BTC's Four-Year Bull Market Cycle, has its 'engine' already stalled?
Introduction Bitcoin's 'Four-Year Cycle' sounds mysterious, but the core idea is: halving occurs every four years, creating a cycle of rises and falls from bear to bull. Four-Step Cycle: Bear Market Bottoming: After a significant drop, large investors begin to quietly buy in. Halving Preheat: Before the halving, the market speculates on scarcity, and prices gradually rise. Crazy Bull Market: After the halving, the effect of reduced supply becomes apparent, combined with new entrants, prices soar. Bubble Burst: After excessive market leverage, a crash occurs, leading into a new bear market. Why is there this cycle? In simple terms: Sudden halving of output + everyone expects the price to rise. Halving reduces the output of new coins; if demand remains the same or increases, prices are likely to rise. Additionally, the habit of a four-year cycle creates a 'self-fulfilling prophecy.'
$ETH This wave of rebound is indeed a bit weak. During the rebound, it was slightly stronger than Bitcoin, but last night it couldn't even break through 3000.
The short position I set earlier didn't get filled, but I estimate it will need to fluctuate here for a while. As long as it doesn't break below the recent low in the short term, there is still a chance to test around 3050 again.
So the previously planned short position will continue to be held, waiting for the right opportunity.
$ETH The bearish flag pattern has basically completed. The first wave of decline is the flagpole, followed by a consolidation that forms the flag surface. Currently, it has chosen to break downward. Yesterday's fluctuations likely misled many people into thinking it was a rectangular consolidation, leading to a false bullish signal before the market quickly turned bearish.
After the flag pattern is established, this segment of decline is usually similar to the first wave of the flagpole, and there has been no sign of a bottoming out yet.
From the 4-hour level, the downtrend will continue. There may be two possible scenarios: one is a direct continuation of the decline, and the other is a rebound followed by another decline. Considering that a direct drop is likely to quickly rebound and close bullish, the second scenario is more conducive to a stable short position.
Considering the non-farm payroll data released tonight, if the results are favorable, it may lead to a small-level price rebound, with the high point expected in the 3030-3050 range. It is recommended to place short orders around 3050-3070, as this position serves as a resistance level for the conversion of the flag's lower track. The target for another decline looks towards the 2760-2730 range
$BTC The short position has been entered, with a cost near 88,000. Looking at the short-term trend, a triangle consolidation was previously formed, but the price has now broken below the triangle's lower edge. This suggests that it is likely to continue moving downward in the short term.
The recent support is initially at 86,000. If the price breaks below this level, the short position can be held.
BTC's recent movement is an accelerated decline after breaking out of an ascending wedge, and it has now fallen below support. Yesterday's slight rebound was weak, just reaching 90,000 before retreating, which can easily mislead people.
The downtrend continues, and bottom-fishing is not recommended. If you really want to go long, you can wait for the 83,000-80,000 range. Short-term bearish strength is weakening, and there may be a small rebound to 87,000-88,000, but the magnitude is limited. After the rebound, shorting remains the main strategy, with a target of 83,000-80,000.
The daily chart shows no signs of a bottom, and it could accelerate downward at any time. If the 83,000-80,000 level is lost, the next target looks towards 75,000. Overall, maintain a bearish outlook.
Low leverage short, the overall direction is short, currently the best strategy for big white execution!
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However, this one is also very wrong. Look at the trend; if possible, after big white takes profits in batches, set a break-even stop-loss and then just hold on and watch.
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New coin, which has been fluctuating for a long time, looks like there is a need for a pullback based on this trend. Let's set up a low-leverage short to seize an opportunity.
10x leverage, light position, enter short near the current price of 0.42603, stop loss and take profit to be determined. Please manage your position reasonably; if you can't withstand it, you can set a stop loss at 15 points.
New coin, which has been fluctuating for a long time, looks like there is a need for a pullback based on this trend. Let's set up a low-leverage short to seize an opportunity.
10x leverage, light position, enter short near the current price of 0.42603, stop loss and take profit to be determined. Please manage your position reasonably; if you can't withstand it, you can set a stop loss at 15 points.
$RAVE The speed of this drop is really smooth, the timing is not bad, it didn't take long before it started to fall, and indeed the direction of being short is correct. As long as the direction is right, the subsequent profits will surely satisfy you!
Those who follow the wealth password of the publicly available contracts by Da Bai can choose to take profits in batches and set a stop-loss to protect the capital, it's really comfortable!
New coin, which has been fluctuating for a long time, looks like there is a need for a pullback based on this trend. Let's set up a low-leverage short to seize an opportunity.
10x leverage, light position, enter short near the current price of 0.42603, stop loss and take profit to be determined. Please manage your position reasonably; if you can't withstand it, you can set a stop loss at 15 points.
New coin, which has been fluctuating for a long time, looks like there is a need for a pullback based on this trend. Let's set up a low-leverage short to seize an opportunity.
10x leverage, light position, enter short near the current price of 0.42603, stop loss and take profit to be determined. Please manage your position reasonably; if you can't withstand it, you can set a stop loss at 15 points.
BTC loses the $86,000 level, is the correction possibly not yet over?
Introduction Over the past weekend, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market did not improve. Bitcoin weakened significantly from Sunday night to Monday during U.S. stock trading after several days of slight fluctuations, with prices dropping below the $90,000 mark, reaching a low near $86,000. ETH fell 3.4%, reported at $2980; BNB fell 2.1%; XRP fell 4%; SOL fell 1.5%, returning to around $126. Among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, only TRX saw a slight increase of less than 1%, while the rest were in a downward trend. This adjustment is not accidental. Since reaching an all-time high in mid-October, Bitcoin's cumulative decline has exceeded 30%, and each rebound has appeared weak and short-lived. Although Bitcoin ETF funds have not seen large-scale outflows, the inflow rate has clearly slowed down, making it difficult to support the market as it did before. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is shifting from a one-sided rise to a more complex phase that also tests patience.
In Daba's view, the current market trend is still largely downward. Daba's overall strategy is to find coins that can be shorted, and the strategy remains to hold onto low-multiplication positions for a long time. Daba mentioned this a long time ago. If there are enthusiasts who strictly follow Daba's overall strategy, I believe your returns will definitely not be poor!!!!
During this period, the focus should be on accumulation, gathering more funds, and when the overall market stops falling, it is wise to buy the dip and layout a more stable spot trading strategy!
$ETH The bearish flag pattern has basically completed. The first wave of decline is the flagpole, followed by a consolidation that forms the flag surface. Currently, it has chosen to break downward. Yesterday's fluctuations likely misled many people into thinking it was a rectangular consolidation, leading to a false bullish signal before the market quickly turned bearish.
After the flag pattern is established, this segment of decline is usually similar to the first wave of the flagpole, and there has been no sign of a bottoming out yet.
From the 4-hour level, the downtrend will continue. There may be two possible scenarios: one is a direct continuation of the decline, and the other is a rebound followed by another decline. Considering that a direct drop is likely to quickly rebound and close bullish, the second scenario is more conducive to a stable short position.
Considering the non-farm payroll data released tonight, if the results are favorable, it may lead to a small-level price rebound, with the high point expected in the 3030-3050 range. It is recommended to place short orders around 3050-3070, as this position serves as a resistance level for the conversion of the flag's lower track. The target for another decline looks towards the 2760-2730 range
Holding a low-leverage short position in hand, really not opening new ones, just holding onto the low leverage feels very comfortable, setting a breakeven loss, holding it really feels great!!!
BTC's recent movement is an accelerated decline after breaking out of an ascending wedge, and it has now fallen below support. Yesterday's slight rebound was weak, just reaching 90,000 before retreating, which can easily mislead people.
The downtrend continues, and bottom-fishing is not recommended. If you really want to go long, you can wait for the 83,000-80,000 range. Short-term bearish strength is weakening, and there may be a small rebound to 87,000-88,000, but the magnitude is limited. After the rebound, shorting remains the main strategy, with a target of 83,000-80,000.
The daily chart shows no signs of a bottom, and it could accelerate downward at any time. If the 83,000-80,000 level is lost, the next target looks towards 75,000. Overall, maintain a bearish outlook.
Yesterday, BTC continued to decline, breaking below the support around 88k in one go and temporarily stopping around 85k. Now we need to observe the strength of the rebound; is there a possibility of forming a short-term bottom here?
From the short-term trend, a rebound starting at 85k is a good sign, but we need to observe whether the rebound can sustain. The first resistance level upwards is around 88k; only by regaining above 88k will there be a possibility of strengthening again and forming a decent bottom.
On the Day the Federal Reserve's Independence Collapses, Is the Next Bull Market for BTC Coming?
Hello everyone, I am Crypto Mubai Referred to as 'Big White' by fans, he is hailed as 'the Buffett of rising markets and the Soros of falling markets.' As a leader in the crypto field, Big White primarily focuses on spot trading, supplemented by contract operations. With precise market judgment and a steady operating style, he has become a versatile trading expert. Big White is also a senior analyst in the blockchain market for spot, contracts, and on-chain assets, with a win rate of over 96%!
Preface The Federal Reserve has made a decisive move: cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and printing 40 billion to buy government bonds. According to the 'textbook' narrative, this is definitely an epic positive signal, and the market should be celebrating with fireworks. But reality has slapped us in the face— the stock market hasn't picked up, and long-term government bonds are being crazily sold off, with yields rising instead of falling.
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Currently, the trend looks like there is a short opportunity, you can try to short a bit for a chance
Light position, low leverage of 10 times, short around the current price of 1.1469, stop loss and take profit to be determined. Please pay attention to reasonable position management; those who cannot withstand it can set a stop loss position of 15 points