盯盘眼

炒币有一个最笨的方法

但是这个方法呢几乎可以吃掉所有的利润，慢慢学习。

首先呢我们炒币就永远不要做三件事情。

第一件事情呢就是永远不要在上涨的时候买入，要在别人恐惧的时候贪婪，在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，能够在下跌的时候买入，并把这个变成一种习惯。

第二呢就是永远不要压单

第三呢就是永远不要满仓，满仓之后啊非常被动，而且这个市场最不缺的就是机会，满仓的机会成本就会非常的高。

另外说说短线炒币的六个口诀

第一个就是在币价高位盘整之后，通常还会有一个新高。而在这个低位盘整之后呢，又通常会再创新低，所以要等待变盘的方向明朗之后，咱们再做操作。

第二个就是横盘不交易，多数人炒币赔钱呢，就是因为做不到这个最简单的一点。

第三个就是在选择k线的时候，再收阴线的时候，咱们去买进日线。收阳的时候呢，咱们在卖出

第四个，下跌趋缓，反弹亦缓，下跌加速反弹。

第五呢就是按照金字塔的买入方法去建仓，这个是价值投资唯一不变的一个争。

第六个就是当一只币种它持续的上涨。

持续的下跌之后，必然会进入到一个横盘的一个状态。

在这个时候咱们就不必在这个高位的时候全场卖出，也没有必要在低位的时候去全仓买进。

因为盘整之后呢必然会面临变盘。

如果说从高位向下去变，那就要及时的清仓了，反正就是要及时的去推进

如果当下的你，在交易方面感到无助、迷茫、 想了解更多币圈的相关知识和一手的前沿资讯，不妨找盘哥聊聊。

ETH目前从周线、月线这种大级别去看，其实结构已经很清楚了，市场在走一个偏标准的头肩底。左肩大概在 2100 一带，后面砸出了头，现在右肩回踩，但始终没跌破左肩低点，这本身就是强势的信号。只要后面把颈线有效突破，头肩底的形态就算是成立了。
所以如果你是 2000 以下拿的 ETH，说实话真的没必要天天焦虑，拿着就行，结构是对你有利的。反而是那种一边不敢持有，一边又天天盼着暴跌的人，最容易在关键位置被洗下车。
如果你接受不了低位没上车，又不怕均价稍微高一点，追求的是确定性，那也不是不行，技术面本来就给你答案——等突破。只是要想清楚，真突破颈线，那价格大概率已经在 5k 上方了，到时候你买的是趋势，不是低价。
市场已经很明显了，还天天幻想三位数 ETH，这种想法本身就有点脱离周期。上一轮熊市，以太最低 880，大饼 1.7 万，后面大饼又多砸了一段到 1.5 万，但以太的 880 就是没破。这一轮才刚创完新高，就开始盼三位数，逻辑本身就不通。所以我会在2000附近就开始定投ETH，或许不会是底部，但是一定是值得下注的点位。
如果ETH 跌到三位数了，那意味着整个市场已经彻底崩掉了，到那个时候，你大概率也不会去买，只会觉得还能再跌。所以与其天天做这种不现实的预期，不如承认一点：趋势一旦走出来，就该勇敢一点。
市场从来不奖励犹豫到完美的人，只奖励在对的方向上，敢下注的人。

兄弟们过两天就是日本加息
外加星期四晚上9点半有一个数据
第一是cpi年率，第二是cpi月率，和一个失业金
所以这个星期注定不平凡，今天的波动并不会太大
都在等明天和后天的行情，继续看南下思路
两天我们拭目以待！

The hourly level performance is very strong, with the K-line breaking through the short-term oscillation range resistance, driving the market's center of gravity to continuously rise. The momentum for an aggressive advance continues to be released, and the short-term upward rhythm is clear.
The intraday trend is strong, and it may rise further!

This week in the market is all about one thing: everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve at 3 AM on the 11th. First of all, a rate cut is basically a done deal, and there's no suspense about that. The key question is whether they dare to signal a softer stance on the rate cut expectations for next year.
If they continue to act hawkish, then be prepared for a collective sell-off. If they dare to follow Trump's lead and soften their tone, then there might be a breather. Because I don't believe a word of the forward guidance these people provide.
Just remember the scene at the end of last year: the market sentiment was already good around Christmas. Trump won the election, and the rate cut was finalized. But then, Powell gave a showy speech that crushed the rate cut expectations to just two times this year.
The market was directly beaten down, and what happened? This year, they actually cut rates four times, which says what? It shows that all the plans from these old wallflowers are just to fool retail investors. When real trouble arises, they are the most cowardly of all.
It's the same now; the dot plot is just a bunch of nonsense to me. If they say they want to maintain inflation, then they are preparing to crush the U.S. economy, most likely leading to a recession. If they want to protect the economy, then they can only cut rates faster and harder; inflation is just a smokescreen.
No matter how tough they talk, their actions reveal the truth. Once the new Federal Reserve chair takes office, it will only move closer to Trump's rhythm. A real rate cut path is bound to come eventually, but this December meeting is destined to be torturous.

In the cryptocurrency world, has the bad news run its course and is a change coming?

After the Bitcoin weekly close, it directly retraced, and now it’s almost at the key level of 85000 USD～ Previously, it was mentioned to see if it could recover to 90800 USD, but the market didn’t see much movement over the weekend due to the US holiday, just hovering above 90800. Who would have thought that the Bank of Japan suddenly 'turned hawkish', hinting at a possible interest rate hike in December? US stock futures and Bitcoin were both affected by liquidity; Bitcoin couldn’t hold the key level and retraced again. 😮

Why does the possibility of Japan raising interest rates have such a big impact? Just look at the data; Japan's 2-year government bond yield has skyrocketed past 1%, and coupled with the central bank's recent actions, the market believes the probability of a rate hike in December is over 60%, and even up to 90% in January next year. It’s important to note that Japan has had three decades of stagnation with long-term low/negative interest rates, making borrowing extremely cheap. Institutions love to borrow yen to exchange for other currencies to invest in global stocks and bonds for arbitrage (this is known as yen carry trade). Once Japan raises interest rates, borrowing costs will increase, and highly leveraged players will have to liquidate their positions, selling off US stocks, treasury bonds, and other assets, significantly withdrawing liquidity from the market. Furthermore, the market is more concerned that Japan will exit its long-term loose monetary policy, which would cool off the yen carry trade that injects liquidity into the global market. This would have a clear short-term impact on liquidity-sensitive markets, and risk assets like Bitcoin will certainly bear the brunt of it～

However, don’t panic too much; a rate hike in Japan is just a short-term shock. The larger influence on global liquidity levels still comes from the Federal Reserve. On December 1st, the Federal Reserve has already stopped tapering, and on December 10th, the probability of a rate cut by FOMC is over 80%, indicating a trend towards easing. But currently, the US is in a standstill, and events like Japan raising interest rates may disturb short-term liquidity. The global financial system is inherently interconnected, and coupled with the uncertainty brought by policies over the past year, Bitcoin has also suffered quite a bit. 😔

In the short term, keep a close eye on the 85000 USD support level, with the core focus on the reaction after the US stock market opens. If it can hold, there’s a high probability of a rebound this week, forming a short-term double bottom to challenge 90800 USD again; if it directly breaks down, there’s little support until 74000 USD, and the price may quickly test lower. ⏬

Open low, horizontal trend. A prolonged horizontal trend must lead to a drop!

It's been a long time since it's been this calm and peaceful. I estimate that something big is about to happen. Friends without positions should wait and observe to avoid losses from large market fluctuations. It's really like the storm is coming and the building is full of wind.

Foreknowledge, ambushing in advance
Take down 38653 oil
In the adult world, there is no easy word; on one side is the pressure of life chasing after you, and on the other side is the restart of dreams. Adults are always on the "difficult road."

【December's Opening Black! Is the rebound over or is it the calm before the storm?】
Just yesterday, it was mentioned that the rebound might just be a 'dead cat bounce', and today a large bearish candlestick plunged below $88,000! Some friends started to ask: Is the bull market completely over?
Let's look at a few key points:
1️⃣ The monthly line failed to reach a new high, followed by an ugly doji and then a large bearish candlestick
2️⃣ The weekly rebound didn't even touch the previous pause point of $93,000
3️⃣ The daily line has now entered the rhythm of 'decline - weak rebound - further decline'
Current key positions:
🔻 There is a vacuum gap in the $89,000-$90,000 area, and a rebound to here might again be a selling pressure point
🔻 If it can't hold around $95,500 below, it might need to test previous lows or even lower
Although the market still has expectations for interest rate cuts, I think this wave of rebound might have already digested part of those expectations. The question now is simple: do you believe in 'the bull returns' or 'the trend has changed'?
If today the price rebounds above $88,500, will you choose to go short or buy the dip? Let's discuss your views in the comments!

As soon as it was afternoon, it consolidated, that big bearish line in the morning trapped so many bulls, and now the bulls are struggling too much, feeling sorry for you.

The first day of December, still Monday, jumped into the water at seven o'clock in the morning, what a surprise.....

I've seen enough, just a small play

5000 turns into 500,000
Currently 487161U.
There is no dignified way to make money in this world; it is only dignified after you've earned it. The direction is given to you, but whether you can take it depends entirely on yourself.

Finally starting to rise, is Brother Pan's prediction accurate?
Breaking three thousand one is not a problem, let's see if it can stabilize at $ETH

I am really looking forward to a Friday with a white swan; it's been a long time since I've seen one. Today might be a showdown, determining life and death. If it pulls back to 2900, I will leave; otherwise, I will keep watching around 3200.

This K-line is so stable, it's the calm before the storm.

5000 flipping 500,000
Currently 485200U
The most cunning move in the market is the 'false breakout'. It specifically hunts down those who are impatient and believe in 'chasing the breakout'.
A successful pullback is a 'stress test' for this breakout.
And 90% of the profit comes from that elegant pullback.

Last night, a brother asked me a question:
"The direction is right, so why still get liquidated?"
I only replied to him with four words—"Not rolling the position."
Most people's liquidation in the crypto world is not due to bad luck, but rather chaotic methods.
They rush to sell when the price rises a little, hurriedly add more when it falls, and can't help but increase their position during a rebound...
The more they operate, the more chaotic it becomes, and the faster they lose.
Those who can truly survive rely on a stable "position rolling logic,"
It's not gambling, nor is it all-in,
The core is just one sentence:
Protect the principal, roll the profits, act at key levels.
Let me break down a practical position rolling strategy for you; you'll understand it at a glance:
Step 1: Trial position → Verify the direction with the smallest cost
Assuming you have only 10,000 U and are bearish.
Don't go all-in right away; instead, start with a 5% position to test.
Moderate leverage, stop-loss firmly set.
Don't act without signals; minimizing losses is winning.
Step 2: Capture profits → Use profits to increase the position, keep the principal unchanged
Once the trial position has floating profits, start rolling:
If you earn 50%, take half of the profits to increase the position
Continue breaking levels, then use the remaining profits for a second leg
Throughout the process, use profits to "fight," without touching the principal.
Even if the market reverses, it only returns the profits to zero, not affecting the base.
Step 3: Trend opens → Lock in a safety net, capture the entire market segment
When floating profits exceed the principal, hedge and lock in the base position.
As the market approaches the end, place a light "ghost order" to capture the last acceleration.
After completing this set of actions, you'll find:
In a trending market, there’s no need to predict; just focus on following the trend.
Many people study indicators, models, and news every day,
But what truly determines your profits and losses
Is often the 3 minutes of not being controlled by emotions at critical moments.
If you don't break free from the chaotic phases of adding, running, and increasing,
You will never keep up with the rhythm of the trend.
Position rolling is not a technique for getting rich quickly, but a system that allows you to "live longer" in the market.
It's not difficult to see the right direction; the challenge is to roll the profits to the end.
If you want to learn systematically, @盯盘眼

In this market, it's a grind all afternoon, and a weld all afternoon.
Currently, from the 4-hour chart, there is still a downward trend, but brothers, tomorrow is Friday, and it's Thanksgiving for placing orders, so be a bit cautious to avoid getting caught.

Not too fast, not too slow, another order of 3900U taken today

5000 for a turnover of 500,000
Currently 481536U

There are no US stocks today, the market is dragging on painfully. I have reminded everyone long ago, if it can't go up tonight, it should drop down. As expected, it has come true.