multiple bullish reversals, as well as the pressure from upper MA and EMA moving averages, will help determine the extent of the rebound. ③ Old Jin believes that conservatively, it's best to stay on the sidelines this weekend and wait for Monday's updates on the daily and weekly charts to better assess whether next week's market can pause its decline and experience a small rebound. Based on probability and the current indicators, Old Jin leans towards a rebound scenario that can be traded. Therefore, a safe entry point for long positions is between 59600-60000, which is a low range. Even if there isn’t a rebound, the cost of exiting long positions is very low. If we start to see a weekly-level rebound next week, the targets for BTC's rebound would sequentially be 62500-65000. The risk-to-reward ratio is decent, and the stop-loss level is minimal.
The first bounce target of 62500 has been hit for $BTC . Let's see if we can hold this level next week and make a run for 65000. If you're just in for a short-term long position, you can take profits and cash out at 62500.
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[Market Analysis] The market has finally returned to a bearish rhythm, and it seems the decline has slowed down. What's the outlook? ①#BTC From a technical standpoint, RSI has been consistently below 8 (below 20 is oversold, and below 10 indicates a bottom at the same time level). SRSI is continuously approaching 0, signaling extreme oversold conditions, which generally indicates that the market needs to correct. This correction can manifest as low-level consolidation or a rebound. ②$BTC This morning saw a corrective rebound in the range of 61500-62000. Whether we can continue this rebound depends on observing the 4-hour and daily selling volume to see if it decreases, and whether the price can stop falling. This is a characteristic of waning bearish momentum, as there isn’t enough substantial trading volume to support a one-sided move. This could lead to a potential local bottom. Additionally, combining this with MACD to check for multiple bullish reversals, as well as the pressure from upper MA and EMA moving averages, will help determine the extent of the rebound. ③ Old Jin believes that conservatively, it's best to stay on the sidelines this weekend and wait for Monday's updates on the daily and weekly charts to better assess whether next week's market can pause its decline and experience a small rebound. Based on probability and the current indicators, Old Jin leans towards a rebound scenario that can be traded. Therefore, a safe entry point for long positions is between 59600-60000, which is a low range. Even if there isn’t a rebound, the cost of exiting long positions is very low. If we start to see a weekly-level rebound next week, the targets for BTC's rebound would sequentially be 62500-65000. The risk-to-reward ratio is decent, and the stop-loss level is minimal.
【ZEC Market Analysis】Last time we analyzed BTC, and the overall logic is pretty much the same; we're seeing a collective downtrend, generally in sync for the short term!\n① Technical analysis is similar to BTC; I won't go into too much detail here, but if you're interested, check out my plaza.\n② Straight to the results, here are two trading strategies for going long and short: \na: Going long, the entry points between 305-330 are likely viable; this range is a bit wide, so keep an eye on the charts over the weekend and scale in based on your position size. The rebound target is 400-435, with a stop loss at 295. \nb: Going short, if the market rebounds as expected, wait to enter short above 420. It might rebound as high as 450-460, so calculate your position sizing and scale in accordingly, with a stop loss at 468. $ZEC \n
[Market Analysis] The market has finally returned to a bearish rhythm, and it seems the decline has slowed down. What's the outlook? ①#BTC From a technical standpoint, RSI has been consistently below 8 (below 20 is oversold, and below 10 indicates a bottom at the same time level). SRSI is continuously approaching 0, signaling extreme oversold conditions, which generally indicates that the market needs to correct. This correction can manifest as low-level consolidation or a rebound. ②$BTC This morning saw a corrective rebound in the range of 61500-62000. Whether we can continue this rebound depends on observing the 4-hour and daily selling volume to see if it decreases, and whether the price can stop falling. This is a characteristic of waning bearish momentum, as there isn’t enough substantial trading volume to support a one-sided move. This could lead to a potential local bottom. Additionally, combining this with MACD to check for multiple bullish reversals, as well as the pressure from upper MA and EMA moving averages, will help determine the extent of the rebound. ③ Old Jin believes that conservatively, it's best to stay on the sidelines this weekend and wait for Monday's updates on the daily and weekly charts to better assess whether next week's market can pause its decline and experience a small rebound. Based on probability and the current indicators, Old Jin leans towards a rebound scenario that can be traded. Therefore, a safe entry point for long positions is between 59600-60000, which is a low range. Even if there isn’t a rebound, the cost of exiting long positions is very low. If we start to see a weekly-level rebound next week, the targets for BTC's rebound would sequentially be 62500-65000. The risk-to-reward ratio is decent, and the stop-loss level is minimal.
After the strict regulations on overseas investments in US stocks, there's now a complete framework to restrict retail traders in the crypto space. It seems like even normal trading is under scrutiny now, right? No way!
#LAB is definitely starting to squeeze, negative funding rates are climbing, and fees are now deducted every hour. Currently, smart money indicates that the big players are still holding several tens of millions in contract positions, and the market isn't over yet! Everyone be cautious about shorting $LAB
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【The Phantom Star Returns, the Phantom Coin Resurfaces】#LAB is being maneuvered by the same players behind $RAVE . Now, after $LAB has been grinding for so long, the fangs are finally showing! Previously, lab has been grinding with costs always positive, and after the rave, it's tough to get scammed. But after the big platforms reorganized, we finally got the chance to see a major dip, leading everyone to think that this time it's really going down, tricking people into shorting. Now, lab's costs have finally turned negative for the first time ever, slowly heading towards -2%. In the future, they plan to deduct every hour. This crazy wave from lab could still replicate the rave. The Phantom Star is back! $LAB
【The Phantom Star Returns, the Phantom Coin Resurfaces】#LAB is being maneuvered by the same players behind $RAVE . Now, after $LAB has been grinding for so long, the fangs are finally showing! Previously, lab has been grinding with costs always positive, and after the rave, it's tough to get scammed. But after the big platforms reorganized, we finally got the chance to see a major dip, leading everyone to think that this time it's really going down, tricking people into shorting. Now, lab's costs have finally turned negative for the first time ever, slowly heading towards -2%. In the future, they plan to deduct every hour. This crazy wave from lab could still replicate the rave. The Phantom Star is back! $LAB
[Trend Analysis] The monthly candlestick pattern for Bitcoin in May is a shooting star, with a long upper wick. In June, we're likely to see narrow fluctuations. Other weaker major altcoins are starting to show signs of reverting to a bearish trend. Currently, ZEC and BNB are the strongest. Historically, BNB tends to perform in the opposite direction of other major coins, and based on the current large-scale analysis, it's likely to bounce back in this range or even higher over the next two to three months before returning to a downtrend. As for ZEC, it remains very strong; there are many big miners behind it promoting its mining rigs, driving up the price and making miners feel that the current price makes for a short payback period on their rigs. Once they've sold enough machines, the price is expected to drop. Generally, quarterly settlements see a lot of active settlements wrapping up in the first half of the last month of the quarter, which means early June. The leftover passive settlements typically occur around the end of the month. Usually, the end of a quarter and the beginning of a new one are times when major players rebuild their positions. #BTC $BTC $ZEC
#BTC走势分析 As Old Jin said, the daily chart is consolidating, waiting for the Bollinger Bands to open downwards. If it breaks below around 74800, it has already bounced back, with the highest retracement testing 75300-75500. $BTC
After four years, the central authority has taken action on offshore finance again, similar to the past when Bitcoin was completely banned. The focus has always been on capital outflows, so let's stop talking about the issues with Bitcoin. Is the financial sector going to go into isolation? Or will they concentrate on solidifying domestic finance first before moving onto international markets and fully opening up?
Join Old Jin's chatroom, the QR code for the chatroom is in the pinned post! Yesterday, the chatroom signaled a rebound on the daily candles at 78000-78200, and today’s high just hit 78200. More trading analysis in the chatroom! #BTC走势分析 $BTC
【BTC Analysis】#BTC走势分析 hasn't opened up, entering a consolidation phase ① The BTC daily RSI has hit the floor, and the Bollinger Bands aren’t expanding; it’s stuck in a tight range, consolidating between 76300-77400. The small bounce here is optional for trading. ② If BTC drops below the current price, there’s moving average support at 74700-74900. You can set buy limit orders here to catch a small bounce. $BTC
[BTC Analysis] #BTC走势分析 Short-term BTC Support and Trading Strategy ① BTC has been under pressure from the daily MA200, repeatedly testing the MA200 line without breaking through, leading to further declines. The MA200 is often regarded as the lifeline of BTC's major trend, also known as the bull-bear dividing line. ② Currently, the first support level for BTC on the downside is around 76500. Above this price, you can try to go long and wait for a rebound, with a stop-loss set 100-200 below 76500. The stop-loss is quite tight, and the risk-reward ratio looks decent. ③ If the price breaks below 76500, the second support level is around 74900, which is also near the daily MA60. Here, you can continue to try going long, but a break below 76500 likely means that the big rebound for Q2 may also be over, unless some positive news drives the US stock market, which could help Bitcoin to continue its rebound and potentially hit the ideal target of 90k. $BTC
【#BTC走势预测 】BTC might be brewing the next big drop structure! ① The bear markets of 2022 and 2026 display eerily similar descending structures, with comparable drop magnitudes and identical key rebound points. This isn’t just a simple case of ‘carving a boat to catch a sword’; it’s a structural convergence that holds some serious reference value. ② In both 2022 and 2026, the first segment of the big drop structure started from the peak and slid down, creating a fake-out step before continuing down until a 50% drop was achieved, cutting the price in half from the top, thus finding the bottom and ending the first major drop, initiating a stage bottom rebound. From the 2022 peak of 69k down to 33k (-52%), rebounding to 49k (+49%); in 2026, from 126k down to 60k (-53%), rebounding to 82.8k (+38%). It might weaken and fail to reach higher rebound levels, but if it meets the +49% mark, it should bounce back to around 90k. ③ Similarly, the large-scale drop is hitting the Bollinger Bands' turning point and is being suppressed downward by the MA30 moving average. We’ll need to watch if a new downward Bollinger Band opens up later. $BTC
【#BTC走势分析 】After filling the gap, it faced resistance and pulled back. What's next? ① The probability of filling the large gap on CME for BTC is extremely high. After filling the gap, it's been hanging around the high for a few days, consistently struggling to break through 83000 and being tightly suppressed by the daily MA200, leading to a market correction. ② Currently, the potential safe support for BTC during this pullback is above 76500. It shouldn't drop below 76500; otherwise, the rebound will be completely over. ③ If BTC maintains above 76500 during this adjustment, there's hope for it to break through the resistance at 83500 and target 86300. Only after reaching 86300 can we possibly achieve the biggest rebound target of the quarter at 92000.$BTC
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【BTC Analysis】#BTC has finally filled the gap, what's next? ① Good things come to those who wait; BTC has finally climbed to 81500, filling the gap on CME, reaffirming the high certainty of CME gap fills. ② Currently, BTC faces a resistance line on the weekly chart at 83550. We might see a brief pullback here, but I believe the bull run in Q2 isn't over yet. 83550 acts as a weekly resistance and will likely face some pressure. If we see sideways movement or a tight consolidation, that's a sign of a strong trend. This resistance could very well be a fuel station for a potential short squeeze. ③ If we break through the weekly resistance, BTC will enter a rapid uptrend. I think we'll at least see it around 89000, with a good chance of hitting 91500-93500 as a phase peak. $BTC
[ZEC Analysis] 500 hit, aiming for 600, is there a chance to see a new high of 800 this month? ① Back in April, I pointed out that #ZEC would be a leading indicator around 330; once we broke through the trendline, we’d have a bullish run towards 500. In just a week, we saw an 80% surge—didn’t expect it to happen so quickly, and now we’re about to hit 600. ② Right now, ZEC is likely in the later stages of the second profit-taking phase. While I believe we could see a new high above 800 this month, playing it safe, it’s wise to take some profits off the table. Today’s market is surging under extreme overbought conditions, which signals a potential top. Taking profits is a reasonable move. ③ With ZEC's rise, it’s likely that ZEN and DASH will also follow suit, but since most attention and capital are focused on ZEC, ZEN and DASH may lag behind and not react immediately. Keep an eye on them. In summary, at the current price near 600 for ZEC, it’s time to take some profits; consider selling a portion of your spot holdings, while leaving some to wait for that new high above 800. Also, stay alert for any BTC pullbacks that could drag the market down.
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【ZEC Analysis】ZEC has been the leading edge of the market since the end of last year, showing clear and high volatility as a secondary mainstream. Analyzing ZEC effectively means analyzing 80% of the main market trends. ①#ZEC quickly broke through the bottom in the past few weeks, completely exiting the low valley range, leading to intensified long and short positions, and subsequently triggering a bullish market rally. This indicates that ZEC has bid farewell to the previous downtrend, with bulls gaining momentum, and the MACD on the weekly chart showing a golden cross turning bullish, suggesting that the price will continue to hold high. ②$ZEC , while currently at a high price, is being pressured by downward trend lines on the weekly chart. For the past two to three weeks, the market has been locked in a wide range between 300-360, and currently facing resistance and a downward move, indicating that the market needs adjustment. Therefore, this week and next week will be critical time points for ZEC. Whether it can maintain this wide range without breaking down and gradually break through the trend line will determine the potential for higher price increases. ③ZEC is the leading edge of the Bitcoin market. A pullback is expected by the end of this month, but overall, during Q2, the old gold believes it will continue to rise, although uncertainties from external events need to be monitored. If ZEC can break through the trend line, the next upward target will be $500.
Let’s revisit trend analysis. With the same bearish structure, whether we can expect a dip depends on whether the rebound can top out around the 90k mark before a downturn.
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[Replay] 🎙️ [Lao Jin's Talks] Analysis of the Bitcoin Cycle, How to View the Short Term, How to View the Long Term?
【BTC Analysis】#BTC has finally filled the gap, what's next? ① Good things come to those who wait; BTC has finally climbed to 81500, filling the gap on CME, reaffirming the high certainty of CME gap fills. ② Currently, BTC faces a resistance line on the weekly chart at 83550. We might see a brief pullback here, but I believe the bull run in Q2 isn't over yet. 83550 acts as a weekly resistance and will likely face some pressure. If we see sideways movement or a tight consolidation, that's a sign of a strong trend. This resistance could very well be a fuel station for a potential short squeeze. ③ If we break through the weekly resistance, BTC will enter a rapid uptrend. I think we'll at least see it around 89000, with a good chance of hitting 91500-93500 as a phase peak. $BTC
#BTC走势分析 BTC shot up to 81500, filling the largest gap above on CME. There's resistance at 83500, where we've not only filled the gap but also hit a weekly resistance level. Be cautious of potential profit-taking around the 83500 target; a pullback might be in the cards! $BTC
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$BTC ①Once again challenging $78000, the peace talks are postponed, and the ceasefire continues. What was thought to be a failure of peace talks has instead become a favorable delay. The news is merely a catalyst; the essence remains the quarterly trend market, with the general direction being a rebound. Bitcoin is filling the CME gap of $79000-81200; how much longer will it take? Can it successfully surge before the end of the month? The optimistic bullish sentiment still determines that an increase is highly probable. In the current trend market, the margin for error in going long far exceeds that of going short. ②At the end of this month, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on April 30. This should be Powell's last meeting, marking a turning point in the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rates this year. ③$SOL $ZEC still has the potential for a price increase among mainstream trading products. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the strongest, especially with the recent surge in meme popularity on Ethereum, continuously bringing traffic to Ethereum. In portfolio allocation, it is essential to hold both Bitcoin and Ethereum. #BTC走势分析
【ZEC Analysis】Dipped to 325, but didn't reach near 300 ①#ZEC previously warned about the downside risk, and it fell to the first support level at 325, going lower to close at 316, without continuing closer to 300. The three-day moving average shows a double top pullback, which might be a sudden brake for the bulls here. ②Currently, the resistance level for a rebound is around 337. If it breaks through and gains strength, this sudden brake for the bulls stuck between 325 and 300 could indicate a trend reversal. If you entered at 325, for a short play, you might want to take profits around 335. If you're looking to gamble on a breakout, consider taking some profits and holding the rest, as the May Day rally might be starting. $ZEC