$BTC Bitcoin is walking a tightrope. Price is hovering around $90,399, sitting right under a 6-week downtrend and the entire market is waiting for just one thing:
The FOMCās 25bps rate cut this Wednesday.
A confirmed cut could snap Bitcoin out of its slump instantlyā¦
But thereās a hidden challenge that most traders ignore:
Short-Term Holders Are Increasing Their Grip
The STH-to-LTH Supply Ratio just climbed from 18.3% 18.5%, breaking above the 17.6% upper band.
This subtle shift changes everything.
More STHs =
⢠Higher speculative activity
⢠Faster liquidity
⢠But also sharper volatility
⢠Profit-taking pressure near key levels
Historically, these fast-moving holders cap rallies by selling early, especially if BTC pumps after macro news.
Profitability Shows the Market Is Still Cautious
BTCās Percent Supply in Profit ticked up from 66.5% 67.3% positive, but nowhere near the 98%+ euphoria zone seen in strong bull markets.
This is accumulation territory.
Smart money is waiting. Watching. Preparing for macro confirmation before committing fully.
Key Levels to Watch
Right now BTC is trying to flip $90,400 into support the first crucial sign of reversal.
If the FOMC sparks risk-on momentum:
Bounce from $90,400 ā Retest $95,000
Break $95K Clear runway to $100,000
The prediction becomes reality
But if STHs dump into strength:
Rejection at $95K
Or failure to break the downtrend
BTC slides back toward $86,822, invalidating the bullish setup.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin is coiled.
The macro trigger is ready.
The path to $100K is open but short-term holders decide whether the rally survives or dies early.
Are you positioned for both outcomes?
$BTC #bitcoin #fomc #CryptoMarket #BinanceSquare