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Evolution of the Prediction Model into the Trading Model
The preliminary quantitative model that was previously built has recently been updated.
Today's BTC quantitative score is 32.5, see the direction and conclusion below.
Mainly added a trading module to the previous function of trend judgment.
Includes daily suggestions for entry positions based on direction, take profit and stop loss suggestions, position and leverage suggestions.
Then today, it added tracking and management for open positions, providing suggestions for increasing or decreasing positions based on daily data scores.
It is considered a further improvement of the preliminary model, and the main logic can currently be divided into three layers.
1. Trend Layer
Today's BTC quantitative score is 32.5, see the direction and conclusion below.
Mainly added a trading module to the previous function of trend judgment.
Includes daily suggestions for entry positions based on direction, take profit and stop loss suggestions, position and leverage suggestions.
Then today, it added tracking and management for open positions, providing suggestions for increasing or decreasing positions based on daily data scores.
It is considered a further improvement of the preliminary model, and the main logic can currently be divided into three layers.
1. Trend Layer
See original
Sun Yuchen: Why Do Most People Work Hard but Remain Poor?-1
The cause of the matter is this: I observed that whether on the domestic Douyin platform or on the foreign X, topics related to Brother Sun have a lot of traffic.
There is even a sister on Douyin who successfully started her account by shouting, 'Sun Yuchen, I want to have your baby' right from the beginning.
Moreover, as a fan of Brother Sun, he was able to go from Qinghai all the way to Peking University, then to the United States, and ultimately reach the corporate level and even outer space.
I regard Brother Sun as a role model in my life, so I plan to start a new series.
I will do a complete follow-up on Brother Sun's early podcast program (Sun Yuchen: The Path to Financial Freedom Revolution), listening to 1-2 episodes daily, and extracting thoughts and viewpoints worth pondering and recording, while also adding my own opinions.
There is even a sister on Douyin who successfully started her account by shouting, 'Sun Yuchen, I want to have your baby' right from the beginning.
Moreover, as a fan of Brother Sun, he was able to go from Qinghai all the way to Peking University, then to the United States, and ultimately reach the corporate level and even outer space.
I regard Brother Sun as a role model in my life, so I plan to start a new series.
I will do a complete follow-up on Brother Sun's early podcast program (Sun Yuchen: The Path to Financial Freedom Revolution), listening to 1-2 episodes daily, and extracting thoughts and viewpoints worth pondering and recording, while also adding my own opinions.
See original
Jump out of non-farm data and directly observe the changes in market expectations for interest rate cuts.
#降息期待 #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC
Yesterday's non-farm data aligns well with my previous analysis regarding the current strengthening of divisions within the Federal Reserve.
Employment is in a stage of moderate decline.
First, let's take a look at the data released yesterday, and then I will provide a broader perspective; there's no need to limit our view to the monthly non-farm data.
This is a factor that has a relatively small influence on interest rate cut expectations.
Finally, I will provide a link to the interest rate cut expectation indicators used by professional institutions.
Mom no longer needs to worry about me being misled by market voices.
为什么现在美联储内部的分歧加强了？
Yesterday's non-farm data aligns well with my previous analysis regarding the current strengthening of divisions within the Federal Reserve.
Employment is in a stage of moderate decline.
First, let's take a look at the data released yesterday, and then I will provide a broader perspective; there's no need to limit our view to the monthly non-farm data.
This is a factor that has a relatively small influence on interest rate cut expectations.
Finally, I will provide a link to the interest rate cut expectation indicators used by professional institutions.
Mom no longer needs to worry about me being misled by market voices.
为什么现在美联储内部的分歧加强了？
See original
No need to overly worry about Japan's interest rate hike; instead, it will bring opportunities
I watched the analysis of Japan's interest rate hike by the co-founder of Glassnode.
I agree with his viewpoint; I won't repeat what has been said, but I will share some of my interpretive angles.
But my perspective is 👇
$BTC #日本加息
🤖 The impact of Japan's interest rate hike on risky assets, especially the cryptocurrency market, is quite limited
The main reasons are as follows:
1. This is not Japan's first interest rate hike; there were already hikes in March and July of last year, 2024.
2. Although this interest rate hike is basically confirmed, it is only raised to 0.75%, which is still very low.
Currently, the U.S. rate is 3.88%. Even with a rate hike, Japan's interest rates remain very low, and Japan will continue to control the extent of rate hikes and their impact.
I agree with his viewpoint; I won't repeat what has been said, but I will share some of my interpretive angles.
But my perspective is 👇
$BTC #日本加息
🤖 The impact of Japan's interest rate hike on risky assets, especially the cryptocurrency market, is quite limited
The main reasons are as follows:
1. This is not Japan's first interest rate hike; there were already hikes in March and July of last year, 2024.
2. Although this interest rate hike is basically confirmed, it is only raised to 0.75%, which is still very low.
Currently, the U.S. rate is 3.88%. Even with a rate hike, Japan's interest rates remain very low, and Japan will continue to control the extent of rate hikes and their impact.
See original
Why has the internal divide at the Federal Reserve intensified now?
$BTC #美联储降息 #美联储FOMC会议 #加密市场观察
Why has the internal divide at the Federal Reserve intensified now?
This is the real reason why all risk assets have no direction in the next few times.
The path for transmission is:
The reality of data is contradictory—divergence of opinions among Federal Reserve members has intensified—interest rate cuts are difficult to predict—global risk assets have lost direction—capital begins to maintain positions and wait, and the market has lost vitality and is stuck in turmoil.
Let me explain to everyone what the current reality contradiction is👇
The core is just one sentence:
Inflation has 'stuck' at half, but employment continues to weaken.
Why has the internal divide at the Federal Reserve intensified now?
This is the real reason why all risk assets have no direction in the next few times.
The path for transmission is:
The reality of data is contradictory—divergence of opinions among Federal Reserve members has intensified—interest rate cuts are difficult to predict—global risk assets have lost direction—capital begins to maintain positions and wait, and the market has lost vitality and is stuck in turmoil.
Let me explain to everyone what the current reality contradiction is👇
The core is just one sentence:
Inflation has 'stuck' at half, but employment continues to weaken.
See original
This interest rate cut meeting appears beneficial on the surface, but in reality, it is a long-term negative
#美联储降息 $BTC #美联储FOMC会议
Yesterday's interest rate cut meeting was not just as simple as lowering the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points
There are many underlying games involved
In summary, it is👇
Trump is dissatisfied with the intensity of the rate cuts. Although Powell announced the rate cut yesterday, the internal divisions within the team are becoming more pronounced
The most important thing is that it reveals a market signal👇
Internal divisions have intensified, leading to increased uncertainty in the future easing path
The short-term market sentiment is stable, but medium-term risks are rising❗️
1⃣ Core of the meeting
This is the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut of 25bp, with a total reduction of 75bp,
Yesterday's interest rate cut meeting was not just as simple as lowering the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points
There are many underlying games involved
In summary, it is👇
Trump is dissatisfied with the intensity of the rate cuts. Although Powell announced the rate cut yesterday, the internal divisions within the team are becoming more pronounced
The most important thing is that it reveals a market signal👇
Internal divisions have intensified, leading to increased uncertainty in the future easing path
The short-term market sentiment is stable, but medium-term risks are rising❗️
1⃣ Core of the meeting
This is the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut of 25bp, with a total reduction of 75bp,
See original
Today's BTC quantitative score is 32.5, direction and conclusion see below
The quantitative model has been initially established
Based on my daily analysis of indicators over the past half month, combined with different indicators from long-term, medium-term, and short-term perspectives
The analysis links for each indicator are at the end of the text
1. Today, weight deployment has been carried out according to each dimension
1. Today's score is 32.5
2. The direction is short
3. Positioning advice is that the total score is too low, suggesting to stay in cash or only hedge with a small amount
Let’s discuss some points to pay attention to behind the model building
2. Personal Style Adaptation
In fact, I previously had a product that I got for free from a friend at a contract quant institution
They engage in intraday high-frequency trading, mainly looking at 3-minute charts, focusing on mainstream coins
Based on my daily analysis of indicators over the past half month, combined with different indicators from long-term, medium-term, and short-term perspectives
The analysis links for each indicator are at the end of the text
1. Today, weight deployment has been carried out according to each dimension
1. Today's score is 32.5
2. The direction is short
3. Positioning advice is that the total score is too low, suggesting to stay in cash or only hedge with a small amount
Let’s discuss some points to pay attention to behind the model building
2. Personal Style Adaptation
In fact, I previously had a product that I got for free from a friend at a contract quant institution
They engage in intraday high-frequency trading, mainly looking at 3-minute charts, focusing on mainstream coins
See original
From short-term data, the situation is the opposite of long-term data
Fill in the last map of the forecasting model - short-term data
This data is more noteworthy than interest rate cut data after 5 days
Last piece of medium-term indicators:
From the medium-term data, crypto is still bullish in the later market, optimistic!
Let's first discuss the conclusion after analyzing the short-term indicators👇
Funding rate decline + ETF no increment + order pressure → BTC lacks breakthrough ability, oscillating bearish, with 89,400 as the strongest support below
BTC is in a structure of 'pressure above, support below, but short-term biased down'
🤑 Funding rate
Funding rates reflect the direction of contracts, and when viewed together, can also indicate changes in directional strength
This data is more noteworthy than interest rate cut data after 5 days
Last piece of medium-term indicators:
From the medium-term data, crypto is still bullish in the later market, optimistic!
Let's first discuss the conclusion after analyzing the short-term indicators👇
Funding rate decline + ETF no increment + order pressure → BTC lacks breakthrough ability, oscillating bearish, with 89,400 as the strongest support below
BTC is in a structure of 'pressure above, support below, but short-term biased down'
🤑 Funding rate
Funding rates reflect the direction of contracts, and when viewed together, can also indicate changes in directional strength
See original
This data is more worth paying attention to than the rate cut data 5 days later.
Every indicator is telling me
Cherish the current BTC at 8
Cherish the current ETH at 3000
Cherish the current BNB at 900
In agreement with Professor Xiao's viewpoint, crypto will be pulled very high next year.
https://x.com/Web3___Ace/status/1996509713299890635
I love pullbacks; I'm only afraid that the pullback won't be deep enough, and I'm afraid I won't have enough bullets (crying).
1. Rate cut path
Let's start with the first indicator, as the FOMC meeting is about to take place, and the rate cut meeting is about to begin.
But what I am studying here is the rate cut path, which are two completely different things.
The interest rates announced at the rate cut meeting are the rates that are about to be implemented, which are short-term indicators and have a relatively short-lived impact on crypto.
Cherish the current BTC at 8
Cherish the current ETH at 3000
Cherish the current BNB at 900
In agreement with Professor Xiao's viewpoint, crypto will be pulled very high next year.
https://x.com/Web3___Ace/status/1996509713299890635
I love pullbacks; I'm only afraid that the pullback won't be deep enough, and I'm afraid I won't have enough bullets (crying).
1. Rate cut path
Let's start with the first indicator, as the FOMC meeting is about to take place, and the rate cut meeting is about to begin.
But what I am studying here is the rate cut path, which are two completely different things.
The interest rates announced at the rate cut meeting are the rates that are about to be implemented, which are short-term indicators and have a relatively short-lived impact on crypto.
See original
From the mid-term data, cryptocurrency is still bullish on the future market, optimistic!
Filled in the last mid-term indicator - VIX
Combining stablecoin market capitalization, ETF AUM, and the VIX index
At the beginning, I still give my own opinion first
Currently, cryptocurrency cannot really be called a bear market; it can only be considered a correction in a mid-term bull market
It belongs to the mid-stage washout + turnover + deleveraging phase
The previous posts have already analyzed the stablecoin market capitalization and AUM; today we focus on VIX
1. VIX
VIX, also known as the fear index, mainly comes from S&P 500 index options, and is the market's expectation of the volatility of U.S. stocks over the next 30 days
Note that this is a prediction, a viewpoint on the future
Combining stablecoin market capitalization, ETF AUM, and the VIX index
At the beginning, I still give my own opinion first
Currently, cryptocurrency cannot really be called a bear market; it can only be considered a correction in a mid-term bull market
It belongs to the mid-stage washout + turnover + deleveraging phase
The previous posts have already analyzed the stablecoin market capitalization and AUM; today we focus on VIX
1. VIX
VIX, also known as the fear index, mainly comes from S&P 500 index options, and is the market's expectation of the volatility of U.S. stocks over the next 30 days
Note that this is a prediction, a viewpoint on the future
See original
Looking at the crypto market from DXY, the prediction accuracy is still quite high
It seems like I have dug a pit for myself recently
Since the last time I wrote an analysis post on the impact of interest rate cuts expectations
It mentioned that we need to consider stablecoin market cap, ETF funding situation, USD index and other indicators together
Then I kept a pace of researching one indicator each day, analyzing them one by one
But now I find this project too huge
The relationship between individual indicators and crypto is theoretically clear
But in reality, it's another story
从ETF视角来看，继续回调可能性较大
从稳定比市值看，市场还没熊，8万远不是熊市底
Since the last time I wrote an analysis post on the impact of interest rate cuts expectations
It mentioned that we need to consider stablecoin market cap, ETF funding situation, USD index and other indicators together
Then I kept a pace of researching one indicator each day, analyzing them one by one
But now I find this project too huge
The relationship between individual indicators and crypto is theoretically clear
But in reality, it's another story
从ETF视角来看，继续回调可能性较大
从稳定比市值看，市场还没熊，8万远不是熊市底
See original
From the perspective of ETFs, the possibility of continued correction is relatively high
Following the previous text: 《从稳定币市值看，市场还没熊，8万远不是熊市底
$BTC
Yesterday I looked at the market capitalization of stablecoins, and today I looked at the situation of spot BTC ETFs
It can be said that the current market weakness is basically caused by the outflow of ETF funds
But even so, after considering the market capitalization of stablecoins and the situation with ETFs
My judgment on the current market remains
It is still not considered a bear market; it is in a range of medium-term correction + repricing
It feels more like a deep correction in a bull market rather than the starting point of a new bear market
1. ETF managed asset scale
$BTC
Yesterday I looked at the market capitalization of stablecoins, and today I looked at the situation of spot BTC ETFs
It can be said that the current market weakness is basically caused by the outflow of ETF funds
But even so, after considering the market capitalization of stablecoins and the situation with ETFs
My judgment on the current market remains
It is still not considered a bear market; it is in a range of medium-term correction + repricing
It feels more like a deep correction in a bull market rather than the starting point of a new bear market
1. ETF managed asset scale
See original
From the perspective of stablecoin market capitalization, the market is not bearish yet; 80,000 is far from the bear market bottom
$BTC
I checked the situation of stablecoin market capitalization and found that although BTC dropped from 12 to a low of 8, the overall market capitalization of stablecoins did not show significant signs of outflow
On the contrary, it has remained steadily rising, currently maintaining at 267.49B
This forces me to draw a preliminary conclusion
The current market is not really bearish; it is more of a phase adjustment of BTC and a wait-and-see attitude of funds
In other words, the real bear market has not yet arrived; 80,000 may not be the bottom👇
On the contrary, it has remained steadily rising, currently maintaining at 267.49B
This forces me to draw a preliminary conclusion
I checked the situation of stablecoin market capitalization and found that although BTC dropped from 12 to a low of 8, the overall market capitalization of stablecoins did not show significant signs of outflow
On the contrary, it has remained steadily rising, currently maintaining at 267.49B
This forces me to draw a preliminary conclusion
The current market is not really bearish; it is more of a phase adjustment of BTC and a wait-and-see attitude of funds
In other words, the real bear market has not yet arrived; 80,000 may not be the bottom👇
On the contrary, it has remained steadily rising, currently maintaining at 267.49B
This forces me to draw a preliminary conclusion
See original
Warren Buffett's cardboard punching theory is like this:
Assuming you can only make 20 investment decisions in your life, each time you make one, you punch a hole in the corresponding card, and once the holes are punched, you can no longer invest.
If you only have 20 investment opportunities in your life, you would be very strong; you would choose the best companies and wait for the most suitable prices.
This punching card theory means:
1. Make fewer decisions
2. Only do what you are most knowledgeable about
3. Treat investments as a growth strategy rather than closing operations.
Munger's addition to this is: do fewer correct things, rather than doing too many things.
You don't need a lifetime; if I could manage to invest only 20 times a year,
I wouldn't be buying the dip above 100,000 now.
I would have money to buy the dip below 100,000 now.
I could place larger bets with smaller risks now.
I wouldn't be here rambling and typing now.
I wouldn't need to think of ways to fund my investments everywhere now.
I wouldn't be FOMOing now.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
Assuming you can only make 20 investment decisions in your life, each time you make one, you punch a hole in the corresponding card, and once the holes are punched, you can no longer invest.
If you only have 20 investment opportunities in your life, you would be very strong; you would choose the best companies and wait for the most suitable prices.
This punching card theory means:
1. Make fewer decisions
2. Only do what you are most knowledgeable about
3. Treat investments as a growth strategy rather than closing operations.
Munger's addition to this is: do fewer correct things, rather than doing too many things.
You don't need a lifetime; if I could manage to invest only 20 times a year,
I wouldn't be buying the dip above 100,000 now.
I would have money to buy the dip below 100,000 now.
I could place larger bets with smaller risks now.
I wouldn't be here rambling and typing now.
I wouldn't need to think of ways to fund my investments everywhere now.
I wouldn't be FOMOing now.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
I woke up this morning to a bloodbath in the bull market, with another major market crash.
But I discovered that a wallet I'd almost forgotten about still held ETH with a cost basis of 160.
Even now, it's more than doubled in value.
I observed some interesting phenomena: whales are now showing a stronger preference for buying ETH at the bottom.
Let's look at these phenomena and some data I just compiled 👇
In the past 12 hours, on-chain whales and large investors have been adding to their ETH positions because ETH entered the strike zone earlier in this correction.
(In layman's terms, it fell more sharply than other assets, haha)
BTC is down approximately 6.1% from the previous trading day's closing price.
ETH is down approximately 9.2% from the previous trading day's closing price.
BNB is down approximately 4.3% from the previous closing price.
A compilation of whales buying at the bottom 🧑🏭
1⃣ The "Seven Whales" (whales/institutional investors) have been continuously buying ETH during this market correction. The latest purchase was 7 million USDT worth of ETH, totaling 2211 ETH, at an average price of $3166.
Since November 4th, this alliance has cumulatively purchased 44008 ETH for $152.99 million, with an average cost of $3477.
2. A "whale that previously borrowed to short 66,000 ETH" purchased 19,508 ETH from Binance, worth $61.03 million.
A few hours later, it bought another 16,937 ETH, worth $53.91 million.
The cumulative purchase amount has reached 422,175 ETH, with a total value of $1.34 billion.
3. A new address, 0x9973 (likely related to Bitmine), just received 9176 ETH from the Galaxy Digital OTC wallet, worth $2914.
I used to laugh at E-Guardians, but after doing some statistics, I found they've been quite strong this year.
Sorry, I misjudged you.
ETH entered the strike zone earlier than BTC; it's time to make a move, young man!
I'm going to poke the first hole in the investment board!
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
$ETH
{spot}(ETHUSDT)
$BNB
{spot}(BNBUSDT)
But I discovered that a wallet I'd almost forgotten about still held ETH with a cost basis of 160.
Even now, it's more than doubled in value.
I observed some interesting phenomena: whales are now showing a stronger preference for buying ETH at the bottom.
Let's look at these phenomena and some data I just compiled 👇
In the past 12 hours, on-chain whales and large investors have been adding to their ETH positions because ETH entered the strike zone earlier in this correction.
(In layman's terms, it fell more sharply than other assets, haha)
BTC is down approximately 6.1% from the previous trading day's closing price.
ETH is down approximately 9.2% from the previous trading day's closing price.
BNB is down approximately 4.3% from the previous closing price.
A compilation of whales buying at the bottom 🧑🏭
1⃣ The "Seven Whales" (whales/institutional investors) have been continuously buying ETH during this market correction. The latest purchase was 7 million USDT worth of ETH, totaling 2211 ETH, at an average price of $3166.
Since November 4th, this alliance has cumulatively purchased 44008 ETH for $152.99 million, with an average cost of $3477.
2. A "whale that previously borrowed to short 66,000 ETH" purchased 19,508 ETH from Binance, worth $61.03 million.
A few hours later, it bought another 16,937 ETH, worth $53.91 million.
The cumulative purchase amount has reached 422,175 ETH, with a total value of $1.34 billion.
3. A new address, 0x9973 (likely related to Bitmine), just received 9176 ETH from the Galaxy Digital OTC wallet, worth $2914.
I used to laugh at E-Guardians, but after doing some statistics, I found they've been quite strong this year.
Sorry, I misjudged you.
ETH entered the strike zone earlier than BTC; it's time to make a move, young man!
I'm going to poke the first hole in the investment board!
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
$ETH
{spot}(ETHUSDT)
$BNB
{spot}(BNBUSDT)
See original
Statistics have been compiled on the lowest prices and times for three cryptocurrencies this year👇
BTC 2025/4/8 78465.2
ETH 2025/4/14 1573.59
BNB 2025/3/11 548.6
In other words, theoretically speaking, if you held these three coins at this year's lowest point, the best performer would actually be ETH, which has still doubled despite the current significant drop.
Meanwhile, BTC's yield is currently around 25%, and BNB is over 90%.
However, pay attention to the timing; these lowest points were primarily in April, and it's only been 7 months since then.
The happiest thing is nothing more than the missed bus coming back to pick you up.
So what is the most painful thing in the world?
Nothing more than the bus comes back to pick you up, and you find that you don't have a ticket to get on the bus!!!
Ah, I won’t say who it is, but from now on, there's one more person in pain, and that's me 😭
$ETH
$BTC
$BNB
BTC 2025/4/8 78465.2
ETH 2025/4/14 1573.59
BNB 2025/3/11 548.6
In other words, theoretically speaking, if you held these three coins at this year's lowest point, the best performer would actually be ETH, which has still doubled despite the current significant drop.
Meanwhile, BTC's yield is currently around 25%, and BNB is over 90%.
However, pay attention to the timing; these lowest points were primarily in April, and it's only been 7 months since then.
The happiest thing is nothing more than the missed bus coming back to pick you up.
So what is the most painful thing in the world?
Nothing more than the bus comes back to pick you up, and you find that you don't have a ticket to get on the bus!!!
Ah, I won’t say who it is, but from now on, there's one more person in pain, and that's me 😭
$ETH
$BTC
$BNB
I woke up this morning to a bloodbath in the bull market, with another major market crash.
But I discovered that a wallet I'd almost forgotten about still held ETH with a cost basis of 160.
Even now, it's more than doubled in value.
I observed some interesting phenomena: whales are now showing a stronger preference for buying ETH at the bottom.
Let's look at these phenomena and some data I just compiled 👇
In the past 12 hours, on-chain whales and large investors have been adding to their ETH positions because ETH entered the strike zone earlier in this correction.
(In layman's terms, it fell more sharply than other assets, haha)
BTC is down approximately 6.1% from the previous trading day's closing price.
ETH is down approximately 9.2% from the previous trading day's closing price.
BNB is down approximately 4.3% from the previous closing price.
A compilation of whales buying at the bottom 🧑🏭
1⃣ The "Seven Whales" (whales/institutional investors) have been continuously buying ETH during this market correction. The latest purchase was 7 million USDT worth of ETH, totaling 2211 ETH, at an average price of $3166.
Since November 4th, this alliance has cumulatively purchased 44008 ETH for $152.99 million, with an average cost of $3477.
2. A "whale that previously borrowed to short 66,000 ETH" purchased 19,508 ETH from Binance, worth $61.03 million.
A few hours later, it bought another 16,937 ETH, worth $53.91 million.
The cumulative purchase amount has reached 422,175 ETH, with a total value of $1.34 billion.
3. A new address, 0x9973 (likely related to Bitmine), just received 9176 ETH from the Galaxy Digital OTC wallet, worth $2914.
I used to laugh at E-Guardians, but after doing some statistics, I found they've been quite strong this year.
Sorry, I misjudged you.
ETH entered the strike zone earlier than BTC; it's time to make a move, young man!
I'm going to poke the first hole in the investment board!
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
$ETH
{spot}(ETHUSDT)
$BNB
{spot}(BNBUSDT)
But I discovered that a wallet I'd almost forgotten about still held ETH with a cost basis of 160.
Even now, it's more than doubled in value.
I observed some interesting phenomena: whales are now showing a stronger preference for buying ETH at the bottom.
Let's look at these phenomena and some data I just compiled 👇
In the past 12 hours, on-chain whales and large investors have been adding to their ETH positions because ETH entered the strike zone earlier in this correction.
(In layman's terms, it fell more sharply than other assets, haha)
BTC is down approximately 6.1% from the previous trading day's closing price.
ETH is down approximately 9.2% from the previous trading day's closing price.
BNB is down approximately 4.3% from the previous closing price.
A compilation of whales buying at the bottom 🧑🏭
1⃣ The "Seven Whales" (whales/institutional investors) have been continuously buying ETH during this market correction. The latest purchase was 7 million USDT worth of ETH, totaling 2211 ETH, at an average price of $3166.
Since November 4th, this alliance has cumulatively purchased 44008 ETH for $152.99 million, with an average cost of $3477.
2. A "whale that previously borrowed to short 66,000 ETH" purchased 19,508 ETH from Binance, worth $61.03 million.
A few hours later, it bought another 16,937 ETH, worth $53.91 million.
The cumulative purchase amount has reached 422,175 ETH, with a total value of $1.34 billion.
3. A new address, 0x9973 (likely related to Bitmine), just received 9176 ETH from the Galaxy Digital OTC wallet, worth $2914.
I used to laugh at E-Guardians, but after doing some statistics, I found they've been quite strong this year.
Sorry, I misjudged you.
ETH entered the strike zone earlier than BTC; it's time to make a move, young man!
I'm going to poke the first hole in the investment board!
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
$ETH
{spot}(ETHUSDT)
$BNB
{spot}(BNBUSDT)
See original
I woke up this morning to a bloodbath in the bull market, with another major market crash.
But I discovered that a wallet I'd almost forgotten about still held ETH with a cost basis of 160.
Even now, it's more than doubled in value.
I observed some interesting phenomena: whales are now showing a stronger preference for buying ETH at the bottom.
Let's look at these phenomena and some data I just compiled 👇
In the past 12 hours, on-chain whales and large investors have been adding to their ETH positions because ETH entered the strike zone earlier in this correction.
(In layman's terms, it fell more sharply than other assets, haha)
BTC is down approximately 6.1% from the previous trading day's closing price.
ETH is down approximately 9.2% from the previous trading day's closing price.
BNB is down approximately 4.3% from the previous closing price.
A compilation of whales buying at the bottom 🧑🏭
1⃣ The "Seven Whales" (whales/institutional investors) have been continuously buying ETH during this market correction. The latest purchase was 7 million USDT worth of ETH, totaling 2211 ETH, at an average price of $3166.
Since November 4th, this alliance has cumulatively purchased 44008 ETH for $152.99 million, with an average cost of $3477.
2. A "whale that previously borrowed to short 66,000 ETH" purchased 19,508 ETH from Binance, worth $61.03 million.
A few hours later, it bought another 16,937 ETH, worth $53.91 million.
The cumulative purchase amount has reached 422,175 ETH, with a total value of $1.34 billion.
3. A new address, 0x9973 (likely related to Bitmine), just received 9176 ETH from the Galaxy Digital OTC wallet, worth $2914.
I used to laugh at E-Guardians, but after doing some statistics, I found they've been quite strong this year.
Sorry, I misjudged you.
ETH entered the strike zone earlier than BTC; it's time to make a move, young man!
I'm going to poke the first hole in the investment board!
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
But I discovered that a wallet I'd almost forgotten about still held ETH with a cost basis of 160.
Even now, it's more than doubled in value.
I observed some interesting phenomena: whales are now showing a stronger preference for buying ETH at the bottom.
Let's look at these phenomena and some data I just compiled 👇
In the past 12 hours, on-chain whales and large investors have been adding to their ETH positions because ETH entered the strike zone earlier in this correction.
(In layman's terms, it fell more sharply than other assets, haha)
BTC is down approximately 6.1% from the previous trading day's closing price.
ETH is down approximately 9.2% from the previous trading day's closing price.
BNB is down approximately 4.3% from the previous closing price.
A compilation of whales buying at the bottom 🧑🏭
1⃣ The "Seven Whales" (whales/institutional investors) have been continuously buying ETH during this market correction. The latest purchase was 7 million USDT worth of ETH, totaling 2211 ETH, at an average price of $3166.
Since November 4th, this alliance has cumulatively purchased 44008 ETH for $152.99 million, with an average cost of $3477.
2. A "whale that previously borrowed to short 66,000 ETH" purchased 19,508 ETH from Binance, worth $61.03 million.
A few hours later, it bought another 16,937 ETH, worth $53.91 million.
The cumulative purchase amount has reached 422,175 ETH, with a total value of $1.34 billion.
3. A new address, 0x9973 (likely related to Bitmine), just received 9176 ETH from the Galaxy Digital OTC wallet, worth $2914.
I used to laugh at E-Guardians, but after doing some statistics, I found they've been quite strong this year.
Sorry, I misjudged you.
ETH entered the strike zone earlier than BTC; it's time to make a move, young man!
I'm going to poke the first hole in the investment board!
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
See original
The day before yesterday, YZI Labs announced its investment in Renewal Bio. Since rebranding from Binance Labs 25 years ago, YZI Labs has now expanded from a single Web3 domain to three pillars: Web3 + AI + Biotechnology.
CZ still misses longevity and expressed a wish to borrow another five hundred years from the heavens.
Speaking of Bio, this biotechnology company is quite impressive.
In January of this year, Binance Labs officially changed its name to YZI Labs, clearly defining its investment scope as Web3 + AI + Biotechnology.
In March, Jane He was appointed as the general partner, specifically responsible for biotechnology investments.
The investment in Renewal Bio yesterday was mainly used for laboratory expansion and preparation for clinical trials.
As YZI's first layout in the biological field, Renewal is also quite remarkable.
To briefly explain their business, they take your own cells to create a completely new version of you.
You can imagine a doctor taking a small sample of cells from you, then processing these cells into stem cells and allowing them to develop like an embryo. Eventually, this new cell will grow into organs like a heart and liver.
If any of your organs have issues, you can use this new organ for transplantation, and there will be no rejection reaction at all.
Of course, this technology has not yet been realized; it is considered their long-term goal—organ regeneration.
Currently, their focus is on hematopoietic stem cells to treat leukemia and immune system diseases, which is similar to what I mentioned earlier—cultivating healthy stem cells from the patient's cells, but lacking the subsequent step of developing into complete organs.
In 2022, they conducted experiments with mice and successfully synthesized embryos, developing brains, blood, etc.
In 2023, they created a "synthetic embryo model" using human cells, equivalent to the developmental stage of 4-6 weeks of pregnancy.
The key technology now is the artificial womb, meaning that children no longer need maternal cultivation, which feels incredibly impressive.
CZ has previously expressed concern for health and longevity.
I can only say it's impressive. I hope the big shots invest more and see if I can benefit from some development welfare in my lifetime.
$BNB
CZ still misses longevity and expressed a wish to borrow another five hundred years from the heavens.
Speaking of Bio, this biotechnology company is quite impressive.
In January of this year, Binance Labs officially changed its name to YZI Labs, clearly defining its investment scope as Web3 + AI + Biotechnology.
In March, Jane He was appointed as the general partner, specifically responsible for biotechnology investments.
The investment in Renewal Bio yesterday was mainly used for laboratory expansion and preparation for clinical trials.
As YZI's first layout in the biological field, Renewal is also quite remarkable.
To briefly explain their business, they take your own cells to create a completely new version of you.
You can imagine a doctor taking a small sample of cells from you, then processing these cells into stem cells and allowing them to develop like an embryo. Eventually, this new cell will grow into organs like a heart and liver.
If any of your organs have issues, you can use this new organ for transplantation, and there will be no rejection reaction at all.
Of course, this technology has not yet been realized; it is considered their long-term goal—organ regeneration.
Currently, their focus is on hematopoietic stem cells to treat leukemia and immune system diseases, which is similar to what I mentioned earlier—cultivating healthy stem cells from the patient's cells, but lacking the subsequent step of developing into complete organs.
In 2022, they conducted experiments with mice and successfully synthesized embryos, developing brains, blood, etc.
In 2023, they created a "synthetic embryo model" using human cells, equivalent to the developmental stage of 4-6 weeks of pregnancy.
The key technology now is the artificial womb, meaning that children no longer need maternal cultivation, which feels incredibly impressive.
CZ has previously expressed concern for health and longevity.
I can only say it's impressive. I hope the big shots invest more and see if I can benefit from some development welfare in my lifetime.
$BNB
See original
Do you still remember the death of DAT that I wrote about before?
Now the opportunity has come, the market value of Strategy has once dropped below the value of the BTC it holds, do you remember what this belongs to in value investing?
The opportunity in undervalued assets, let's talk about it together 👇
First, let's look at some of the latest policy news.
Japan is considering adopting some restrictive policies to curb the growth of financial companies, including tightening regulations on shell listings and requiring companies to undergo new audits.
The effects are quite significant; three Japanese listed companies have stopped buying crypto, which is one of the main reasons the crypto circle has been quite sluggish recently!
This is Japan's policy; I've previously mentioned similar policy restrictions in other places, you can refer to my quoted posts.
Now, let's look at the leading DAT company, Strategy. In the past six months, its market value has directly dropped by 40%, now it stands at 64.5 billion.
However, on 11.11, despite the significant market drop, Strategy still chose to continue buying 487 bitcoins, amounting to approximately 49.9 million USD, with an average purchase price of about 102,557 USD per coin.
The latest holdings are 641,692 coins, calculated at today's BTC market price of 11.13, which is 66.2 billion.
Have you noticed? The market price difference has come; now Strategy's stock has deviated from the value of the BTC it holds, which you can pay attention to.
On the other hand, Strategy's bottom-fishing behavior for BTC also belongs to brand name trading. The long-term outlook for BTC still needs to be optimistic $BTC
Now the opportunity has come, the market value of Strategy has once dropped below the value of the BTC it holds, do you remember what this belongs to in value investing?
The opportunity in undervalued assets, let's talk about it together 👇
First, let's look at some of the latest policy news.
Japan is considering adopting some restrictive policies to curb the growth of financial companies, including tightening regulations on shell listings and requiring companies to undergo new audits.
The effects are quite significant; three Japanese listed companies have stopped buying crypto, which is one of the main reasons the crypto circle has been quite sluggish recently!
This is Japan's policy; I've previously mentioned similar policy restrictions in other places, you can refer to my quoted posts.
Now, let's look at the leading DAT company, Strategy. In the past six months, its market value has directly dropped by 40%, now it stands at 64.5 billion.
However, on 11.11, despite the significant market drop, Strategy still chose to continue buying 487 bitcoins, amounting to approximately 49.9 million USD, with an average purchase price of about 102,557 USD per coin.
The latest holdings are 641,692 coins, calculated at today's BTC market price of 11.13, which is 66.2 billion.
Have you noticed? The market price difference has come; now Strategy's stock has deviated from the value of the BTC it holds, which you can pay attention to.
On the other hand, Strategy's bottom-fishing behavior for BTC also belongs to brand name trading. The long-term outlook for BTC still needs to be optimistic $BTC
See original
Let's take a look at two important policy changes that are directly related to the next bull market next year
Hong Kong's Ensemble project enters a new phase and Singapore's tokenized bills
1⃣ Everyone should know about Hong Kong's previous sandbox plan, which caused quite a stir when it was introduced, but later tightened up, and now there is basically no discussion domestically
The main reason is that it cannot be issued, and it will be deemed illegal
Today, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the launch of Ensemble, entering the trial phase
In simple terms, this project aims to consolidate all token-related funds (including deposits, funds, bills) into a regulated settlement system for trading tests
The initial application scenario is tokenized deposit slips for cross-border payments, with the goal of making tokenized deposits a daily usable tool within the banking system
This is Hong Kong's closest core project to the implementation of CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency), as well as the main direction of tokenized financial infrastructure in Hong Kong for the coming years
2⃣ Singapore has indicated that it will initiate a pilot for the issuance of tokenized MAS bills next year
MAS will conduct tokenization experiments on real central bank short-term bills, and then test indicators such as scalability and settlement efficiency
The aim is also to bring tokenization to the financial infrastructure level, accelerating the traditional sector's full involvement in on-chain finance
3⃣ So friends, cherish BTC around 100K, cherish ETH below 4000, cherish BNB below 1000
Although the current stage is weak, the future is still bright. It is foreseeable that a large amount of traditional hot money will flood into the crypto space starting from the pilot
Mom, I see hope again $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
Hong Kong's Ensemble project enters a new phase and Singapore's tokenized bills
1⃣ Everyone should know about Hong Kong's previous sandbox plan, which caused quite a stir when it was introduced, but later tightened up, and now there is basically no discussion domestically
The main reason is that it cannot be issued, and it will be deemed illegal
Today, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the launch of Ensemble, entering the trial phase
In simple terms, this project aims to consolidate all token-related funds (including deposits, funds, bills) into a regulated settlement system for trading tests
The initial application scenario is tokenized deposit slips for cross-border payments, with the goal of making tokenized deposits a daily usable tool within the banking system
This is Hong Kong's closest core project to the implementation of CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency), as well as the main direction of tokenized financial infrastructure in Hong Kong for the coming years
2⃣ Singapore has indicated that it will initiate a pilot for the issuance of tokenized MAS bills next year
MAS will conduct tokenization experiments on real central bank short-term bills, and then test indicators such as scalability and settlement efficiency
The aim is also to bring tokenization to the financial infrastructure level, accelerating the traditional sector's full involvement in on-chain finance
3⃣ So friends, cherish BTC around 100K, cherish ETH below 4000, cherish BNB below 1000
Although the current stage is weak, the future is still bright. It is foreseeable that a large amount of traditional hot money will flood into the crypto space starting from the pilot
Mom, I see hope again $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
See original
Today, we tested this many times. Actually, there are no significant issues with this product. It's just important to keep an eye on the market right after placing an order.
Additionally, it's necessary to control oneself and not rush to enter the market before the product gives a signal.
The biggest test loss today was due to chasing after the signal had already passed, and then later a signal to reduce positions was given, so I had to hold on for a while.
If I had completely followed the product's signals, the subsequent pullbacks would not have breached my entry line; at most, the rate of return would have just decreased a bit.
I took the next few trades seriously, and I made profits on all three.
I still need some time to get used to it, including determining which assets are more suitable for this product, and I will need to filter those out.
I plan to start recording the signals given at the time of placing orders from the next trade, making a formal experimental record.
Moreover, for someone like me who is still working, I need to find a strategy that reduces monitoring time while still being profitable, and I need to test that.
Additionally, it's necessary to control oneself and not rush to enter the market before the product gives a signal.
The biggest test loss today was due to chasing after the signal had already passed, and then later a signal to reduce positions was given, so I had to hold on for a while.
If I had completely followed the product's signals, the subsequent pullbacks would not have breached my entry line; at most, the rate of return would have just decreased a bit.
I took the next few trades seriously, and I made profits on all three.
I still need some time to get used to it, including determining which assets are more suitable for this product, and I will need to filter those out.
I plan to start recording the signals given at the time of placing orders from the next trade, making a formal experimental record.
Moreover, for someone like me who is still working, I need to find a strategy that reduces monitoring time while still being profitable, and I need to test that.
Testing the quantitative product on the third day
Yesterday, I researched this plugin and worked until four in the morning today.
No exaggeration, this plugin is quite useful for retail investors (not sure about institutions).
On the third day of testing with a $10 investment, I have initially grasped how to use this quantitative plugin.
Today, I woke up and started trading at $XPL , originally achieving a 206% return.
After closing that, I transferred to trade $GIGGLE , and just after buying, CZ's comment caused a drop.
But the main problem lies with me; I forgot to set a stop-loss when placing the order, which resulted in losing all the $50 built up from the previous $10.
Fortunately, every time I take profits, I set aside 1/3, and continue testing with the remaining $2!
Now with $2, I opened $币安人生 , and according to the strategy I’ve explored so far, it’s still developing steadily in the expected direction.
Today's strategy has become stable; if everything goes well this week, I can start investing more funds.
I need to acquire more good resources later, and if it's good, I'll support it with some cash, hahaha.
Yesterday, I researched this plugin and worked until four in the morning today.
No exaggeration, this plugin is quite useful for retail investors (not sure about institutions).
On the third day of testing with a $10 investment, I have initially grasped how to use this quantitative plugin.
Today, I woke up and started trading at $XPL , originally achieving a 206% return.
After closing that, I transferred to trade $GIGGLE , and just after buying, CZ's comment caused a drop.
But the main problem lies with me; I forgot to set a stop-loss when placing the order, which resulted in losing all the $50 built up from the previous $10.
Fortunately, every time I take profits, I set aside 1/3, and continue testing with the remaining $2!
Now with $2, I opened $币安人生 , and according to the strategy I’ve explored so far, it’s still developing steadily in the expected direction.
Today's strategy has become stable; if everything goes well this week, I can start investing more funds.
I need to acquire more good resources later, and if it's good, I'll support it with some cash, hahaha.
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