美国零售数据
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The dollar holds life and death, interest rate cuts determine the universe $BTC
The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, currently shows a high negative correlation with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields.
In simple terms: Strong data → Expectations for interest rate hikes increase / Expectations for interest rate cuts are delayed → The dollar strengthens, U.S. Treasury yields rise → Risk assets come under pressure and decline.
Weak data → Expectations for interest rate hikes decrease / Expectations for interest rate cuts are brought forward → The dollar weakens, U.S. Treasury yields fall → Risk assets receive support and rise.
Retail data is the 'main dish', and the results will directly affect the market's judgment on the September FOMC meeting and the interest rate cut path for the entire year. This is tonight's 'big data', must keep a close watch!
What do you think about tonight's market?
#美国零售数据
The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, currently shows a high negative correlation with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields.
In simple terms: Strong data → Expectations for interest rate hikes increase / Expectations for interest rate cuts are delayed → The dollar strengthens, U.S. Treasury yields rise → Risk assets come under pressure and decline.
Weak data → Expectations for interest rate hikes decrease / Expectations for interest rate cuts are brought forward → The dollar weakens, U.S. Treasury yields fall → Risk assets receive support and rise.
Retail data is the 'main dish', and the results will directly affect the market's judgment on the September FOMC meeting and the interest rate cut path for the entire year. This is tonight's 'big data', must keep a close watch!
What do you think about tonight's market?
#美国零售数据
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Tonight at 9:30 PM, the U.S. economic data will be released in a series of three, and the market is in for a rollercoaster ride.
Everyone, fasten your seatbelts, as these three pieces of data could directly determine the outlook for U.S. stocks tonight, and even influence the Federal Reserve's next moves.
The first to be announced is the September retail sales month-on-month rate, with the market expecting a growth of 0.6%, which is a bit better than last month's 0.4%. In simple terms, this reflects how generous American consumers are in their spending, directly indicating the heat of the consumer market.
If the actual data exceeds expectations significantly, inflation pressure will be back, and the Federal Reserve may have to delay interest rate cuts further.
Next up is the September PPI data, which is the Producer Price Index, viewed on both annual and monthly rates. The annual rate is expected to be 2.6%, slightly down from the previous value of 2.7%, while the monthly rate is expected to decline by 0.1%, with the previous value having increased by 0.3%.
PPI can be seen as a leading indicator for CPI, measuring changes in factory gate prices. If factory prices do not increase or even start to drop, the inflation pressure transmitted to consumers will naturally be less. #Crypto
Therefore, if tonight's PPI data, especially the monthly rate, truly turns negative as expected, the market's concerns about inflation may ease a bit.
To summarize the key points: the retail sales data will indicate the strength of consumer resilience, while the PPI data will show whether inflation pressure is easing.
If retail data is significantly stronger than expected, but PPI does not drop much, the combination of "high inflation + strong economy" may make the market worry again that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer time, which is not good news for risk assets. #Blockchain##Blockchain[Super Topic]#
Conversely, if retail data is average and PPI shows a clear cooling, then the script of "moderate economy + falling inflation" may rekindle the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.
In short, at 9:30 PM tonight, keep a close eye on the screen, as even minor changes in these numbers can stir up a storm in the market.
#美国零售数据 #比特币波动性 #美联储重启降息步伐
Everyone, fasten your seatbelts, as these three pieces of data could directly determine the outlook for U.S. stocks tonight, and even influence the Federal Reserve's next moves.
The first to be announced is the September retail sales month-on-month rate, with the market expecting a growth of 0.6%, which is a bit better than last month's 0.4%. In simple terms, this reflects how generous American consumers are in their spending, directly indicating the heat of the consumer market.
If the actual data exceeds expectations significantly, inflation pressure will be back, and the Federal Reserve may have to delay interest rate cuts further.
Next up is the September PPI data, which is the Producer Price Index, viewed on both annual and monthly rates. The annual rate is expected to be 2.6%, slightly down from the previous value of 2.7%, while the monthly rate is expected to decline by 0.1%, with the previous value having increased by 0.3%.
PPI can be seen as a leading indicator for CPI, measuring changes in factory gate prices. If factory prices do not increase or even start to drop, the inflation pressure transmitted to consumers will naturally be less. #Crypto
Therefore, if tonight's PPI data, especially the monthly rate, truly turns negative as expected, the market's concerns about inflation may ease a bit.
To summarize the key points: the retail sales data will indicate the strength of consumer resilience, while the PPI data will show whether inflation pressure is easing.
If retail data is significantly stronger than expected, but PPI does not drop much, the combination of "high inflation + strong economy" may make the market worry again that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer time, which is not good news for risk assets. #Blockchain##Blockchain[Super Topic]#
Conversely, if retail data is average and PPI shows a clear cooling, then the script of "moderate economy + falling inflation" may rekindle the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.
In short, at 9:30 PM tonight, keep a close eye on the screen, as even minor changes in these numbers can stir up a storm in the market.
#美国零售数据 #比特币波动性 #美联储重启降息步伐
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