BTC's recent plunge is essentially a chain reaction triggered by the cooling of macro sentiment and a leveraged market sell-off. The Federal Reserve suddenly released a hawkish tone, leading the market to reprice interest rate paths, putting pressure on risk assets and clearly retracting capital preferences, with BTC being the first to be sold off at high levels. A large number of high-leverage long positions accumulated around the vicinity of $100,000, and once broken, a series of forced liquidations snowballed, instantly draining liquidity and driving prices down to below $96,000. After the critical psychological level was lost, sentiment shifted from optimism to panic, which in turn prompted more selling, forming a typical triad of 'technical level breakdown + capital sell-off + emotional collapse'.
On-chain and funding signals are also indicating: ETF net outflows, large wallets reducing positions in the short term, and an increase in net inflows of BTC to exchanges, suggesting an increase in selling pressure; the fear index has sharply declined, indicating the market is collectively hitting the brakes. However, these are not signs of a trend reversal but rather a strong clearing after overheating at high levels, representing an 'essential option' in the bull market process. For trend traders, this means that short-term volatility will increase, but the mid-term logic remains intact; for long-term holders, such sharp declines are often a prelude to emotional clearing and market rebuilding of buying interest.
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