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【Non-Farm Payrolls Show Mixed Signals: Unemployment Rate Jumps to 4.6%, Market Bets on Early Rate Cuts?】

Last night's non-farm data has once again left the market in a quandary.

📊 Key Data Overview:

· New Jobs: November +64,000, above the expected 50,000 (but October was significantly revised down to -105,000)
· Unemployment Rate: Rises to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021
· Wage Growth: Year-on-year 3.5%, month-on-month 0.1%, both below expectations, slowing to cyclical lows
· Retail Sales: Zero growth in October, consumer momentum seems to weaken

After the data release, the market's expectation of a rate cut in January next year jumped from 22% to 31%, with an expectation of two rate cuts throughout 2026. The dollar briefly fell below 98, gold surged above $4310, and non-US currencies collectively rebounded.

🤔 Behind the data, the signals are complex:

· Rising labor participation rate, a rising unemployment rate may not be entirely bad
· The private sector's average monthly increase over the past six months is 44,000, the slowest growth since the pandemic
· ADP weekly data shows hiring rebounded in late November, but it is still preliminary data

🎙️ Perspectives from Various Parties:

· Former Federal Reserve economist Sam: Cautions to view the November unemployment rate cautiously, as the government has warned that the data may have discrepancies
· White House economic advisor: Describes the rise in the unemployment rate as "statistically insignificant," advising against overinterpretation
· “Fed Mouthpiece” Timiraos: Points out that hiring speed has clearly slowed, but Powell previously believed the unemployment rate might only rise by 0.1-0.2 percentage points
· CNBC Commentary: The labor market remains in a “low hiring, low layoff” state, with the Fed struggling to balance between fighting inflation and preventing recession

🚦 What’s Next?
Strategists point out that slowing wage growth gives the Fed room to take action, but December's non-farm and retail data will be crucial for validation. Before this, long-term interest rates may continue to fluctuate within a range.

The market is pricing in “recession worries” and “rate cut expectations.” Are you more concerned about the unemployment rate alarm or the policy easing signals brought by slowing wages?

#NonFarmData #UnemploymentRate #FedRateCut #GoldRebound #DollarTrend #经济软着陆