🚨Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin failing? Grayscale's major statement: The institutional era has completely rewritten the rules of the game!
Veteran players in the crypto space are collectively in shock 🤯 Grayscale's latest report directly overturns the long-standing principle of Bitcoin—once driven by halving, the 'four-year bull and bear cycle' is now completely failing!
💡 First, understand the core logic:
Bitcoin halves every four years (block rewards are cut in half), and in the early days, the price was driven up by 'decreased supply → scarcity premium' after halving in 2012, 2016, and 2020, all of which led to explosive growth 📈. However, the circulating supply is now close to 19 million coins (total of 21 million), and the supply shock from each halving is becoming weaker, no longer supporting a complete cycle!
🏦 Institutional entry is the key turning point:
Previously, retail speculation dominated, leading to explosive market conditions driven by chasing highs and cutting losses; now 67% of the market's funds come from institutions 💰. BlackRock's ETF, public company treasury, and pension funds are aggressively buying, with institutional net inflows exceeding $44.2 billion from 2024 to 2025, directly turning Bitcoin into a 'digital gold' level reserve asset.
This round of market dynamics has long shown signs:
✅ The upward trend is more controllable: unlike the past frenzied bull runs, it is a slow bull climb, aligning more with institutional long-term holding logic.
✅ Corrections are adjustments: a 30% pullback is not a bear market signal but a regular operation of institutions washing out in a bull market.
✅ Pricing power shift: Interest rate expectations (Federal Reserve policy), U.S. crypto regulations, and institutional allocation ratios are the key factors for the current price fluctuations.
📊 Three signals that professional investors must watch:
1. The halving effect is diminishing: stop waiting for the halving market; supply-demand logic has given way to capital logic.
2. Liquidity is king: Bitcoin balances on exchanges have hit a six-year low, and institutional lock-ups have reduced the available trading chips.
3. Regulation is the core variable: U.S. stablecoin legislation and ETF compliance pathways directly determine the scale of institutional capital inflows.
Retail investors need to change their strategies! Previously, it was about guessing cycles and betting on halving; now, it’s about macro insights and following institutions, focusing on RWA tokenization and compliant custody in these institutional tracks 🌍 Bitcoin is no longer a speculative toy for retail investors; it has become a financial infrastructure laid out by Wall Street ~
#灰度GBTC资金流出趋势结束了吗? $XRP