Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto (@Steph_iscrypto) has sparked fresh debate after highlighting a recurring technical pattern that has defined XRP’s major market cycles for nearly a decade.
According to his analysis, XRP’s interaction with the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) has consistently determined whether the asset enters a bullish continuation or a prolonged bearish phase.
“When price is below the 50-week SMA, the long-term trend turns bearish and the moving average becomes resistance,” Steph noted.
His chart, spanning 2015 to 2026, shows that XRP has repeatedly suffered deep drawdowns whenever it failed to reclaim this level after a breakdown.
XRP Cycles and the 50-Week SMA
Historical data suggests the 50-week SMA acts as a cycle pivot for XRP:
2015 Cycle: XRP plunged ~75% after losing the SMA
2018 Cycle: A breakdown led to an ~85.7% decline
2022 Cycle: Price dropped ~68.6% following a failed retest
In each case, XRP briefly attempted to reclaim the 50-week SMA — only to be rejected, triggering extended downside.
This repeated behavior has made the indicator a core reference point for long-term XRP trend analysis.
Recent Price Action Raises Concerns
XRP saw a sharp sell-off this weekend, sliding from above $2.00 to around $1.84, before stabilizing slightly. At the time of writing, XRP is trading near $1.89.
Notably, the recent rally in early January brought XRP close to the 50-week SMA — but price failed to reclaim it, mirroring conditions seen in previous bearish cycles.
On Steph’s chart, each retest of the SMA (marked by a white trend line) resulted in rejection, followed by sustained downside pressure. Analysts view this pattern as a reliable signal of trend weakness when confirmed.
Where Could XRP Go Next?
Using historical cycles as a framework — not a prediction — analysts outline two key downside scenarios:
~68% decline: Targets XRP near $0.59, last seen in late 2024
~85% decline: Puts XRP as low as $0.27, a level not visited since early 2021
These levels would align with prior post-SMA rejection phases, should XRP continue to trade below this critical moving average.
Key Takeaway
Steph Is Crypto emphasizes that the 50-week SMA remains the defining line for XRP’s macro structure. Across multiple cycles, the sequence has been clear:
Break below → Fail to reclaim → Extended decline
If XRP does not recover the 50-week SMA soon, history suggests the market could be entering another corrective phase. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future outcomes, the consistency of this pattern makes the current level a make-or-break zone for XRP’s next major move.
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