币圈深度分析

When everyone is focused on the 'next hot topic', I want to clarify the 'game rules'.

You will find that every cycle brings new stories:

The last round was DeFi, NFT, GameFi;

In the meantime, there were Meme, Rollup, and various new wine in old bottles.

If you only chase 'what is the hot topic this round',
You will feel a sense of déjà vu fatigue every time.

So in the past two years, I have focused more on:

Who is setting the rules? (exchanges, regulators, institutions)

Who is providing the infrastructure? (public chains, L2, stablecoin issuers)

Who is paying for real demand? (users, developers, entities putting assets on-chain)

Looking at the timeline a bit longer,
Roles that can repeatedly appear are more worthwhile to study than projects that are fleeting.
#币圈深度分析

Emotions and Structure: Why "Panic Volume" is Worth Extra Attention

There is a K-line pattern that I pay special attention to:
Panic decline + Significant volume + Closing not making a new low.

It may imply several things:

Leverage positions are being concentrated and liquidated, causing a stampede;

Patient capital is supporting at lower levels;

Market short-term emotions are being released all at once.

Of course, this does not mean to immediately go all in and bottom-fish,
but structurally, this is an important "divergence point."

What I would do is:
Take note of this K-line,
Monitor its highs and lows for a period of time,
because it is very likely to become a reference coordinate for a stage.
#币圈深度分析

Consolidation is not "nothing happening," but rather a reshuffling of positions.

Many people see prices moving sideways and think the market is "taking a break."
However, from the perspective of position structure, consolidation often means:

The profit-taking from the last trend is gradually exiting;

New capital is repeatedly testing the cost zone within a range;

Impatient short-term traders are shaken out by the back-and-forth volatility.

If we look at the candlestick chart from a broader perspective, a period of consolidation often represents the "foundation" for the next trend.

Therefore, I am more concerned about:

Whether trading volume expands or contracts during consolidation;

Who is absorbing the buying pressure during each lower shadow;

How many times the edges of the range have been tested.

These factors are often more important than the slight fluctuations at the moment.
#币圈深度分析

In a round of market trends, there are often only three types of participants who make money.

Looking back over the past few years, I increasingly believe that:
In a complete trend, there are roughly only three types of people who really make money:

1️⃣ Early backers: Those who dare to invest a small amount when no one believes, and hold on long enough;
2️⃣ Mid-trend entrants: Those who wait for direction to be established and capture the most "boring" part of the rise in the middle;
3️⃣ Swing traders: Those who only engage in clear pullback buying points and reduce positions at emotional peaks.

Most of the losses are concentrated in:

Those who chase at the emotional peak;

Those who refuse to leave, continuously going from "profitable accounts to drawdown bottoming."

After watching the structure for a while, you'll find that—
Not everyone is doing the same thing in the "same bull market,"
You need to first think clearly about which category you belong to.
#币圈深度分析