人民币汇率
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Recently, the price of buying U.S. dollars with RMB has decreased significantly, and Goldman Sachs has come out to stir the pot, stating that the U.S. dollar will depreciate against the RMB by twenty percent, causing widespread panic.
The reason why the RMB exchange rate is so strong now is quite simple: under the tremendous changes in the economic environment, the choices of macroeconomic policy tools have indeed changed.
Unlike the strategy during the U.S.-China trade war in 2018, which relied on exchange rate depreciation to support exports, China is currently directly subsidizing foreign trade through fiscal means.
This shift stems from profound changes in the fundamentals of the Chinese economy:
In 2018, China's economy maintained a strong growth momentum, and exchange rate depreciation would not trigger a massive outflow of capital. At the same time, the sudden escalation of the U.S.-China trade war meant that the depreciation of the RMB could quickly offset the impact of U.S. tariffs. As analysis pointed out, at that time, "the breakdown of U.S.-China trade negotiations, combined with a rapid deterioration of domestic and international conditions, and an intensification of divergence in monetary policies, led to a rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate."
The current economic environment is vastly different. Domestically, there is insufficient demand and deflationary pressure, necessitating a boost in investment and consumption. If the RMB were allowed to depreciate significantly at this time, it could lead to a swift withdrawal of foreign capital, exacerbating domestic liquidity tensions.
Replacing exchange rate tools are precise fiscal policy interventions. In the first half of 2025, the amount of export tax rebates reached 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, which effectively reduced enterprise costs.
The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, also reflects this change, with a clear focus on stabilizing investment and maintaining domestic demand as key tasks for next year's economic work. This indicates that the focus of economic work has indeed shifted towards stabilizing investment and ensuring domestic demand; since the exchange rate cannot be lowered, fiscal subsidies will be used to ensure exports.
#人民币汇率
$USDC
$USDT
The reason why the RMB exchange rate is so strong now is quite simple: under the tremendous changes in the economic environment, the choices of macroeconomic policy tools have indeed changed.
Unlike the strategy during the U.S.-China trade war in 2018, which relied on exchange rate depreciation to support exports, China is currently directly subsidizing foreign trade through fiscal means.
This shift stems from profound changes in the fundamentals of the Chinese economy:
In 2018, China's economy maintained a strong growth momentum, and exchange rate depreciation would not trigger a massive outflow of capital. At the same time, the sudden escalation of the U.S.-China trade war meant that the depreciation of the RMB could quickly offset the impact of U.S. tariffs. As analysis pointed out, at that time, "the breakdown of U.S.-China trade negotiations, combined with a rapid deterioration of domestic and international conditions, and an intensification of divergence in monetary policies, led to a rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate."
The current economic environment is vastly different. Domestically, there is insufficient demand and deflationary pressure, necessitating a boost in investment and consumption. If the RMB were allowed to depreciate significantly at this time, it could lead to a swift withdrawal of foreign capital, exacerbating domestic liquidity tensions.
Replacing exchange rate tools are precise fiscal policy interventions. In the first half of 2025, the amount of export tax rebates reached 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, which effectively reduced enterprise costs.
The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, also reflects this change, with a clear focus on stabilizing investment and maintaining domestic demand as key tasks for next year's economic work. This indicates that the focus of economic work has indeed shifted towards stabilizing investment and ensuring domestic demand; since the exchange rate cannot be lowered, fiscal subsidies will be used to ensure exports.
#人民币汇率
$USDC
$USDT
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The situation has changed. The bank finally fell sharply.
Yesterday, the last topic was about Haitong's vice president Jiang Chengjun, who was repatriated after fleeing for only one month. Today, I saw more information. He worked as the company's secretary for six years and was promoted to vice president in September last year, in charge of investment banking business.
There were rumors about him being suspected of occupational embezzlement at the beginning of this year. After he found out that he was under border control, he secretly prepared to escape (which is actually another way of saying smuggling out of the country). Because he couldn't get on a plane, his destination for the land route was the neighboring countries in the southwest. His destination was Laos. Usually people go there first, activate their tourist visas, and then find ways to move to other countries.
There were rumors about him being suspected of occupational embezzlement at the beginning of this year. After he found out that he was under border control, he secretly prepared to escape (which is actually another way of saying smuggling out of the country). Because he couldn't get on a plane, his destination for the land route was the neighboring countries in the southwest. His destination was Laos. Usually people go there first, activate their tourist visas, and then find ways to move to other countries.
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