#ПоделитесьСвоимиМыслямиОBTC Current situation: Volatility at its peak
At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $89,500–$90,000 USD, with a slight increase over the last few hours (+0.37% for the day), but an overall decline of 2–4% for the week. This is after a peak in October at $126,000, from which the price has retraced nearly 30%. The market has lost $80 billion in capitalization, and liquidations have exceeded $500 million — a classic 'risk-off' start to December. The fear and greed index is at 28 (fear zone), RSI is neutral (48), indicating consolidation rather than panic.
Why is this happening? Macro: The Fed is preparing for soft rate cuts (85% probability of 25 bps in December), but global risks (including warnings from Beijing about crypto) are weighing down. ETF flows are cooling — in the first half of the year, they pushed the price up, but now they are mixed. Corporations like MicroStrategy (with their 650k BTC) are holding, but retail is getting nervous. If the price holds $88k–$90k, this is a trend support line; below that, a test of $80k is possible.
Short forecast: December 2025 — consolidation or surprise?
Most predictions for the end of the year are modest: $89k–$95k in the base scenario, with potential up to $112k–$116k with good news (such as new ETFs or regulatory easing).