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The 70% Rule That Haunts BTC
For over a decade, the playbook for $BTC bear cycles has been brutally consistent. We are talking about an average maximum pain tolerance of a 70% drawdown. This is the iron law of crypto cycles.
Many are watching the charts now, wondering if the unprecedented institutional adoption and improved liquidity mean the cycle bottom is shallower than historical norms. The maturity of the asset class may have finally buffered the extreme volatility that defined its first decade. We are in uncharted territory where history provides a strong warning, but fundamentals suggest resilience. The market must respect the 70% threshold for $BTC until proven otherwise.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
#BTCCycle #MacroAnalysis #CryptoHistory #MarketStructure
🔮
For over a decade, the playbook for $BTC bear cycles has been brutally consistent. We are talking about an average maximum pain tolerance of a 70% drawdown. This is the iron law of crypto cycles.
Many are watching the charts now, wondering if the unprecedented institutional adoption and improved liquidity mean the cycle bottom is shallower than historical norms. The maturity of the asset class may have finally buffered the extreme volatility that defined its first decade. We are in uncharted territory where history provides a strong warning, but fundamentals suggest resilience. The market must respect the 70% threshold for $BTC until proven otherwise.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
#BTCCycle #MacroAnalysis #CryptoHistory #MarketStructure
🔮
The BTC Four-Year Cycle Just Died
Fundstrat's Tom Lee is not whispering—he is shouting that the crypto market has already bottomed. This isn't just a bullish sentiment; it's a structural call implying that the major fear phase is officially over.
But the most critical insight right now is his short-term forecast. Lee suggests the next eight weeks will completely decouple $BTC from its historical four-year cycle narrative. We are entering a unique, non-cyclical phase driven by new institutional flows and global liquidity shifts.
For investors used to timing the market based solely on halving events, this means the old roadmap is now obsolete. The market dynamics are evolving faster than ever, and those waiting for the classic deep retest might miss the immediate move. Pay attention to $ETH closely as capital flows shift into high-beta assets confirming this new trend.
This is not financial advice.
#CryptoAnalysis #BTCCycle #Fundstrat #MarketBottom #DigitalAssets 🚀
Fundstrat's Tom Lee is not whispering—he is shouting that the crypto market has already bottomed. This isn't just a bullish sentiment; it's a structural call implying that the major fear phase is officially over.
But the most critical insight right now is his short-term forecast. Lee suggests the next eight weeks will completely decouple $BTC from its historical four-year cycle narrative. We are entering a unique, non-cyclical phase driven by new institutional flows and global liquidity shifts.
For investors used to timing the market based solely on halving events, this means the old roadmap is now obsolete. The market dynamics are evolving faster than ever, and those waiting for the classic deep retest might miss the immediate move. Pay attention to $ETH closely as capital flows shift into high-beta assets confirming this new trend.
This is not financial advice.
#CryptoAnalysis #BTCCycle #Fundstrat #MarketBottom #DigitalAssets 🚀
THE INSTITUTIONAL LIQUIDATION PHASE HAS BEGUN.
The stablecoin premium is vanishing, a sign of deep systemic pressure. We are seeing major stablecoin prices erode relative to fiat pegs, indicating extreme liquidity stress. The bear market is evolving past the retail wipeout. The small fish are gone. We are now entering the most brutal stage: the institutional slaughter. When high-yield strategies start delivering less than 1% (below even traditional bank savings), the last leveraged positions are forced to unwind. This is capitulation, not fear. For the average investor, the strategy remains simple and non-emotional. Tune out the noise, set up your DCA into $BTC, and prepare to watch the titans fall. This is how cycles reset.
This is not financial advice.
#MacroCrypto #BearMarket #BTCCycle #DCA
🧠
The stablecoin premium is vanishing, a sign of deep systemic pressure. We are seeing major stablecoin prices erode relative to fiat pegs, indicating extreme liquidity stress. The bear market is evolving past the retail wipeout. The small fish are gone. We are now entering the most brutal stage: the institutional slaughter. When high-yield strategies start delivering less than 1% (below even traditional bank savings), the last leveraged positions are forced to unwind. This is capitulation, not fear. For the average investor, the strategy remains simple and non-emotional. Tune out the noise, set up your DCA into $BTC, and prepare to watch the titans fall. This is how cycles reset.
This is not financial advice.
#MacroCrypto #BearMarket #BTCCycle #DCA
🧠
BTC Must Hit 40K Before The Real Rally Starts
The market is showing a structural imperative for a deep shakeout. Elite analysis points to a potential $BTC correction targeting the $40,000 zone. This is not a collapse; it is the necessary, violent liquidation event required to clear the path for the next major cycle.
This reset is critical. The market cannot sustain a prolonged rally toward the projected 2026 All-Time High without first purging weak hands and resetting leverage. Strategic investors view such a dip as accumulation fuel, not a reason for panic. While $BTC consolidates its foundation, keep a sharp eye on $ETH, which often provides clues regarding capital rotation strength immediately following major market resets. The long game demands patience and precision, especially when the crowd is panicking.
This is not financial advice. Consult a professional advisor.
#CryptoAnalyst #BTCCycle #MacroAnalysis #MarketStructure #DigitalAssets 🧠
The market is showing a structural imperative for a deep shakeout. Elite analysis points to a potential $BTC correction targeting the $40,000 zone. This is not a collapse; it is the necessary, violent liquidation event required to clear the path for the next major cycle.
This reset is critical. The market cannot sustain a prolonged rally toward the projected 2026 All-Time High without first purging weak hands and resetting leverage. Strategic investors view such a dip as accumulation fuel, not a reason for panic. While $BTC consolidates its foundation, keep a sharp eye on $ETH, which often provides clues regarding capital rotation strength immediately following major market resets. The long game demands patience and precision, especially when the crowd is panicking.
This is not financial advice. Consult a professional advisor.
#CryptoAnalyst #BTCCycle #MacroAnalysis #MarketStructure #DigitalAssets 🧠
2026 Debt Shock: The US Treasury Crash That Triggers The Hard-Asset Supercycle
We are facing a silent convergence of three critical global fault lines that point directly to a sovereign bond shock in 2026. This is not a typical recession; this is a systemic event driven by US Treasury funding stress, the unwinding of the Japan carry trade system, and overleveraged Asian credit markets. The fastest threat is the need for record US debt issuance colliding with fading foreign demand for long-term bonds.
The trigger? A failed long-duration Treasury auction, causing yields to explode and the US Dollar to surge. Phase 1 is brutal. Liquidity vanishes, credit spreads widen, and risk assets—including $BTC and high-growth tech—suffer a rapid, violent sell-off.
This shock, however, is the necessary precursor to the greatest hard-asset bull run of the decade. Phase 2 sees real yields collapse, the Dollar peak, and capital flood into finite, non-fiat assets. Gold breaks out, commodities surge, and $BTC, along with $ETH, begins a massive, multi-year recovery. The 2026-2028 cycle will be defined by resilience in assets that cannot be printed. Prepare for the shock, position for the opportunity.
Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
#Macro #SovereignDebt #BTCCycle #HardAssets #Liquidity
🚀
We are facing a silent convergence of three critical global fault lines that point directly to a sovereign bond shock in 2026. This is not a typical recession; this is a systemic event driven by US Treasury funding stress, the unwinding of the Japan carry trade system, and overleveraged Asian credit markets. The fastest threat is the need for record US debt issuance colliding with fading foreign demand for long-term bonds.
The trigger? A failed long-duration Treasury auction, causing yields to explode and the US Dollar to surge. Phase 1 is brutal. Liquidity vanishes, credit spreads widen, and risk assets—including $BTC and high-growth tech—suffer a rapid, violent sell-off.
This shock, however, is the necessary precursor to the greatest hard-asset bull run of the decade. Phase 2 sees real yields collapse, the Dollar peak, and capital flood into finite, non-fiat assets. Gold breaks out, commodities surge, and $BTC, along with $ETH, begins a massive, multi-year recovery. The 2026-2028 cycle will be defined by resilience in assets that cannot be printed. Prepare for the shock, position for the opportunity.
Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
#Macro #SovereignDebt #BTCCycle #HardAssets #Liquidity
🚀
History Says This Bloody Quarter Is The Final Capitulation
December opened ugly for $BTC , and many are fearing a new bear leg. But look closer at the history books. The last time we saw a fully red Q4 was 2018—the exact moment of final cycle capitulation.
Red fourth quarters are statistically rare events, and when they occur, they have historically functioned as the definitive signal of a late-stage bottom, not the beginning of a sustained, painful downtrend. The market is currently washing out the weak hands, setting the stage for a powerful spring rebound. This pattern suggests the worst is likely already over for $BTC and the wider crypto market.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
#BTCCycle #Capitulation #MarketBottom #CryptoHistory #Rebound
💎
December opened ugly for $BTC , and many are fearing a new bear leg. But look closer at the history books. The last time we saw a fully red Q4 was 2018—the exact moment of final cycle capitulation.
Red fourth quarters are statistically rare events, and when they occur, they have historically functioned as the definitive signal of a late-stage bottom, not the beginning of a sustained, painful downtrend. The market is currently washing out the weak hands, setting the stage for a powerful spring rebound. This pattern suggests the worst is likely already over for $BTC and the wider crypto market.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
#BTCCycle #Capitulation #MarketBottom #CryptoHistory #Rebound
💎
BTC update.
If BTC gives respect to current trend line it can break its resistance. Or if breakout happens in any direction, BTC can fall to 30-32k or can boom🔥
#TrendingTopic #TradeNTell #btccycle #HeadAndShoulder #btcto60k $BTC
If BTC gives respect to current trend line it can break its resistance. Or if breakout happens in any direction, BTC can fall to 30-32k or can boom🔥
#TrendingTopic #TradeNTell #btccycle #HeadAndShoulder #btcto60k $BTC
$BTC
Bitcoin growth engine is running out of steam💥💥
JUST IN: Bitcoin Must act Fast to beat Quantum by 2030, Say that Solana founder.
Solana founder ANATOLY YAKOVENKO forec casts a """50/50 big chance of a quantum computing breakout (breakthrough) By start 2030, and then says the #Bitcoin Holders and community must have "Big more speed up👆"
BITCOIN Cycle Growth engine is running⚡⚡
Bitcoin exponential growth cycles are shrinking dramatically, signaling potential technology limits.
Cycle 2013_2025
The 2013 Cycle saw growth at 310x ✨
Second 2017 Cycle saw growth drop up to 143x🙄🙄
Third 2021 cycle saw growth contract sharp to 11x simple😳
Fourth the 2025 cycle saw growth just dip at 2.1x 🤔🤔
Next cycle Next year. .......
Each new cycle about a quarter of the previous cycle.
#USBitcoinReserveDiscussion #Btccycle
Bitcoin growth engine is running out of steam💥💥
JUST IN: Bitcoin Must act Fast to beat Quantum by 2030, Say that Solana founder.
Solana founder ANATOLY YAKOVENKO forec casts a """50/50 big chance of a quantum computing breakout (breakthrough) By start 2030, and then says the #Bitcoin Holders and community must have "Big more speed up👆"
BITCOIN Cycle Growth engine is running⚡⚡
Bitcoin exponential growth cycles are shrinking dramatically, signaling potential technology limits.
Cycle 2013_2025
The 2013 Cycle saw growth at 310x ✨
Second 2017 Cycle saw growth drop up to 143x🙄🙄
Third 2021 cycle saw growth contract sharp to 11x simple😳
Fourth the 2025 cycle saw growth just dip at 2.1x 🤔🤔
Next cycle Next year. .......
Each new cycle about a quarter of the previous cycle.
#USBitcoinReserveDiscussion #Btccycle
The Stock to Flow / Power Law Scarcity Thesis CC: @100trillionUSD
Do you think it holds this cycle?
Thesis:
Every halving, Bitcoin Stock to Flow (measure of scarcity) doubles and market value increases 10x, a constant factor based on a power law relationship.
A power law is a relationship in which a relative change in one quantity gives rise to a proportional relative change in the other quantity, independent of the initial size of those quantities.
NB: A power law can be turned into a linear relationship if we plot the variables on logarithmic axes (orange line below).
#btc #btccycle #crypto #market #cpi #tothemoon
Do you think it holds this cycle?
Thesis:
Every halving, Bitcoin Stock to Flow (measure of scarcity) doubles and market value increases 10x, a constant factor based on a power law relationship.
A power law is a relationship in which a relative change in one quantity gives rise to a proportional relative change in the other quantity, independent of the initial size of those quantities.
NB: A power law can be turned into a linear relationship if we plot the variables on logarithmic axes (orange line below).
#btc #btccycle #crypto #market #cpi #tothemoon
BTC Cycles
Bitcoin cycles refer to the recurring patterns of growth, correction, and recovery in Bitcoin’s price over time. These cycles are often tied to the underlying economic principles of Bitcoin, market psychology, and external factors such as technological developments, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends. Here’s an explanation of the main aspects of Bitcoin cycles:
1. Halving Events
Definition: Bitcoin's supply schedule is programmed to halve the block rewards miners receive approximately every four years (210,000 blocks). This is known as a "halving."
Impact:
Reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, leading to a decrease in supply.
Often triggers a supply-demand imbalance that increases prices over time.
2. Bull Market Phase
Characteristics:
Significant price increases.
High investor interest, media coverage, and adoption.
Entry of new investors driven by "fear of missing out" (FOMO).
Drivers:
Reduced supply after a halving.
Increased demand from retail and institutional investors.
Speculation and positive sentiment.
Historical Examples: 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull runs.
3. Market Correction
Definition: A period following the peak of a bull market where prices decline significantly.
Characteristics:
Sharp price drops (often 70–90% from all-time highs).
Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) dominate.
Market sentiment shifts from greed to fear.
Reasons:
Profit-taking by early investors.
Overvaluation correction.
External events, such as regulatory crackdowns or global economic turmoil.
4. Bear Market Phase
Characteristics:
Prolonged periods of declining or stagnant prices.
Reduced trading volumes and media attention.
Market consolidation as weak hands exit and strong hands accumulate.
Duration: Typically lasts 1–2 years.
Purpose: Cleanses the market of speculative excess and sets the stage for the next growth phase.
5. Accumulation Phase
Definition: A period of price stabilization and gradual recovery.
Characteristics:
Long-term investors and institutions accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices.
Positive developments in technology, regulation, or adoption emerge.
Indicators:
Reduced market volatility.
Increased Bitcoin held in long-term wallets.
6. Renewed Bull Run
Triggers:
Increased demand as Bitcoin reaches prior price levels.
New participants enter the market.
Halving event catalyzing supply scarcity.
Cycle Repeats: The market moves into a new bull phase, continuing the cycle.
Summary of Historical Bitcoin Cycles
Understanding Bitcoin cycles helps investors make more informed decisions by recognizing patterns and anticipating potential market movements.
#bitcoin☀️ #CryptoHistoricMoment #btccycle #BTCBreaking100KAgain?
1. Halving Events
Definition: Bitcoin's supply schedule is programmed to halve the block rewards miners receive approximately every four years (210,000 blocks). This is known as a "halving."
Impact:
Reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, leading to a decrease in supply.
Often triggers a supply-demand imbalance that increases prices over time.
2. Bull Market Phase
Characteristics:
Significant price increases.
High investor interest, media coverage, and adoption.
Entry of new investors driven by "fear of missing out" (FOMO).
Drivers:
Reduced supply after a halving.
Increased demand from retail and institutional investors.
Speculation and positive sentiment.
Historical Examples: 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull runs.
3. Market Correction
Definition: A period following the peak of a bull market where prices decline significantly.
Characteristics:
Sharp price drops (often 70–90% from all-time highs).
Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) dominate.
Market sentiment shifts from greed to fear.
Reasons:
Profit-taking by early investors.
Overvaluation correction.
External events, such as regulatory crackdowns or global economic turmoil.
4. Bear Market Phase
Characteristics:
Prolonged periods of declining or stagnant prices.
Reduced trading volumes and media attention.
Market consolidation as weak hands exit and strong hands accumulate.
Duration: Typically lasts 1–2 years.
Purpose: Cleanses the market of speculative excess and sets the stage for the next growth phase.
5. Accumulation Phase
Definition: A period of price stabilization and gradual recovery.
Characteristics:
Long-term investors and institutions accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices.
Positive developments in technology, regulation, or adoption emerge.
Indicators:
Reduced market volatility.
Increased Bitcoin held in long-term wallets.
6. Renewed Bull Run
Triggers:
Increased demand as Bitcoin reaches prior price levels.
New participants enter the market.
Halving event catalyzing supply scarcity.
Cycle Repeats: The market moves into a new bull phase, continuing the cycle.
Summary of Historical Bitcoin Cycles
Understanding Bitcoin cycles helps investors make more informed decisions by recognizing patterns and anticipating potential market movements.
#bitcoin☀️ #CryptoHistoricMoment #btccycle #BTCBreaking100KAgain?
$BTC 2017 vs Today 📈
Once this pullback wraps up, a sharp reversal looks like the highest-probability move. 🚀
Back in 2017, the same price pattern formed — and right after that correction, ALTS surged and outperformed BTC, especially $DASH .
Today’s structure mirrors that setup almost perfectly.
History might not repeat… but it definitely echoes. 👀 $ZEN
#BTCCycle #AltseasonSignals #CryptoPatterns #MarketReversal #MarketPullback
Once this pullback wraps up, a sharp reversal looks like the highest-probability move. 🚀
Back in 2017, the same price pattern formed — and right after that correction, ALTS surged and outperformed BTC, especially $DASH .
Today’s structure mirrors that setup almost perfectly.
History might not repeat… but it definitely echoes. 👀 $ZEN
#BTCCycle #AltseasonSignals #CryptoPatterns #MarketReversal #MarketPullback
BITCOIN Cycle Phases like you've never seen them before! #sanor016CommUNITY #sanor016 #btccycle #BITCOIN $BTC
🚨‼️People Lose Their Minds Every Time Bitcoin Prints a Red November
But They Always Ignore One simple truth‼️Bitcoin Never Moved in Straight, Clean, Polite Line🚨‼️
Its entire history is built on violent swings — not quiet exits.
When you zoom out and study the monthly data, it becomes obvious:
• November drops of -20% to -35% have happened multiple times
• March has been a graveyard more than once
• September has humbled everyone repeatedly
• Entire clusters of red smashed 2014, 2018, and 2022
And guess what?
Every single cycle follows the same rhythm:
Fear → Drop → Panic → Accumulation → Violent comeback.
Smart money knows this.
Retail forgets it every time.
#btccycle
#NovemberMarketCrashed
But They Always Ignore One simple truth‼️Bitcoin Never Moved in Straight, Clean, Polite Line🚨‼️
Its entire history is built on violent swings — not quiet exits.
When you zoom out and study the monthly data, it becomes obvious:
• November drops of -20% to -35% have happened multiple times
• March has been a graveyard more than once
• September has humbled everyone repeatedly
• Entire clusters of red smashed 2014, 2018, and 2022
And guess what?
Every single cycle follows the same rhythm:
Fear → Drop → Panic → Accumulation → Violent comeback.
Smart money knows this.
Retail forgets it every time.
#btccycle
#NovemberMarketCrashed
🚨 THE CONTRARIAN CALL: BITCOIN'S "BEAR ZONE" IS A CLASSIC CYCLE RESET! 🔄
The headlines are shouting doom: Bitcoin ($BTC) is hitting its most "bearish" levels since the beginning of the cycle, Institutional ETF inflows are drying up, and we're seeing a trend line breakdown. The fear is palpable. But to the seasoned investor, this is the sweet spot of opportunity!
📉 THE FUD-FILLED REALITY CHECK
Key Technical Breach: $BTC's slide below the critical 365-day trend line is a textbook signal that historically marks the shift from bull to bear.
Institutional Fatigue: ETF flows have hit record monthly outflows in November (totaling nearly $3 billion), proving institutional conviction has faded after the early-year surge.
Price Drop: Bitcoin is currently trading around $85,000 - $90,000, representing a roughly 29% pullback from its recent peak near $126,000.
🤫 WHY SMARTER MONEY IS RETHINKING THE SELLOFF
This heavy, conviction-crushing price action is NOT the end of the cycle; it's the required phase before the next leg up.
The Cycle Cleansing: Every major cycle move is preceded by a shakeout that flushes out over-leveraged traders and forces the "tourists" to sell at a loss. This creates the optimal low-risk entry for those with long-term perspective.
The Historical Playbook: In past cycles, a deep correction of this magnitude (\approx 28\%) has always been followed by a powerful relief rally of 40% to 50% before the true bear market takes hold—if it takes hold at all.
The Re-Accumulation: While retail and short-term traders panic, long-term holders and offshore liquidity are quietly stepping in to absorb the selling pressure, allowing $BTC to hold the $85,000 - $90,000 range despite record ETF outflows.
🔥 The Next Spark: A decisive reclaim of the psychological and technical $102,000 Resistance level is the key. Once that high-volume institutional selling is overcome, the tone flips instantly.
Don't mistake a cycle reset for a collapse. The four-year rhythm is still alive, and capitulation is often the signal that the biggest gains are about to brew.
#BTCCycle #CryptoDip #SmartMoney #Reaccumulation #BTCPriceAction
📉 THE FUD-FILLED REALITY CHECK
Key Technical Breach: $BTC's slide below the critical 365-day trend line is a textbook signal that historically marks the shift from bull to bear.
Institutional Fatigue: ETF flows have hit record monthly outflows in November (totaling nearly $3 billion), proving institutional conviction has faded after the early-year surge.
Price Drop: Bitcoin is currently trading around $85,000 - $90,000, representing a roughly 29% pullback from its recent peak near $126,000.
🤫 WHY SMARTER MONEY IS RETHINKING THE SELLOFF
This heavy, conviction-crushing price action is NOT the end of the cycle; it's the required phase before the next leg up.
The Cycle Cleansing: Every major cycle move is preceded by a shakeout that flushes out over-leveraged traders and forces the "tourists" to sell at a loss. This creates the optimal low-risk entry for those with long-term perspective.
The Historical Playbook: In past cycles, a deep correction of this magnitude (\approx 28\%) has always been followed by a powerful relief rally of 40% to 50% before the true bear market takes hold—if it takes hold at all.
The Re-Accumulation: While retail and short-term traders panic, long-term holders and offshore liquidity are quietly stepping in to absorb the selling pressure, allowing $BTC to hold the $85,000 - $90,000 range despite record ETF outflows.
🔥 The Next Spark: A decisive reclaim of the psychological and technical $102,000 Resistance level is the key. Once that high-volume institutional selling is overcome, the tone flips instantly.
Don't mistake a cycle reset for a collapse. The four-year rhythm is still alive, and capitulation is often the signal that the biggest gains are about to brew.
#BTCCycle #CryptoDip #SmartMoney #Reaccumulation #BTCPriceAction
The Bitcoin cycle peak is approaching.
The next seven weeks could deliver the biggest gains of this bull run.
Those ready to act may see life-changing rewards.
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #CryptoUpdate #BTCcycle #BullRun
The next seven weeks could deliver the biggest gains of this bull run.
Those ready to act may see life-changing rewards.
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #CryptoUpdate #BTCcycle #BullRun
🚀 Raoul Pal: Bitcoin Cycle Now Extends to 5 Years, Next Peak in 2026
Macro investor Raoul Pal says Bitcoin’s classic 4-year cycle is no longer valid - the new rhythm is 5 years, with the next major peak expected around Q2 2026.
Pal believes this shift reflects how institutional adoption, ETF flows, and global liquidity are reshaping Bitcoin’s long-term structure.
“We’re not in the same retail-driven market anymore - Bitcoin now moves with the macro cycle,” he noted.
If he’s right, the current consolidation could be setting up for a longer, more powerful expansion phase than any previous cycle.
#Bitcoin #RaoulPal #CryptoMacro #BTCcycle
Macro investor Raoul Pal says Bitcoin’s classic 4-year cycle is no longer valid - the new rhythm is 5 years, with the next major peak expected around Q2 2026.
Pal believes this shift reflects how institutional adoption, ETF flows, and global liquidity are reshaping Bitcoin’s long-term structure.
“We’re not in the same retail-driven market anymore - Bitcoin now moves with the macro cycle,” he noted.
If he’s right, the current consolidation could be setting up for a longer, more powerful expansion phase than any previous cycle.
#Bitcoin #RaoulPal #CryptoMacro #BTCcycle
🧢PlanB Says Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle May Be Misunderstood
🟡Crypto analyst PlanB, creator of the S2F model, warns that Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may not be a strict rule. With only three historical cycles, predicting trends is tricky. This cycle’s peak could come in 2026–2028, and the market may enter a more stable era dominated by institutional players 🪙
$BTC
#Bitcoin #PlanB #BTCCycle
🟡Crypto analyst PlanB, creator of the S2F model, warns that Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may not be a strict rule. With only three historical cycles, predicting trends is tricky. This cycle’s peak could come in 2026–2028, and the market may enter a more stable era dominated by institutional players 🪙
$BTC
#Bitcoin #PlanB #BTCCycle
📢 Is the Crypto Crash Overblown? Why 'Euphoric' Levels Haven't Been Hit!
$BTC
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden is dropping some serious truth bombs, and it's a breath of fresh air amidst all the FUD! While Bitcoin is down over 22% in the last 30 days (yikes, check out that chart!), Alden says a "major capitulation" might be unlikely.
The core reason? We never hit those full-blown "euphoric levels" in this cycle that typically precede a major landslide. Simply put, there's less hot air to let out!
$BTC
This also shuts down the rigid "four-year cycle" theory—Alden argues the market is driven by broader macro forces, not just the halving. While some are calling for a massive 65-70% retracement (hello, Vineet Budki!), Alden has a more moderate long-term outlook, expecting Bitcoin to reclaim $100K by 2026.
Her best advice for traders fixated on the next uptrend? "No one is owed a bull market." It's a wake-up call to stop treating these cycles like they’re guaranteed.
What do you think? Is this the dip before a mega-run to $250K (looking at you, Arthur Hayes), or is a longer, cooler phase ahead?
$BTC
#Bitcoin #Crypto #LynAlden #MacroEconomics #BTCCycle
$BTC
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden is dropping some serious truth bombs, and it's a breath of fresh air amidst all the FUD! While Bitcoin is down over 22% in the last 30 days (yikes, check out that chart!), Alden says a "major capitulation" might be unlikely.
The core reason? We never hit those full-blown "euphoric levels" in this cycle that typically precede a major landslide. Simply put, there's less hot air to let out!
$BTC
This also shuts down the rigid "four-year cycle" theory—Alden argues the market is driven by broader macro forces, not just the halving. While some are calling for a massive 65-70% retracement (hello, Vineet Budki!), Alden has a more moderate long-term outlook, expecting Bitcoin to reclaim $100K by 2026.
Her best advice for traders fixated on the next uptrend? "No one is owed a bull market." It's a wake-up call to stop treating these cycles like they’re guaranteed.
What do you think? Is this the dip before a mega-run to $250K (looking at you, Arthur Hayes), or is a longer, cooler phase ahead?
$BTC
#Bitcoin #Crypto #LynAlden #MacroEconomics #BTCCycle
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