bitcoin

📅 January 23 |
For the first time since October 2023, onchain data shows something that historically marks the beginning of much more delicate phases of the cycle: investors are starting to realize net losses when moving their BTC. It's not just a price drop, it's a profound change in market behavior. And when this pattern appeared in the past, it didn't anticipate a simple correction... it anticipated a complete bear market.

📖According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin holders have begun to record net realized losses over the last 30 days, a phenomenon not seen for more than two years.
The firm explains that since December 23, 2025, investors have realized accumulated losses equivalent to 69,000 BTC. This data is not based on assumptions, but on direct analysis of onchain transactions combined with market prices at the time of each transfer.
Each time a bitcoin changes hands, CryptoQuant compares the current price with the price at which that same coin was previously transferred, determining whether there was an actual gain or loss.
The most disturbing thing is not only the recent data, but the pattern that has been forming since the beginning of 2024. The peaks of realized profits have been increasingly smaller in January 2024, December 2024, July 2025 and October 2025.
It is a sequence of declining highs that the firm says reveals that price strength was weakening even as the spot value still remained high.
CryptoQuant points out that this behavior almost exactly reflects the transition from the bullish to the bearish cycle that occurred between 2021 and 2022. At that time, realized gains began to progressively decline throughout 2021 until, months before the 2022 bear market, the flow definitively changed towards net losses.
Currently, annual net realized gains have fallen to 2.5 million BTC, a sharp reduction from 4.4 million BTC recorded in October. It is the lowest level since March 2024 and very similar to the values ​​​​seen in March 2022, when the previous bear market was already underway.

Topic Opinion:
This is one of those indicators that usually go unnoticed by the general public but that onchain analysts consider critical. When investors start accepting real losses instead of waiting for recoveries, the psychology of the market changes. It is no longer about patience, but about progressive capitulation. If this pattern continues, we could be seeing not a temporary correction, but the confirmed start of a new bearish phase for Bitcoin, very similar to the one experienced after the 2021 high.
💬 Are we at the beginning of a new bear market?

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#bitcoin #CryptoQuant #Onchain #bearmarket #CryptoNews $BTC

The crypto market is buzzing, and all eyes are, as usual, on Bitcoin. After a remarkable run and several weeks of consolidation, BTC is once again testing critical resistance levels, specifically eyeing the $75,000 mark. This isn't just another price point; it's a psychological and technical barrier that could dictate the next major move for the entire market.

​What's Driving the Optimism?

​Institutional Inflow: We've seen a consistent stream of institutional money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs and other investment vehicles. This isn't just retail speculation; it's smart money recognizing the long-term value and scarcity of BTC. This sustained demand provides a strong foundational support.
​Macroeconomic Tailwinds: While inflation remains a concern, recent economic data suggests a potential cooling, which could lead to a more dovish stance from central banks. Lower interest rates typically make risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive.
​Halving Hype (Lingering Effects): Although the halving event has passed, its supply shock implications are still playing out. Historically, the months following a halving tend to be strong for Bitcoin as the reduced supply meets increasing demand.
​On-Chain Metrics: Various on-chain indicators, such as HODL waves and accumulation trends, suggest that long-term holders are strengthening their positions, indicating conviction rather than panic selling.

​The Bearish Counterpoint: Why Caution is Prudent

​While the bull case is compelling, it's crucial to acknowledge potential headwinds:

​Overbought Conditions: Some technical indicators on shorter timeframes suggest Bitcoin might be running hot, potentially due for a healthy correction or consolidation before another leg up.
​Global Regulatory Uncertainty: Regulatory landscapes continue to evolve, and any unexpected crackdown or unfavorable legislation from major economies could introduce volatility.
​Profit-Taking: After significant gains, there's always the possibility of large holders taking profits, which could trigger temporary sell-offs.

​What to Watch Next:

​$75,000 Resistance: A clear, sustained break above this level, ideally with significant volume, would be a strong bullish signal.
​Key Support at $68,000 - $70,000: If BTC fails to break $75k, watching these immediate support levels will be crucial. A drop below could indicate a deeper retracement.
​Macro Economic Data: Keep an eye on CPI reports, Fed statements, and employment figures. These will continue to influence market sentiment.

​My Take: I remain cautiously optimistic. The confluence of institutional interest and post-halving dynamics points towards continued upside. However, maintaining strong risk management and preparing for potential pullbacks is paramount. Volatility is the nature of crypto!

​What are your thoughts? Are you bullish, bearish, or neutral on Bitcoin's immediate future? Share your analysis and price predictions below! Let's discuss where we're heading. 👇 #bitcoin #CryptoMarket #trading #Bullrun #MarketAnalysis