币姥爷

1、《牛市杀器：资金费率套利介绍》

2、《12月10日与6日暴跌复盘：不容忽视的资金费率及潜在机会》

3、《市场出现一致性看空》

4、《408暴跌之后，币圈是否已严重错杀？》

5、《币姥爷的加密货币交易思维方式》

6、《WLFI套利复盘》

December 17, 2025
Recently, the overall market hasn't shown any significant fluctuations; the altcoin sector has seen a slight decline. This isn't due to a massive outflow of funds from the main market, but rather some altcoin operators are continuing to sell off, and a portion of retail investors can't hold on any longer and choose to sell. From the perspective of the market and market sentiment, the main funds have actually been buying recently. According to financial report information disclosed by BitMine, they increased their holdings by approximately 100,000 ETH last week, with a total ETH holding appreciation of 3,967,000. It is worth mentioning that BitMine holds 192 BTC in addition to nearly 1 billion USD in cash, which indicates a high probability of adopting a buy-buy-buy model.

December 15, 2025
The market continues to move sideways, and as we often say, it is basically in a state of neglect, including other indicators, which have already shown that it is a good time to buy. The current market is quite special in that many indicators have already become ineffective, including the most commonly used Greed and Fear Index; therefore, the credibility of the indicators is somewhat discounted. Of course, if we are to operate based on indicators, we are still not in a brainless phase.
This point indeed aligns with the situation of the market. Are you saying we are currently in a bear market? That is indeed the case; the prices of many coins have dropped by more than half compared to their highs. Are you suggesting we have reached the bottom of the bear market? It can be stated almost certainly that we have not, as the current liquidity is extremely fragile, and any slight disturbance could trigger further declines. More importantly, if we really follow a four-year cycle, the true bear market has not even started yet!

December 14, 2025
Today I tried to build a bull-bear judgment model for my own use with AI, inputting multiple indicators such as the market's fear index, capital cost, funding rate, etc., and then calculating a weighted score based on the range of real-time data, finally providing a judgment on the current market's bull-bear status to assist my investment decisions.

The picture shows the version I am currently building, with conclusions drawn from today's data: bold buy. However, this version has not yet undergone optimization and historical data backtesting, so for now, I can only observe, but I am already feeling very shocked. I have always wanted to build a bull-bear judgment system, and I have previously written many judgment criteria, but now conclusions can be automatically derived through the model, which can be easily achieved with AI.

December 13, 2025
I recommend an AI approach to everyone: share your trading summaries with AI or use your 16 personality type to get some investment advice from AI. I'm playing with this today. For example, AI considers my core strength to be seeing long-term trends through the noise of candlestick charts. Ordinary people chase highs and sell lows, while you excel at piecing together fragmented information to predict the narrative direction for the next 3-5 years. Once I confirm the long-term value of a project (like ETH), you can hold onto it better than anyone else. I am the type who dares to build positions at the bottom of a bear market and holds on until the bull market. I won't blindly follow others; I will read white papers, study tokenomics, and analyze on-chain data. This type of position based on deep understanding is the source of my confidence.

December 11, 2025
The interest rate cut has been implemented, with a decrease of 25 basis points. However, it did not bring significant relief to the market; rather, there was a surge before the rate cut took effect. From the trend following the rate cut, confidence remains insufficient, and there is a tendency for capital to flee. One can only say that the next one to two months look concerning for the market. However, yesterday's rise has given us some confidence, indicating that the downward space is relatively limited.
It must be emphasized again that the so-called limited downward space is only applicable to mainstream assets. If the market continues to enter a bear market, the prices of altcoins are uncertain. At this stage, the main issue is still insufficient liquidity, and with no profit-making effect, the entire market also lacks vibrant products, and there are even no concepts to speak of, which is very detrimental to prices.

December 10, 2025
Good news, while Bitcoin is still hovering around 90,000, Ethereum has made a rebound, with the price reaching 3,300 USD. This means that Ethereum has the chance to hover around the 3000s in the coming period. Actually, I'm quite confident about Ethereum; I've been doing grid trading, and now that it has broken out of the range, I've converted all my profits into spot holdings.
Of course, we still need to be cautious about the upcoming market. A market dominated by fluctuations is unlikely to go straight up, but at least the panic feeling from earlier seems to have subsided. The only issue is that the current market liquidity is still insufficient, which poses a potential risk to the market, and after several declines, the bear market pattern is still quite certain.

December 9, 2025
Today, the whole internet is buzzing about a travel influencer, Lan Zhanfei, who revealed that he was kidnapped in South Africa. It is said that the kidnappers started planning six months ago, bribing South African airlines, hotels, and police, meticulously orchestrating this kidnapping case. Fortunately, Lan Zhanfei is safe, and although he lost a lot of money, for him, as long as he is alive, money is not an issue.
This incident has deepened my sense of fear about certain corners of the world. Relatively speaking, we have done quite well in terms of public safety management. If there is any insight to be gained, it is to avoid flaunting wealth casually. There are still many invisible big shots in the cryptocurrency circle; in reality, if someone is a KOL, flaunting wealth is usually purposeful and likely not genuine.

December 8, 2025
The chairman of the US SEC has spoken out, predicting that within two years, the entire financial market in the United States will migrate to the blockchain. Although this statement is somewhat exaggerated, as someone within the industry, I find it hard to believe that this will fully happen in two years, considering that the size of the entire US financial market is several times larger than the crypto market. However, moving the trading of financial assets onto the blockchain is indeed a transformation that is currently taking place, which is the RWA trading that is expanding market size.
Unlike the open attitude of the Americans, we are tightening the access to virtual currencies, including RWA and stablecoins. There’s not much to say about this; after all, the institutional frameworks are different, and it's all for the sake of respective development and stability. However, for individuals, the next few years will usher in a new wave of wealth transfer. Every time I mention this, I feel fortunate to have learned about this industry early on, and I even feel a bit of sympathy for those who are constrained by their limited perspectives.

December 7, 2025
Continuing to share some new knowledge in AI from the past few days, currently the biggest application of AI is still programming, which is VibeCoding. Translated, it can be natural language programming, meaning you don't need any programming background; you just need to describe your needs in natural language, and AI can help you write the program. Of course, some people might feel that besides not being able to program, they also cannot configure, and even haven't downloaded programming software; that's okay, you just need to throw any unclear parts to AI, and it will provide you with answers. I have already completed several VibeCoding programs; there may be errors in the middle, and the running results may not initially match your expectations, but generally, after modifying it 5-10 times, a program can run smoothly.

December 5, 2025
Recently, I have increasingly realized the power of AI. In fact, from the stock performance of companies like Nvidia and Google, as well as OpenAI's valuation, this wave of AI is a genuine technological revolution. To be honest, I am already late to the game; those who reacted quickly have already made substantial bets on AI companies, and there are many derivative products based on AI emerging, such as Doubao and AI video editing tools. The strength of Gemini 3.0 lies in the fact that any individual can use AI to accomplish the workload of a group of people. In other words, one person can run a company.

December 4, 2025
In the blink of an eye, Ethereum has broken through 3200 again. The pace of this rally is still quite good. Bitcoin continues to hold at 93000 USD, and BNB has also risen above 900 USD. The main reason for this rally is still the strong performance of the US stock market. Looking at the Nasdaq, there have been several consecutive bullish trends at the daily level. Although there hasn't been a new high yet, the decline from last month has already been reversed. In other words, after the adjustment, the US stock market is likely to continue reaching new highs, following the rhythm of interest rate cuts to maintain its long-term bull market. It is worth mentioning that Michael Dell, the founder of Dell Technologies, along with his wife Susan Dell, has donated $6.25 billion to invest in funds for 25 million children under the age of 10 in the United States.

December 3, 2025
I saw the news that the market price of Moutai has dropped below the distributor's channel price of 1499. The once unattainable 53-degree Feitian, under the pressure of consumption downgrading and e-commerce, has fallen from grace. Just last year, Moutai's market value became the top in the A-shares, at that time everyone compared Dongfang Moutai to Western Nvidia, but now Nvidia still occupies the top position on NASDAQ, and the development of AI continues to flourish. Perhaps choosing Moutai doesn't necessarily mean losing, but with the continuous development of AI, those betting on AI-related value companies are bound to reap substantial rewards.

December 2, 2025
The market has temporarily stabilized after a short-term decline. Currently, this round of decline is still attributed to negative news. Given this, I believe we don't need to be pessimistic about the future market trends, as the previous decline was caused by a tangible outflow of ETF funds, which is fundamentally different. Of course, the current rebound price has not yet returned to the level before the decline, so the short-term market is still mainly characterized by fluctuations.
One thing worth paying attention to recently is the surge in silver prices. To be honest, many people anticipated the increase in gold prices over the past year, and now there's speculation in silver as well. This shows that as long as there are assets with an audience, price increases are just a matter of time, because capital will eventually flow into these targets to stir things up.

December 1, 2025
The market has fallen again, giving a warning to the December market. In fact, the overall judgment for the upcoming market is somewhat pessimistic; it is unlikely that there will be another surge before the end of January. It has been reiterated that there are risks associated with cryptocurrency-related financial services, especially as many crypto promotions have recently entered common social platforms, leading many people to fall victim to scams.
From this perspective, tightening regulations is necessary. To be honest, most people lack awareness of financial scams, which in turn brings more negative comments about cryptocurrencies. However, cryptocurrency itself is just a tool, and it has been unfairly blamed. Of course, this will deter some people from entering the market, and with Christmas and the Spring Festival approaching, the likelihood of retail investors entering the market, whether here or abroad, is low.

November 30, 2025
Today, let's have an open discussion. If you earned enough assets through the cryptocurrency market, how would you continue to invest? The specific amount varies from person to person; in third- and fourth-tier cities, perhaps just A8 (10 million RMB) is enough, while in first- and second-tier cities, A8.3 or A8.5 (around 30-50 million) might be needed, or a smaller target. I think the mainstream answer to this question might surprise many people. From Tether's recent actions, we can see that they are crazily hoarding gold and investing in gold mines; Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. Treasury bonds have become their most important asset reserves.