The Bank of Japan is about to raise interest rates! Will BTC plummet to 80,000 or rebound to 90,000? Sharing my response strategy
Brothers, today is December 19, 2025, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate decision is about to be announced! The market expects a high probability of an increase from 0.5% to 0.75%, which may trigger tightening global liquidity and increased volatility in the crypto market (remember the last time during the Fed's tightening cycle, BTC was directly halved). Current BTC price: around 85,500USD, with slight fluctuations in 24h, and clear signs of RSI being oversold. My view: - If the rate hike is moderate (only 25bp), after market digestion, BTC is likely to rebound, targeting 87,000-88,000. - If it exceeds expectations aggressively, it may test the 84,000 support in the short term, or even dip to 83,000.
Current market snapshot 🚀 BTC/USD current price is around 86,100-87,500 USD (fluctuating in real-time, the 24h high once reached 90,000+, now slightly retraced). The 24-hour increase is about 1.7%, but it has recently pulled back 7% from the high of 94,000+. Overall, it is in a phase of consolidation with fluctuations. Institutional ETF inflows still provide support, but year-end selling pressure and the correlation with tech stocks have increased volatility. Key technical level 📊 - Support: 86,000 USD (primary), 83,000-85,000 USD (secondary, if broken may test 80,000). - Resistance: 88,000-90,000 USD (primary breakout level), 92,000-94,000 USD (returning upward).
Trailing stop losses can be used in many technical methods: • You can use the low points of candlestick patterns as new stop loss points, such as moving the stop loss to the lowest price of the most recent three candlesticks (but never against the direction of the trade). • You can use a very short-term moving average and take the average value as the trailing stop loss value. • You can use the chandelier stop method, moving the stop loss upward by a specific distance each time the market makes a new high, with this distance calculated based on ATR (Average True Range). As long as the stock price makes new highs, move the stop loss up by a certain distance; this method is like hanging a chandelier from the ceiling (this method has been introduced in "Entering My Trading Room"). • Parabolic stop loss. • Safety zone stop loss. • Retracement ratio stop loss. • Time stop loss; if the price does not change within a certain period, then stop loss. For example, in a day trade, if the stock price has not clearly changed according to your expectations within 10 to 15 minutes, it is best to close this trade; if you are doing a swing trade and expect the stock price to last several trading days, but a week has passed and the stock price is still consolidating, this indicates that the price has not confirmed your judgment, and the safe approach is to exit quickly.
BTC Today's Trading Plan (December 17, 2025) Current Market Overview The current price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is around $87,700 (real-time fluctuations are between $85,500 and $88,000), with an increase of about 2% in the past 24 hours. - Down approximately 30% from the historical high of $126,000 in October, recently fluctuating in the range of $80,000-$90,000. - Market Sentiment: Cautious in the short term (Fear & Greed Index shows extreme fear), influenced by the pressure from the AI sector in U.S. stocks, Federal Reserve policies, and macroeconomic uncertainties. - Key Dynamics: Institutional whales are accumulating at low levels, companies like MicroStrategy continue to increase their holdings, but there are signs of outflows in ETF funds, and overall liquidity is low.
Support and pressure are based on two important emotions—pain and regret. Those who bought at the upper edge of the range experience significant pain when the price falls, and they wait for the price to rebound, so they do not sell. When the price rebounds near the buying price, they choose to sell immediately. Those who short are also waiting for the price to rebound to short, and they regret not shorting earlier; this feeling of regret makes them short again when the price returns to the initial level they wanted to short. These two emotions create the upper edge of the range. The emotions of pain and regret prevent the price from breaking out upwards.
Only two types of people know the top and bottom: one type is those who trade on paper charts, and the other is those who lie about trading conditions. For traders who trade with real money, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.