bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been falling non-stop since its October All Time High and all the signs continue to be there that we have already entered the new Bear Cycle.
We've been sharing extensive analyses with you since September on the markers of the Bear Cycle and the latest indicator that adds to the data set is the STOCH on the 3W time-frame.
As you can see, it has entered a level where all previous three Bear Cycles completed roughly their 1st Phase and rebounded on a dead-cat-bounce. On average it i roughly after every three 3W candles that this happens, this time it was after two, the previous two Bear Cycles after three and the one before (longest) after six.
Also this is the fastest it's reached the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) on a Bear Cycle correction and most likely it will be the same for its 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 3W MA100 (green trend-line).
This is another sign that shows how every Cycle gets less and less aggressive. The first Bear Cycle dropped by roughly -94%, the second by -87%, the third by -84% and the fourth (last) by 77%. This decelerating rate reveals BTC's asymptotic behavior as more and more mass adoption kicks in with every passing Cycle. As the market stabilizes, becomes larger and more widespread, the volatility becomes lower and lower. This is a sign of maturity.
So what does this potentially mean for us and this Bear Cycle? Well that the drop will most likely be contained at -70% maximum (-7% less than the previous Cycle), a rate that may be as low as -60% (just after contacting the 3W MA100) if ETF buying interest returns or other fundamental catalysts (bitcoin treasuries etc?) accelerate adoption. So this potential range translates into a possible buy zone of $50000 - $38000 towards the end of 2026 but that's a topic we've analyzed extensively on other studies.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals $BTC

ArtForz.
Discover the forgotten story of this mysterious pioneer, who single-handedly controlled 25% of the Bitcoin network in 2010.

When Bitcoin was worth almost nothing
In 2010, Bitcoin was still extremely marginal.
Satoshi Nakamoto’s whitepaper was just over a year old, and #BTC was worth barely $0.01.
Mining difficulty was ridiculously low, and the block reward was still 50 BTC per block.
The first users were cypherpunks, libertarians, and nerds, mining with… their CPU.
At the time, a simple desktop PC was enough to mine blocks.
It was in this setting that a new username appeared on Bitcointalk in July 2010: ArtForz.
No one knew it yet, but that name would become a legend.

A broke engineer with a PayPal problem
Before Bitcoin, ArtForz was far from what you’d call a financial tycoon.
He was an electrical engineer, comfortable with hardware, circuits, and graphics cards.
He loved computers, video games, and complex systems.
To make ends meet, he “farmed” virtual currencies in video games and then sold them for real money.
Until the day PayPal froze his account because of these activities.
The message hit hard: the traditional financial system can cut off your access to money… with a single click.
At the same time, a new concept was circulating on certain internet forums:
a currency that no company, no bank, no platform could censor Bitcoin.
ArtForz immediately grasped the power of the idea, and above all, he quickly saw that Bitcoin could be mined.

From a laptop to the “ArtFarm”
In 2010, it was still possible to mine on a laptop or a simple desktop computer.
Early enthusiasts discovered that GPUs (graphics cards) were far more efficient than CPUs for calculating the hashes required by Proof of Work.
Officially, Satoshi Nakamoto hoped for a “gentleman’s agreement” to avoid triggering a hardware arms race too quickly, in order not to kill network decentralization.
But in July 2010, ArtForz decided to shift into high gear and began mining with GPUs.
Very quickly, he built what is considered one of the world’s very first GPU mining farms: the “ArtFarm.”
In just one month, ArtForz already controlled around 10% of the Bitcoin network’s total computing power.
By the end of 2010, his farm reached as much as 25% of the total network hashrate.
ArtForz stacked dozens of GPUs in cardboard boxes to keep them more or less ventilated, in a kind of handcrafted chaos halfway between a laboratory and a geek’s attic.
One day, he reported on Bitcointalk that he had mined 1,700 BTC in 6 days.

409,650 Bitcoin: a treasure mined in indifference
With his ArtFarm, ArtForz mined block after block.
Cross-checked estimates suggest a total of around 409,650 BTC mined by ArtForz during this period an astronomical amount.
ArtForz sold a large portion of his BTC as the price began to rise, but according to several accounts, he still kept around 50,000 BTC.

The bug that could have killed Bitcoin
ArtForz was not just an opportunistic miner he was also a highly skilled programmer and a security expert.
In July 2010, he discovered what would later be described as one of the most dangerous bugs in Bitcoin’s history: a flaw in the way transaction scripts were validated, related to what would be called the OP_RETURN bug.
The vulnerability could have allowed someone to spend BTC from any wallet without owning the private keys.
ArtForz could have exploited it, but instead he chose to report the issue directly to Satoshi Nakamoto and the developers.
The problem was fixed urgently.
Authors such as Nathaniel Popper, in Digital Gold, emphasize this moment: the fact that ArtForz did not use the exploit to enrich himself is presented as proof that the system’s incentives were already working.
His own coins would have become worthless if the protocol had lost all credibility.
That day, an anonymous miner very likely saved #bitcoin .

The hardware arms race: FPGA, ASIC, and the fall of the ArtFarm
But ArtForz’s dominance did not last forever.
As Bitcoin gained popularity, new miners wanted their share of the action.
Mining moved from CPU to GPU, then to FPGA (reprogrammable circuits), and finally to ASICs (specialized chips designed for crypto mining).
ASICs quickly made desktop PCs obsolete, and GPUs almost useless for mining Bitcoin.
ArtForz tried to survive by designing his own custom mining chips, which temporarily allowed him to climb back to around 5% of the network hashrate.
But by August 2011, despite his efforts, ArtForz’s share fell below 1% of the total hashrate.
He could no longer compete with massive farms and warehouses filled with metal racks and industrial fans.

The Scrypt controversy
Faced with this growing centralization, ArtForz refused to give up.
If hardware was becoming too powerful, then perhaps the solution was to change… the algorithm itself.
He turned to Scrypt, a cryptographic function designed in 2009 by Colin Percival to secure file backups.
In 2011, ArtForz implemented Scrypt in a new cryptocurrency: Tenebrix, often cited as the first crypto to use Scrypt as its proof-of-work algorithm.
Litecoin, launched in October 2011, also adopted Scrypt for its Proof of Work.
In the Litecoin whitepaper, the developers wrote plainly:
“We humbly offer our great thanks to ArtForz for the implementation.”
But the story doesn’t end there. A controversy erupted over the possible use of Scrypt by ArtForz to mine 150 times faster with GPUs.
Part of the community began to suspect that ArtForz had kept a hidden technical advantage for himself.
ArtForz denied ever intending to deceive anyone.

The disappearance
After 2012, traces of ArtForz became rare.
His username appeared on forums related to video game mods, notably for Minecraft and Kerbal Space Program.
But no more posts on Bitcointalk.
ArtForz went silent.
Some believe he still holds 50,000 BTC in a cold wallet…
Others think he sold everything or lost it all…
No one really knows.

But who was ArtForz, really?
Very little is known about him.
A solitary engineer.
A coder brilliant enough to spot a fatal bug and ethical enough not to exploit it.
A pioneer who accumulated 409,650 $BTC at a time when no one was yet watching Bitcoin price charts.
And then… complete silence.
Shortly after this controversy, he almost completely stopped posting on Bitcointalk.

Listen, I need to share something important with you that's been keeping me up at night. We might be heading toward another significant market downturn in just a few days, and I want you to be prepared – not scared, but ready.

The Pattern Nobody's Talking About
I've been watching something fascinating unfold in the crypto markets, and it all connects back to what's happening in Japan right now.
Here's the situation: Japan's central bank (the Bank of Japan, or BOJ) is getting ready for another meeting on December 18-19. Based on everything I'm seeing, they're likely going to raise interest rates again. And if history repeats itself – which it often does – we could be in for a wild ride.

Why Should You Care About Japan's Interest Rates?
Great question. Let me break this down in simple terms.
For decades, Japan kept their interest rates extremely low – basically making money dirt cheap to borrow. Smart investors figured out they could borrow Japanese yen at almost no cost and invest that money in higher-return assets like stocks, real estate, and yes, cryptocurrencies. This strategy has a fancy name: the yen carry trade.
But here's where things get interesting (and scary).
When Japan raises interest rates, borrowing yen suddenly becomes expensive. Those same investors who borrowed cheap money now have to pay more. Many of them are forced to sell their investments just to pay back their loans.
And when everyone starts selling at once? Markets crash.
The Evidence Is Right There in the Charts
I'm not just speculating here. Look at what happened before:
July 31, 2024: Japan raised rates to 0.25%. Within just 8 days, Bitcoin plummeted 26% – dropping from $68,287 down to $49,217.
January 24, 2025: Another rate hike to 0.50%. Bitcoin fell approximately 25% – sliding from $109,000 to around $75,000 over the next 20 days.
See the pattern? Every time Japan tightens monetary policy, crypto takes a beating shortly after.

What Could Happen This December
If the BOJ raises rates again around December 19, we might see:
A sharp, sudden drop in cryptocurrency pricesRapid selling across stock marketsExtreme volatility that catches people off guardForced liquidations as leveraged positions get wiped outPossible rate increase to 0.75% or higher
This won't be a slow decline. These moves happen fast and hit hard.

But Here's The Silver Lining (And Why I'm Actually Optimistic)
Now, before you panic and sell everything, let me tell you why this could actually be the setup for something incredible.
Japan Can't Keep This Up
Japan's economy is struggling. Their latest GDP numbers came in at -0.6% (economists expected -0.4%). That's contraction, not growth.
Because their economy is weak, Japan simply can't keep raising rates aggressively. They'll have to stop or even reverse course eventually.
Plus, the Japanese government just announced a massive ¥17 trillion stimulus package. That's real money flowing into their system to support growth and stabilize markets.
The Bigger Global Picture Changes Everything
Here's what most people are missing: Japan is the exception, not the rule.
The United States is moving toward easier monetary policyChina is actively loosening conditionsCanada is shifting toward accommodationCentral banks worldwide are adding liquidity
Once we get through this potential December shake-out, the conditions for a powerful rally could align perfectly.

Why This Could Be The Final Bottom
Think about what happens after these rapid sell-offs:
Weak hands get shaken out – People who invested with borrowed money or can't handle volatility exit completelySelling pressure exhausts itself – Eventually, there's nobody left who wants to sell at those pricesA strong base forms – The people still holding are believers, not speculatorsNew money starts flowing in – As global liquidity increases, capital seeks returns
This is exactly how bottoms form. They're violent, scary, and shake out everyone who isn't committed.

What Should You Do?
I'm not a financial advisor, so I can't tell you what to do with your money. But here's how I'm thinking about this:
Short-term (December 2025): Expect volatility. If you're overextended or using leverage, this could hurt. Consider reducing risk if a 20-30% drop would cause you serious problems.
Medium-term (Early 2026): After the dust settles, we could see stabilization and base-building. This might be your accumulation opportunity.
Long-term (2026 and beyond): With global liquidity increasing and the shake-out complete, conditions could be perfect for a sustained bull market.

The Bottom Line
A December crash would be painful in the moment, but it might just be the reset we need before the next major rally.
Markets don't move in straight lines. Sometimes you need to go down before you can go up higher.
Stay informed, manage your risk, and don't let short-term volatility distract you from the bigger picture.
We've seen this movie before. Those who panic-sold in July 2024 at $49,000 watched Bitcoin climb back to $109,000 by January 2025. Don't be that person.
What do you think? Are you prepared for potential December volatility? Drop your thoughts below.
#bitcoin #crypto #BTC

$BTC has now closed below the rising trendline on H4, confirming a structure break, not just a wick. This marks the end of the mid-term uptrend and signals the start of a larger corrective phase.
Key points:
Higher-low structure is brokenFormer support at $88K–$89K has flipped into resistanceBreakdown came with strong volume, while bounces show weak demand
Likely path forward:
A technical bounce toward $88.5K–$90K (sell-the-rally zone)Continuation lower toward $84K–$85K, potentially $81K–$82K if selling pressure persists
This is no longer a “dip to buy.” Until BTC reclaims the trendline and holds above it, the bias remains corrective / bearish.
In trading, not trading is better than trading against the trend.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrumpTariffs $ETH

Some $200M wiped out in 1 hour! Bitcoin sees massive liquidation as leveraged positions implode. Analysts call it "pure manipulation." Chaos for traders, but fundamentals intact.
Context in a Nutshell
Bitcoin's price plunged sharply, liquidating $200 million in leveraged positions in just 60 minutes. Analysts point to market manipulation, with coordinated selling triggering cascading liquidations across exchanges. While the drama captured headlines, the network and on-chain fundamentals remained intact, underscoring the disconnect between short-term trading volatility and long-term Bitcoin resilience.
What You Should Know
Bitcoin experienced a rapid sell-off, liquidating $200 million in leveraged positions within a single hour.Analysts describe the move as pure market manipulation, triggered by coordinated selling and amplified by margin liquidations.The event underscores how highly leveraged trading can amplify $BTC volatility, especially during periods of thin liquidity.Despite the chaos, on-chain fundamentals for Bitcoin remain unchanged, reflecting that this was largely a short-term trading phenomenon, not a structural market crash.
Why Does This Matter?
The event demonstrates how leveraged positions can intensify volatility, creating short-term panic even when the broader market structure remains sound. Traders, funds, and investors should recognize that BTC price swings can be manipulated during low-liquidity windows, but these movements do not necessarily signal a fundamental shift.
In crypto, sudden $200 million liquidations may rattle nerves, but Bitcoin's architecture endures, reminding us that short-term chaos often disguises long-term stability.
#bitcoin #crypto #liquidation

Listen up, because what's happening with Bitcoin right now could determine where we're headed for the next few weeks—maybe even months.
The Setup That Has Traders on Edge
If you've been watching the charts lately, you've probably noticed something interesting developing. Bitcoin keeps bumping into those EMA ribbons (those colorful lines that track moving averages), and each time it's been pushed back down. Twice now, the price has tried to break through and failed.
But here's where it gets interesting: we're testing that same resistance zone again.
The Level That Changes Everything: $87,700
Right now, there's one price point that matters more than anything else: $87,700.
Think of it as Bitcoin's moment of truth. This isn't just another support level—it's the line in the sand that separates two completely different scenarios.
Scenario 1: The Breakout Path
If Bitcoin manages to hold above $87,700 and push through those EMA ribbons, we could be looking at a powerful move upward. When price finally breaks through resistance it's tested multiple times, the momentum can be explosive. Bulls would take control, and we might see Bitcoin climbing toward those $100K+ levels that everyone's been talking about.
Scenario 2: The Correction Route
On the flip side, if we lose that $87,700 support level, things could get uncomfortable fast. We're talking about a potential deep correction that could shake out weak hands and send the price significantly lower. Those who've been holding through the recent consolidation might face some serious paper losses.
Why This Moment Feels Different
Here's what makes this particular setup so compelling: the momentum is tightening like a coiled spring. When you see price action compressing against major resistance like this, with volume patterns shifting and indicators converging, something big usually follows.
The technical picture is actually remarkably clean right now. No messy patterns, no mixed signals—just a straightforward test of a critical level with two clear outcomes.
What Smart Traders Are Doing Right Now
The reality is that nobody knows for certain which way this breaks. Anyone who tells you they know is either lying or about to learn an expensive lesson. What we do know is this:
The risk is defined: You know exactly where support sitsThe reward potential is clear: Both scenarios offer significant movesThe setup is mature: We've tested this area enough times that a decisive move is likely coming soon
Whether you're positioned long, short, or sitting in cash, the key is having a plan for both scenarios. Know where you'll add to positions, where you'll take profits, and most importantly, where you'll cut losses if you're wrong.
The Bigger Picture
This isn't just about one support level. Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, building energy for the next major move. These EMA ribbons have acted as a ceiling, containing price action and creating pressure. When that pressure releases, the move tends to be substantial.
For those watching from the sidelines, this could be the setup you've been waiting for—a clear technical picture with defined risk and reward. For those already in positions, this is where discipline matters most.
Final Thoughts
Markets don't care about what we want or what we think should happen. They simply respond to buying and selling pressure, accumulation and distribution, fear and greed.
Right now, Bitcoin is at one of those pivotal moments where the next move could set the tone for weeks to come. The $87,700 level isn't just a number on a chart—it's the battleground where bulls and bears are fighting for control.
Whatever happens next, one thing's certain: volatility is coming. Make sure you're prepared for it.
Stay sharp out there, and remember—the best trades are the ones you plan for, not the ones you hope for.

What do you think? Are we about to break out or break down? Drop your thoughts below.
#bitcoin #BTC #cryptotrading #BitcoinAnalysis

Bitcoin is once again showing a strange split personality: while the world sleeps, it holds confidently near the $90,000 mark, but as soon as U.S. markets open, the decline begins. On Monday, the crypto market continued this troubling pattern: BTC dropped to $86,000 during morning U.S. trading, while crypto company and miner stocks saw even steeper declines.
This phenomenon has already earned the unofficial nickname "The U.S. Trading Session Curse." Data from Bespoke Investment illustrates it with startling clarity: since the launch of spot BTC ETFs in January 2024, buying the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) at the close and selling at the next open would have yielded a +222% return. In contrast, trading only during U.S. market hours would have resulted in a loss of -40.5%.
What's Behind This Imbalance?
At first glance, this suggests weak daytime demand from U.S. institutional investors. However, analysts see a more complex mechanism:
ETF Influence: A significant portion of capital inflow into BTC now occurs through exchange-traded funds. Their share creation/redemption and arbitrage operations can create selling pressure during the day, which subsides after hours.Macro Anxiety: The crypto market, still perceived as a high-risk asset, is sensitive to intraday fluctuations in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Even their minor decline on Monday amplified selling in the crypto sector.Sector Correction: Following recent powerful rallies driven by AI hype and data-center infrastructure trends, mining stocks (CleanSpark, Hut 8) and crypto platforms (Coinbase, MicroStrategy) are seeing a natural profit-taking. Their 5-10% drop on Monday noticeably exceeded Bitcoin's own decline.
Looking Ahead: A Week of Central Bank Decisions
This week, the focus will shift to macroeconomics, which could increase volatility:
U.S. Employment Data: Reports for October and November will help the market assess whether the Fed can begin cutting rates as early as early 2026.Central Bank Decisions: Policy tightening is expected from the Bank of Japan, along with statements from the ECB and the Bank of England. Any surprises could cause turbulence across all risky markets, including crypto.
Discussion Question:
Do you think the "U.S. session curse" is a temporary artifact of the ETF launch that will smooth out over time, or is it a new permanent market dynamic that investors will have to adapt to?
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #etf