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be careful you are best

来了,就要坚强。别躺下,别扒下。油罐号@danielzhong6110, 垫报定阅号:@abcdcro
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The current market, Let's take a look at today's market. Except for gold tokens, everything is experiencing a downward trend. What does this mean? We need to analyze it from a macro perspective. First, the international situation is quite chaotic, with Japan causing trouble, China wanting to take action, and Russia and Ukraine constantly attacking each other. Europe and the US are enjoying the holiday atmosphere while China is aiming to regulate cryptocurrency speculation. So, do you know why gold has risen? The risk-averse sentiment is strong. Seize the opportunity to accumulate BTC, ETH, and quality altcoins while waiting for liquidity to return. Those holding spot assets and fearing unrealized losses can hedge. Protect your USDT. #BTC
The current market,
Let's take a look at today's market. Except for gold tokens, everything is experiencing a downward trend. What does this mean? We need to analyze it from a macro perspective. First, the international situation is quite chaotic, with Japan causing trouble, China wanting to take action, and Russia and Ukraine constantly attacking each other. Europe and the US are enjoying the holiday atmosphere while China is aiming to regulate cryptocurrency speculation. So, do you know why gold has risen? The risk-averse sentiment is strong. Seize the opportunity to accumulate BTC, ETH, and quality altcoins while waiting for liquidity to return. Those holding spot assets and fearing unrealized losses can hedge. Protect your USDT. #BTC
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December 17, 2025 BTC Market Last night, the U.S. non-farm employment and unemployment rates both rose, BTC rebounded to 87000, and the market remains sluggish, buying in batches. #BTC #分析行情
December 17, 2025 BTC Market

Last night, the U.S. non-farm employment and unemployment rates both rose, BTC rebounded to 87000, and the market remains sluggish, buying in batches. #BTC #分析行情
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December 16, 2025 BTC Market Today's market is very poor, BTC has fallen continuously from 90,000 to the range of 85,000-86,000. Whether it can hold here remains to be seen. Buy in batches to protect your U. #BTC
December 16, 2025 BTC Market
Today's market is very poor, BTC has fallen continuously from 90,000 to the range of 85,000-86,000. Whether it can hold here remains to be seen. Buy in batches to protect your U. #BTC
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December 15, 2025 BTC Market The BTC market shows a shrinking rebound, low liquidity, and high panic. Accumulating. #BTC
December 15, 2025 BTC Market
The BTC market shows a shrinking rebound, low liquidity, and high panic. Accumulating. #BTC
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December 14, 2025 BTC Market Seize the opportunity to accumulate, pay attention to Japan's interest rate hike. BTC, cryptocurrency, FED, fluctuations, sluggishness, decline. #BTC
December 14, 2025 BTC Market

Seize the opportunity to accumulate, pay attention to Japan's interest rate hike. BTC, cryptocurrency, FED, fluctuations, sluggishness, decline. #BTC
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December 10, 2025 btc market btc attempted to break 94000 during the Asian time zone, but failed, fluctuating downwards. Closely monitor the results of the FED interest rate meeting, and market liquidity remains thin. #BTC
December 10, 2025 btc market
btc attempted to break 94000 during the Asian time zone, but failed, fluctuating downwards. Closely monitor the results of the FED interest rate meeting, and market liquidity remains thin. #BTC
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2025.12.09 btc market #btc
2025.12.09 btc market #btc
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Trading cryptocurrencies must consider the market, especially BTC, which is very sensitive to macroeconomic factors as a leading coin. Just like you shouldn't buy coins promoted by Sun, but you can still listen to what he has to say. #BTC
Trading cryptocurrencies must consider the market, especially BTC, which is very sensitive to macroeconomic factors as a leading coin. Just like you shouldn't buy coins promoted by Sun, but you can still listen to what he has to say. #BTC
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December 8, 2025 BTC market #BTC
December 8, 2025 BTC market #BTC
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On December 11, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates, which will lead to a rebound in BTC. However, overall macro liquidity remains weak, and the height of the rebound is yet to be tested. On December 4, Bitcoin failed to break through 94,000, and the market has been relatively weak recently. On December 5, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was reduced by 16 billion, continuing the reduction, and liquidity is not optimistic, with bank reserves decreasing by 20 billion, maintaining pressure. However, the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance continues to play music and dance. According to public information, Bitcoin's mining cost continues to reach new highs, and recently picking up chips has not resulted in losses. #BTC
On December 11, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates, which will lead to a rebound in BTC. However, overall macro liquidity remains weak, and the height of the rebound is yet to be tested. On December 4, Bitcoin failed to break through 94,000, and the market has been relatively weak recently. On December 5, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was reduced by 16 billion, continuing the reduction, and liquidity is not optimistic, with bank reserves decreasing by 20 billion, maintaining pressure. However, the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance continues to play music and dance. According to public information, Bitcoin's mining cost continues to reach new highs, and recently picking up chips has not resulted in losses. #BTC
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Fluctuating market, just a few casual remarksAt this moment, you should feel fortunate, fortunate that you are still at this poker table and can still see this post I made. On November 21, BTC fell below $86,000, with 245,000 people liquidated globally in 24 hours; On October 11, the total liquidation exceeded $19.1 billion, with over 1.6 million people liquidated; I believe everyone knows that even with various leak-blocking measures in the Heavenly Empire, the proportion of Chinese people trading in the cryptocurrency circle is definitely not low. In just one month, during these two epic liquidations, how many Chinese people were affected? What we see are cold numbers, behind which are vibrant lives. So, I say, if you can still stay at the poker table now, you have already outperformed 80% of the people.

Fluctuating market, just a few casual remarks

At this moment, you should feel fortunate, fortunate that you are still at this poker table and can still see this post I made.
On November 21, BTC fell below $86,000, with 245,000 people liquidated globally in 24 hours;
On October 11, the total liquidation exceeded $19.1 billion, with over 1.6 million people liquidated;
I believe everyone knows that even with various leak-blocking measures in the Heavenly Empire, the proportion of Chinese people trading in the cryptocurrency circle is definitely not low. In just one month, during these two epic liquidations, how many Chinese people were affected? What we see are cold numbers, behind which are vibrant lives.
So, I say, if you can still stay at the poker table now, you have already outperformed 80% of the people.
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This morning I was taken to attend a new book launch for elderly care, where guests with official backgrounds shared data indicating that the proportion of the aging population in the country is 30%, and in a certain major city, it has already reached 37%, entering a stage of severe aging society. Now, let's take a look at AI and blockchain, is it necessary to get involved? Absolutely necessary. Is it useful? Of course it is. You might ask if BTC has any significance, if ETH has any value, and if SOL is just air. BTC certainly has significance, ETH definitely has value, and SOL is certainly not just air. In the future, where will the wealth of the elderly and society be placed, who will take it on? The stock market? That's just one aspect. Dalio once said, a person's debt is another person's asset. Think about it carefully, do you know what that means? The debt of sovereign nations around the world is constantly hitting new highs, can just one stock market handle that? Observant people have already noticed that sovereign funds and pension funds in certain countries have started to dip their toes into cryptocurrency. You might ask if cryptocurrency has any value, if it is useful. So, you know what to do now, BTC, ETH, SOL need to be promoted, these are the most fundamental infrastructures for the future wealth transfer. #btc #ETH #sol
This morning I was taken to attend a new book launch for elderly care, where guests with official backgrounds shared data indicating that the proportion of the aging population in the country is 30%, and in a certain major city, it has already reached 37%, entering a stage of severe aging society. Now, let's take a look at AI and blockchain, is it necessary to get involved? Absolutely necessary. Is it useful? Of course it is. You might ask if BTC has any significance, if ETH has any value, and if SOL is just air. BTC certainly has significance, ETH definitely has value, and SOL is certainly not just air. In the future, where will the wealth of the elderly and society be placed, who will take it on? The stock market? That's just one aspect. Dalio once said, a person's debt is another person's asset. Think about it carefully, do you know what that means? The debt of sovereign nations around the world is constantly hitting new highs, can just one stock market handle that? Observant people have already noticed that sovereign funds and pension funds in certain countries have started to dip their toes into cryptocurrency. You might ask if cryptocurrency has any value, if it is useful. So, you know what to do now, BTC, ETH, SOL need to be promoted, these are the most fundamental infrastructures for the future wealth transfer. #btc #ETH #sol
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Last night, the pancake hit 93000 but was quickly knocked down. It is obvious that liquidity is still weak. Looking at the trading volume of various tokens, whether in spot or futures, it is in a shrinking state. Since the short-term bulls encountered a shock, they will accumulate through fluctuations. The net liquidity of the US dollar is slowly recovering from a low point, and the quantitative tightening will be lifted in December, allowing liquidity to be replenished. Observing the market, you will find that high-quality project parties have been stabilizing the market, such as ASTER, which has maintained a stable price. As a star project in the perps track, it must occupy an advantage in the market to attract more users, allowing for buying on dips. #btc
Last night, the pancake hit 93000 but was quickly knocked down. It is obvious that liquidity is still weak. Looking at the trading volume of various tokens, whether in spot or futures, it is in a shrinking state. Since the short-term bulls encountered a shock, they will accumulate through fluctuations. The net liquidity of the US dollar is slowly recovering from a low point, and the quantitative tightening will be lifted in December, allowing liquidity to be replenished. Observing the market, you will find that high-quality project parties have been stabilizing the market, such as ASTER, which has maintained a stable price. As a star project in the perps track, it must occupy an advantage in the market to attract more users, allowing for buying on dips. #btc
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Good products speak for themselves, and the cryptocurrency world is no different. HYPE, pump, ASTER, the early benefits have already been consumed. A few years ago, single coins skyrocketed thousands to tens of thousands of times, creating an atmosphere of speculation everywhere in crypto promotion. Now, public chains have matured, and the competition lies in the value of on-chain applications. Applications with high user adoption that can generate real cash flow will win this round. The competitive model in the cryptocurrency world will gradually shift to user adoption rates and locked value.
Good products speak for themselves, and the cryptocurrency world is no different. HYPE, pump, ASTER, the early benefits have already been consumed. A few years ago, single coins skyrocketed thousands to tens of thousands of times, creating an atmosphere of speculation everywhere in crypto promotion. Now, public chains have matured, and the competition lies in the value of on-chain applications. Applications with high user adoption that can generate real cash flow will win this round. The competitive model in the cryptocurrency world will gradually shift to user adoption rates and locked value.
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Using history as a mirror, history is the true futurism.
Using history as a mirror, history is the true futurism.
be careful you are best
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Review: The 2019 Money Shortage Event
In the previous article 'How the Federal Reserve Stopping Quantitative Tightening in December Affects the Market,' the expected impact on the market after the Federal Reserve halted quantitative tightening in December was elaborated in detail, with one important point being the return of liquidity. The historical '2019 money shortage event' was mentioned during this period, so let us review the entire event.
In mid-September 2019, the U.S. repurchase agreement (Repo) market experienced a severe liquidity crisis, referred to as the 'money shortage' or 'repo market crisis.' This was the most serious stress event in the U.S. short-term financing market since the 2008 financial crisis, causing overnight repo rates to soar to 10%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target range (around 2% at the time). The Federal Reserve was forced to intervene urgently, injecting hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity into the market. This incident exposed the side effects of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) policy and the issue of insufficient reserves in the banking system. Below, I will explain in detail from several aspects: background, causes, event process, Federal Reserve's response, impacts, and lessons learned.
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Review: The 2019 Money Shortage EventIn the previous article 'How the Federal Reserve Stopping Quantitative Tightening in December Affects the Market,' the expected impact on the market after the Federal Reserve halted quantitative tightening in December was elaborated in detail, with one important point being the return of liquidity. The historical '2019 money shortage event' was mentioned during this period, so let us review the entire event. In mid-September 2019, the U.S. repurchase agreement (Repo) market experienced a severe liquidity crisis, referred to as the 'money shortage' or 'repo market crisis.' This was the most serious stress event in the U.S. short-term financing market since the 2008 financial crisis, causing overnight repo rates to soar to 10%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target range (around 2% at the time). The Federal Reserve was forced to intervene urgently, injecting hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity into the market. This incident exposed the side effects of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) policy and the issue of insufficient reserves in the banking system. Below, I will explain in detail from several aspects: background, causes, event process, Federal Reserve's response, impacts, and lessons learned.

Review: The 2019 Money Shortage Event

In the previous article 'How the Federal Reserve Stopping Quantitative Tightening in December Affects the Market,' the expected impact on the market after the Federal Reserve halted quantitative tightening in December was elaborated in detail, with one important point being the return of liquidity. The historical '2019 money shortage event' was mentioned during this period, so let us review the entire event.
In mid-September 2019, the U.S. repurchase agreement (Repo) market experienced a severe liquidity crisis, referred to as the 'money shortage' or 'repo market crisis.' This was the most serious stress event in the U.S. short-term financing market since the 2008 financial crisis, causing overnight repo rates to soar to 10%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target range (around 2% at the time). The Federal Reserve was forced to intervene urgently, injecting hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity into the market. This incident exposed the side effects of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) policy and the issue of insufficient reserves in the banking system. Below, I will explain in detail from several aspects: background, causes, event process, Federal Reserve's response, impacts, and lessons learned.
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What is the impact of the Federal Reserve stopping quantitative tightening in December?The Federal Reserve officially announced at the FOMC meeting on October 29, 2025, that it will end quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025, ceasing the active reduction of Treasury holdings (previously allowing up to $5 billion in maturing Treasury bonds not to be rolled over each month) and will reinvest the full principal of all maturing securities (including MBS), primarily shifting to purchasing short-term Treasury bills (T-bills). This marks the effective end of the QT cycle that began in June 2022, with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size expected to stabilize around $6.6 trillion (no longer net shrinking). The core reason for stopping QT Bank reserves are approaching the lower limit of 'ample reserves', with recent signs of tightening in the money market (such as the SOFR rate briefly surging and increased pressure in the repo market).

What is the impact of the Federal Reserve stopping quantitative tightening in December?

The Federal Reserve officially announced at the FOMC meeting on October 29, 2025, that it will end quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025, ceasing the active reduction of Treasury holdings (previously allowing up to $5 billion in maturing Treasury bonds not to be rolled over each month) and will reinvest the full principal of all maturing securities (including MBS), primarily shifting to purchasing short-term Treasury bills (T-bills). This marks the effective end of the QT cycle that began in June 2022, with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size expected to stabilize around $6.6 trillion (no longer net shrinking).
The core reason for stopping QT
Bank reserves are approaching the lower limit of 'ample reserves', with recent signs of tightening in the money market (such as the SOFR rate briefly surging and increased pressure in the repo market).
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Why did U.S. stocks fall on November 17, Asian markets fall on November 18, cryptocurrencies also continue to decline with the market, and gold prices are also falling? What exactly is causing the entire market to decline?On November 17 (Monday), U.S. stocks experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling over 500 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropping by about 0.9%-1%. This was one of the worst single-day performances in recent times. The main reasons include: Concerns over tech stock valuations: The market is worried that AI-related stocks (such as Nvidia, Super Micro Computer, Palantir, etc.) are overvalued. These stocks have led the market this year, but investors are starting to take profits and rotate into other sectors. Nvidia is about to announce its earnings, which further exacerbates uncertainty. Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations weaken: Several Fed officials made hawkish statements, emphasizing that inflation remains high and the labor market is stable. The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to below 50% (previously higher). This has led investors to lower their expectations for easing policies, pushing bond yields up and impacting the stock market.

Why did U.S. stocks fall on November 17, Asian markets fall on November 18, cryptocurrencies also continue to decline with the market, and gold prices are also falling? What exactly is causing the entire market to decline?

On November 17 (Monday), U.S. stocks experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling over 500 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropping by about 0.9%-1%. This was one of the worst single-day performances in recent times. The main reasons include:






Concerns over tech stock valuations: The market is worried that AI-related stocks (such as Nvidia, Super Micro Computer, Palantir, etc.) are overvalued. These stocks have led the market this year, but investors are starting to take profits and rotate into other sectors. Nvidia is about to announce its earnings, which further exacerbates uncertainty.
Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations weaken: Several Fed officials made hawkish statements, emphasizing that inflation remains high and the labor market is stable. The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to below 50% (previously higher). This has led investors to lower their expectations for easing policies, pushing bond yields up and impacting the stock market.
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Brothers, when was the last time you saw the big coin starting with 8? Come on, let's take a look together. That's right, the last time the big coin reached this position was also during a correction in the cryptocurrency market, in March 2025. When you encounter cheap chips, start hoarding them; the big coin is the hard currency. You will thank me in a month. Let time be the witness. #BTC
Brothers, when was the last time you saw the big coin starting with 8? Come on, let's take a look together. That's right, the last time the big coin reached this position was also during a correction in the cryptocurrency market, in March 2025. When you encounter cheap chips, start hoarding them; the big coin is the hard currency. You will thank me in a month. Let time be the witness. #BTC
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Brothers, a promise is a promise. I'll give you the data directly. This morning, the U.S. Treasury held a 3-month Treasury bill auction and a 6-month Treasury bond auction. No fluff here. So can the market rebound? With too much bleeding, what you need to do is protect your principal and wait for the market to improve. No one will save you, except for yourself. You are your own biggest Alpha. #国债
Brothers, a promise is a promise. I'll give you the data directly. This morning, the U.S. Treasury held a 3-month Treasury bill auction and a 6-month Treasury bond auction. No fluff here. So can the market rebound? With too much bleeding, what you need to do is protect your principal and wait for the market to improve. No one will save you, except for yourself. You are your own biggest Alpha. #国债
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