CryptoQuant Quicktake

Data from the Miners' Position Index (MPI) indicates that the index has stabilized at around -0.94, while Bitcoin is trading near $63,000. The data suggests that miners' activity, as reflected by the MPI, has remained in negative territory for most of the recent period, with intermittent rallies that quickly faded before the index returned to lower levels. This follows a period of significant volatility in Bitcoin's price, during which the index maintained its overall trend without registering a sustained move into positive territory.
The data also shows that the miners' index has become more stable compared to the sharp fluctuations observed at the beginning of the year, when it recorded elevated readings for brief periods before gradually declining and moving within a less volatile range. Recent values continue to point to a persistent negative trend, with no clear signs of a structural shift in the behavior of miners over the past few weeks.
The MPI remaining below zero for an extended period reflects the continuation of the conditions that have characterized miners' positioning in recent months, with the absence of the exceptional upward spikes seen during previous phases. The current reading of -0.94 also extends the trend that has been in place since the second quarter of the year, as negative readings have occurred more frequently than positive ones, highlighting the continued stability of the index within its recent range.
Written by Arab Chain

With holders who’ve been holding since Bitcoin’s early days, it’s more accurate to focus on what’s happening on the active supply side instead, notably through the True Market Mean.
This indicator provides the average price of active BTC, meaning it excludes from the count all coins that haven’t moved in a very long time, since their valuation basis no longer has anything to do with today’s valuations, and since they are partly lost BTC, they end up being illiquid.
Currently the TMM is estimated at around $76,700 and acts as resistance, as we saw in May when many investors seemed to prefer exiting the market without a loss rather than continuing to hold.
Combined with the AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value), which reflects the current market valuation relative to this cost basis of the active supply (TMM).
It’s currently hovering around 0.8, a devaluation zone meaning this active cohort is on average at a 20% loss.
This is starting to be significant but isn’t yet equivalent to previous bear markets where this ratio reached 0.5-0.6, or losses of around 40%-50%.
I’d be tempted to say we don’t necessarily need to reach such a devaluation for BTC to bounce back, especially given the adoption BTC has seen this cycle.
That said, nothing so far contradicts its cyclicality, even the arrival of institutions and ETFs hasn’t changed anything, no matter how many billions of dollars were injected, BTC still dictates its own rules, and for now we owe it to ourselves to at least stay humble in the face of that.
Written by Darkfost

The market is struggling in terms of liquidity.
USDC and USDT market cap are down -3.6% and -2% respectively over the past 30 days.
Overall, we can see that this slowdown has now been in place since November 2025.
This decrease is explained by the fact that more capital has left the crypto market than liquidity has entered it.
To understand this properly, stablecoins are notably issued when demand increases, whereas when demand weakens, issuers burn this unnecessary surplus, which allows us to gauge demand and liquidity flows.
For now, we remain in an environment where liquidity is increasingly constrained.
Written by Darkfost

Following Binance’s June 26 announcement to delist ALCX (effective July 10), the token’s on-chain dynamics experienced a violent structural shift. The initial news triggered an immediate ~30% price contraction. Concurrently, network data reveals a massive 1,289% week-over-week surge in Binance withdrawal transactions, peaking at an anomaly of 614 individual withdrawal counts on July 1 (compared to a baseline of under 20).
A major exchange delisting inherently creates a localized liquidity vacuum. The explosive 3,856% surge in Binance inflows combined with a 1,484% spike in outflows illustrates a classic “forced migration” phase. Retail users are likely panic-selling their positions (driving inflows), while savvy investors, market makers, and arbitrageurs are rapidly withdrawing tokens to self-custody or alternative exchanges (driving the massive outflows) before the trading pairs are suspended.
Interestingly, while the price action reflects severe capitulation, broader network activity metrics—such as active addresses (+107%) and total token transfers (+510%)—have skyrocketed. However, unlike organic utility-driven growth, this spike in activity is purely defensive. The persistent negative netflow (-285%) confirms that, ultimately, capital is fleeing the Binance ecosystem, fundamentally altering the token’s distribution landscape.
This abrupt structural reorganization creates conditions of extreme short-term fragility. As the July 10 deadline approaches, the continued draining of Binance’s liquidity pool may lead to erratic volatility. Historically, tokens facing similar delisting events experience severe downward pressure followed by a potential stabilization phase, once the forced-selling exhaustion is reached and the new fragmented liquidity landscape takes shape.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Crypto exchanges are evolving from digital asset marketplaces into multi-asset financial platforms. Binance, Bitget, KuCoin and other major exchanges have recently expanded their offerings to include TradFi Equity Perpetuals, giving users synthetic exposure to U.S. equities through perpetual futures.
As the accompanying chart shows, trading volume surged through June 2026, with Binance emerging as the clear market leader, driving most of the industry's growth. This demonstrates that demand for equity-linked products on crypto exchanges is accelerating rapidly.
Unlike traditional stock markets, which operate only during business hours, TradFi Equity Perpetuals allow investors to trade equity price movements 24/7 using crypto assets such as Bitcoin or USDT as collateral. Investors gain price exposure without directly owning the underlying shares, making these products highly attractive to crypto-native traders.
This trend also reflects changing investor behavior. Rather than maintaining separate accounts for crypto and equities, many investors increasingly prefer accessing multiple asset classes through a single platform.
At XWIN, we believe this is not simply the launch of another derivatives product. It signals a broader shift toward integrated financial markets, where cryptocurrencies, equities, ETFs, bonds, commodities, and eventually tokenized real-world assets can coexist on blockchain-based infrastructure.
TradFi Equity Perpetuals may represent the first step toward a future in which global financial markets operate continuously, without the limitations of traditional trading hours.
Written by XWIN Japan

Exchange Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data indicate that the derivatives market is focused on creating liquidity pools rather than establishing a clear direction.
CVD and Volume Analysis by Exchange:
Binance: Although CVD is positive at +$800M, it lacks significant buying weight relative to overall exchange volume, creating only limited pressure. In February, at $60k BTC, Binance CVD was at -$7.5B, signaling extreme selling pressure that ultimately triggered a sharp upward reaction due to massive liquidity absorption. The current +$800M does not suggest a similar macro reaction.
OKX: Currently at -$600M. It shows more negative pressure than in February, but reflects a mild recovery compared to early June.
Bybit: Maintaining its negative structure at -$950M. This indicates that longs are being crushed while short positions are continuously opened via aggressive market orders.
Deribit: CVD rapidly jumped from -$750M to -$250M, demonstrating a sudden and sharp shift in institutional positioning.
General Assessment and Market Outlook:
Binance's neutral volume implies that the market will likely continue its choppy, sideways behavior to build fresh liquidity pools instead of triggering an immediate breakout.
Combined with data from other exchanges, the primary trend remains fundamentally bearish. However, the shifting dynamics on Bybit and Deribit suggest that brief, multi-day relief rallies are highly probable within this macro decline. Expect short-term upward fluctuations, but keep in mind that the broader trend points downward. The $60,000 - $68,000 range stands out as a critical zone for consolidation and ultimate direction setting.
Written by BorisD

Bitcoin perpetual futures are flashing structural warnings for leveraged traders as funding conditions shift into a zone of strong bullish leverage, activating a long squeeze setup.
As of July 2, the Binance BTC funding rate sits at 0.006078, pushing the 7-day moving average to 0.005601. This represents a sharp acceleration in long leverage when compared to the 30-day average of 0.002156, a statistical divergence reflected by a z-score of 1.313.
Over the past week, Binance has printed elevated funding above the 0.005 threshold for five out of seven days, marking a persistent willingness among traders to pay an aggressive premium to maintain directional long exposure.
Digging into exchange-specific market structure reveals an interesting divergence. While Binance funding remains firmly elevated, it is actually lagging behind the broader market. The market median funding rate currently sits higher at 0.007634, creating a negative Binance-to-market spread of -0.001557.
This mild divergence signal suggests that speculative appetite on alternative exchanges is even more aggressive than on Binance. Historically, when market-wide funding eclipses Binance in this manner, it indicates frothy retail-driven leverage that is highly sensitive to sudden spot volatility.
The investor psychology behind this BTC market structure is straightforward. High conviction in the near-term trend has translated into over-leveraged positioning. With 23 out of the last 30 days printing positive Binance funding, the derivatives market has accumulated significant latent sell pressure in the form of stacked long liquidations.
The active long squeeze parameters indicate that a moderately sharp move against these overextended positions could trigger a cascading unwind. Unless spot demand steps in to absorb this leverage organically, the current funding environment leaves Bitcoin structurally fragile to downside vol
Written by Crazzyblockk

Bitcoin's on-chain cost basis structure is flashing a configuration that demands attention. Not because it predicts price—but because it maps who is in profit, who is in pain, and who is positioned to act.
Spot at $62,571 sits just 1.4% above the New Holder cost basis at $61,683. This is the average acquisition price for coins moved within the last 0–3 months—the freshest capital in the market. Hold above this level, and recent entrants remain in profit. Break below, and the most reactive cohort slips into unrealized loss.
The Short-Term Holder cohort (0–155 days) tells a different story. Their average cost basis sits at $72,243—nearly $10,000 above spot. This means the average buyer from the past five months is underwater by over 13%. This is the primary source of overhead supply and behavioral pressure.
What makes this structure particularly interesting is the inversion between the 1–3 month and 3–6 month cohorts—a regime that has occurred only nine times in the full dataset. Newer buyers are entering at lower prices than medium-term holders. This signals redistribution, not distribution.
The 2–10 year+ cohort holds at an average cost of $17,861. These are the deepest conviction holders—the ones who have held through multiple cycles. They're sitting on 250%+ unrealized gains. They are not selling, and they are not the source of sell pressure.
The Realized Price ($53,101) and Balanced Price ($39,194) remain well below spot, suggesting we are in a correction within a broader cycle—not a structural breakdown.
The line is clear. The data is in. The market decides.
Written by Crazzyblockk

Based on recent Bitcoin MVRV data, it appears somewhat premature to conclude that we have reached the absolute bottom of the current market cycle. The MVRV ratio is currently hovering at 1.18, accompanied by an ongoing death cross between the 365-day moving average (blue line) and the long-term 4000-day moving average (black line).
Looking back at the bottoming periods of previous cycles, the MVRV ratio historically dropped as low as the 0.8 level, marking a true bottom zone where the realized value fell below the market value. While it is true that a broader bearish trend is underway and the possibility of further downside remains, the current market conditions could actually present a strategic window. This period may prove to be highly effective for investors utilizing incremental accumulation strategies, such as Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA).
Written by Yonsei_dent

The market share-weighted average cost basis for Short-Term Holders (1w-1m, 1m-3m, and 3m-6m cohorts) currently sits at $74.6k.
At current price levels, these investors are experiencing an average loss of approximately 18%, a trend that has persisted since early June. Because short-term holders are highly vulnerable to unrealized losses, the prolonged duration of this underwater phase means the risk of panic selling in response to even minor negative news or events remains extremely high.
The situation is equally severe for the 6-12 month holders who entered the market near the peak of the bull run. They are enduring significant pain as prices decline. Notably, their share of the realized cap has surged to 35.1%. It is highly likely that this group is facing intense psychological pressure on par with that of the short-term holders.
In conclusion, the current market is in a heavy and fragile state, actively suppressed by a massive wall of underwater supply overhead.
Written by Yonsei_dent

The Supply in Profit (%) metric indicates the percentage of the circulating Bitcoin supply that is currently held in profit. It is widely used to evaluate the current stage of the market cycle and identify potential phase transitions.
Bull Market (Euphoria): Greater than 80%
Transition Phase: 55% to 80%
Bear Market / Bottom Phase: 55% or lower
Currently, the Supply in Profit stands at 51.9%. It has consistently remained within the Bear Market / Bottom territory since June.
The downward trend has not only persisted since October 2025, but the metric is also approaching the 44% range, which marked the absolute bottom of the 2022 bear market. During the previous cycle, the Bear Market / Bottom phase lasted for approximately 8 months. If we apply this historical timeline to our current data, this phase could potentially stretch until September or October.
Assuming that market cycles repeat and exhibit similar patterns over time, the on-chain data strongly suggests that we are currently navigating toward the ultimate cycle bottom.
Written by Yonsei_dent

Bitcoin mining difficulty and network hashrate have continued to decline within a broad structural trend following the sharp drop observed during January and February. The critical factor distinguishing the current market behavior is that this downward trajectory is lasting significantly longer than previous historical corrections.
Historically, continuous declines lasted 64 days between May and July 2021, and 86 days between April and July 2024. However, the current downturn has persisted for a staggering 234 days (approximately 7 months) of extended contraction.
For Bitcoin, a prolonged reduction in mining difficulty and hash rate—both of which represent foundational network security and fundamental metrics—presents an unfavorable development regarding its overall standing as a digital asset.
Conversely, if a definitive upward trend becomes firmly established in these metrics, it should be recognized as a key mid-to-long-term signal indicating a robust resurgence of interest and network expansion within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Written by Yonsei_dent

Stablecoin Inflows Hit 18-Month Low — What It Means for Bitcoin
By Zakariya Sharif | July 4, 2026
Bitcoin is currently trading around $62,397, down significantly from its all-time high of $109,000 reached in late 2025. While price action alone tells part of the story, on-chain data reveals a deeper concern — stablecoin inflows to exchanges have collapsed to their lowest level in 18 months.
What the Data Shows
According to CryptoQuant, the mean stablecoin inflow across all exchanges currently sits at 21,557 — a 56.25% drop from recent levels. During Bitcoin's peak rally in mid-2025, inflows regularly spiked between 100,000 and 280,000, providing the buying pressure needed to push prices higher. That fuel has nearly vanished.
Why This Matters
Stablecoins sitting on exchanges represent ready-to-deploy capital — money waiting to buy crypto. When inflows are high, it signals fresh demand entering the market. When inflows collapse as they have now, it means buyers are sitting on the sidelines.
Simply put: you cannot have a sustained rally without buying power.
The ROC Warning
The Rate of Change (ROC) indicator shows one significant spike in May 2026 — a brief wave of capital that failed to reverse the trend. Since then, ROC has flatlined, confirming that the May move was isolated, not the start of a recovery.
Two Scenarios to Watch
Bearish continuation — if inflows remain below 30,000 for the next two weeks, expect Bitcoin to retest the $58,000–$60,000 support zone.
Reversal signal — if inflows recover above 80,000–100,000 consistently, that would be the first real sign that buyers are returning and a meaningful rally could follow.
Written by Zakariya Sharif

• Same asset, multiple dimensions, different manifestations of the same broader market deterioration: Price, On-Chain Data (Supply, Demand, Holders), and Derivatives (Open Interest).
• All of this suggests that Bitcoin remains in a bearish macro trend.
Written by Facundo Fama

Observation
Ethereum is currently exhibiting a profound structural divergence between speculative capital and network utility. On-chain data reveals that new smart contract deployments have surged by 303% compared to the 90-day baseline. Conversely, speculative liquidity is rapidly exiting the market, evidenced by Binance stablecoin netflows dropping 887%, averaging a massive -$170M daily outflow.
Context
This extreme contrast highlights a classic “builder’s phase.” The heavy outflows of stablecoins from Binance, combined with a 167% increase in stablecoin redemptions globally, suggest that retail and institutional traders are de-risking and moving capital to the sidelines. The persistently negative Coinbase premium (-0.15) further confirms this widespread market apathy and lack of speculative appetite.
Comparison
However, while traders are abandoning exchanges, developers are aggressively stepping in. Taking advantage of the current macro apathy and historically cheap block space (with median transaction burn dropping by 60%), builders are deploying decentralized applications at a furious pace. This means the underlying network is expanding its infrastructure precisely when token price and exchange liquidity are being ignored.
Potential Outcome
Historically, periods marked by severe exchange liquidity contraction alongside explosive developer activity create the foundational layer for future fundamental cycles. While the current lack of stablecoin purchasing power on Binance may suppress short-term price action, this quiet infrastructure expansion creates conditions that often precede utility-driven momentum once macroeconomic liquidity eventually returns.
Written by CryptoOnchain

• Bitcoin on-chain indicators closed on June 30 as follows:
1) Supply in Loss: 10M BTC.
2) Realized Cap: $1.06T.
3) Long-Term Holder SOPR: 0.61.
• This level of on-chain pain is rarely observed and could suggest a potential medium- to long-term DCA accumulation opportunity.
Written by Facundo Fama

• Bitcoin on-chain indicators closed on June 30 as follows:
1) Supply in Loss: 10M BTC.
2) Realized Cap: $1.06T.
3) Long-Term Holder SOPR: 0.61.
• This level of on-chain pain is rarely observed and could suggest a potential medium- to long-term DCA accumulation opportunity.
Written by Facundo Fama

CryptoQuant's latest Weekly Report suggests Bitcoin may be approaching another period of significant volatility.
The report highlights a sharp increase in exchange inflows, with nearly 50,000 BTC transferred to exchanges on June 30—one of the largest spikes recorded this year. At the same time, the average deposit size doubled from roughly 1 BTC to 2 BTC, indicating that whales and institutional investors are becoming increasingly active.
Exchange deposits do not necessarily mean investors are preparing to sell. They may also reflect collateral transfers or positioning for derivatives trading. However, history shows that unusually large inflows often precede periods of heightened market volatility.
The trend extends beyond Bitcoin. Ethereum exchange inflows have also surged, while altcoin exchange deposit transactions recently climbed to levels last seen before Bitcoin's previous correction. This suggests that capital is moving across the entire crypto market rather than within a single asset.
xWIN's View
At xWIN, we do not view these on-chain signals as confirmation of a new bear market. Instead, we believe they indicate that market participants are actively repositioning ahead of the next major move.
On-chain data is valuable because it reveals investor behavior before prices react. Rather than focusing solely on exchange inflows, we believe investors should monitor them alongside ETF flows, Coinbase Premium, Apparent Demand, and stablecoin liquidity.
Whether Bitcoin breaks lower or stages a recovery will ultimately depend on whether new capital enters the market. The current data suggests that a decisive move may be approaching—and that this is a period requiring closer attention rather than stronger conviction in either direction.
Written by XWIN Japan

• The Realized Cap is one of the most important and foundational tools in the on-chain analysis discipline.
1) Apr 19, 2024. BTC: $63K. Bitcoin’s Fourth Halving.
2) On the monthly timeframe, Realized Cap was in a bullish trend (orange), then gradually lost momentum and eventually turned bearish (blue).
3) Apr 7, 2025. BTC: $74K. Despite the low generated by the tariff war, a bullish monthly candle formed, indicating that the macro bullish trend still prevailed.
4) Oct 6, 2025. BTC ATH: $126K.
5) Dec 31, 2025. BTC: $87K. When the first bearish monthly candle formed, Bitcoin closed at $87K.
6) May 5, 2026. BTC: $80K. Despite the recovery from $60K to $80K, bearish monthly candles continued to form, indicating that the macro bearish trend still prevailed.
7) Jun 30, 2026. BTC: $58K. Bitcoin’s bearish trend intensified, which could suggest a potential DCA accumulation zone.
Written by Facundo Fama

• The Realized Cap is one of the most important and foundational tools in the on-chain analysis discipline.
1) Apr 19, 2024. BTC: $63K. Bitcoin’s Fourth Halving.
2) On the monthly timeframe, Realized Cap was in a bullish trend (orange), then gradually lost momentum and eventually turned bearish (blue).
3) Apr 7, 2025. BTC: $74K. Despite the low generated by the tariff war, a bullish monthly candle formed, indicating that the macro bullish trend still prevailed.
4) Dec 31, 2025. BTC: $87K. When the first bearish monthly candle formed, Bitcoin closed at $87K.
5) May 5, 2026. BTC: $80K. Despite the recovery from $60K to $80K, bearish monthly candles continued to form, indicating that the macro bearish trend still prevailed.
6) Jun 30, 2026. BTC: $58K. Bitcoin’s bearish trend intensified, which could suggest a potential DCA accumulation zone.
Written by Facundo Fama