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$AVAX at Key Demand Zone — Accumulation Brewing Despite Macro Pressure
Bias: Cautiously Bullish (High-risk, high-reward zone)
Market Structure:
AVAX remains in a broader downtrend, trading near multi-month lows after a strong sell-off from the 13.7–14.0 supply zone. On the 1H structure, price is forming a base near demand, showing signs of stabilization rather than continuation selling. A shift to higher highs on lower timeframes would be the first bullish confirmation.
Key Levels:
Support: 12.00 → 11.85 (major demand / recent swing low)
Resistance: 12.60 → 13.00 (intraday supply), then 13.75–14.00 (major HTF supply)
Volume & Flow:
Volume has cooled after the impulse drop, suggesting selling pressure is weakening. Order book shows a slight bid dominance, hinting at quiet accumulation near lows. However, ongoing daily token unlocks (~1.6M AVAX) remain a consistent supply overhang.
Fundamental Flow Check:
Bullish: ETF discussions, explosive +1733% active address growth, strong RWA & DeFi usage, low fees, fast finality.
Bearish: Declining developer activity (-23.8% MoM), broader market headwinds, price below key long-term MAs.
Outlook:
As long as AVAX holds above the 11.85–12.00 base, range expansion to 12.8–13.2 is possible on confirmation. A clean breakdown below 11.85 would invalidate the bullish case and open deeper downside. This is a spot accumulation zone, not a chase.
Trader’s Note: Patience > prediction. Let structure flip before sizing up.
#AVAX #Avalanche #CryptoAnalysis