btceur

Daily Chart Perspective
On the daily timeframe, the market is in a sustained downtrend, having broken below a major descending channel, the $110,000 support zone, and the 100-day moving average that coincided with it. The loss of these crucial levels points to an increased chance of a deeper correction. Potential downside targets are the $104,000 fair value gap or the 200-day moving average, which is close to the significant psychological level of $100,000. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining under 50 indicates that momentum is currently in favor of sellers, reinforcing the likelihood of continued price drops.

4-Hour Chart View
The 4-hour chart shows a clear bearish trend, with the price consistently forming lower peaks and troughs within a narrow descending channel. The support levels at $117,000 and $110,000 have been definitively breached and subsequently retested, making the $104,000 fair value gap the next logical target. The RSI, sitting below 50, confirms the bearish momentum. The price is also nearing the Fibonacci golden zone, with the 78.6% retracement level aligning with the $104,000 fair value gap. This area is a key target and could be a point of potential recovery, and how the market responds to this level will be a significant factor in determining the future direction over the coming weeks.

On-Chain Metrics: Exchange Holdings
The chart on exchange reserves illustrates the quantity of Bitcoin held on trading platforms, shown by the purple line, alongside its USD price, represented by the white line. A notable trend is the continuous reduction in exchange reserves since the beginning of the year. This signifies that investors are moving their Bitcoin off exchanges and into secure cold storage, reducing the amount of supply readily available for trading.
From a fundamental supply and demand standpoint, this is a very important trend. As the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges diminishes, the market becomes tighter. If demand remains stable or grows, this supply-side pressure could drive prices higher in the long run, as has been seen with Bitcoin's recent surge to a new all-time high. However, short-term price adjustments, such as the recent pullback, can still occur if demand weakens or broader economic conditions shift.
#BTCEUR #BTCGBP #BTCUSDT

#BTCEUR remains in bull flag since the March ATH, with a quick hit-n-reverse ~45k #EUR which is well telegraphed before July 24Q2 review. While the path toward that Aug. low is more complexe then I initially expected, it exactly fits the corrective characteristics of a 4th #Elliottwave labeled in yellow.

To the upside, 90k region is a very good conservative target, it would make orange (5) roughly 0.618 of (3), and yellow V 0.618 of III. Additionally 2.236 is a common target for a 5th wave, in this case for the yellow V. 2.618 or 116k can be an outsize target but we will only evaluate its possibility after the March ATH is taken out.

For now the Aug. low is important to watch as it happened to test the lower limit of the most bullish interpretation. By no means the longterm bullish potential breaks if BTC gets lower, but making a higher low in Sep. would be a nice confirmation of an immediate bull run. Under 40k EUR would be a red flag for bulls and under 36k the impulsive upside potential will no longer be viable. Longterm hodlers can use the 50/55WMA combo or the 89WMA as guidance to manage risk.
Looking closer, the action off the Aug. low is rather corrective, but that's ok as we are looking for a wave 1 which can be an LD, and the entire 5th can also be an ED. For shortterm traders 50k-47k is a decent long entry and fibs support for bulls, with defined risk of 46.9k stop. Bears on the other hand can use 55k and 56k as aggressive short stops.

TLDR: maintain $BTC target 90k #euro as long as 45k holds.