marketdynamics

Here is something I´d like someone to prove me wrong about, please!

Something from Nothing, Again:
The Classical Strategies Being Applied to Crypto

What's the Landscape?
1. The macro-economy conditions and global stock markets provide the baseline.
2. The tech industry creates the first level (on top of & further rising or falling with the macro-economy).
3. Blockchain forms the second level (on top of & further affected by both the macro-economy and tech industry).
4. Apps and platforms make up the third level (on top of & further influenced by all previous levels). A brand new market to make money!(?)
5. Note that none of the markets could in principle be independent - there is a strong feedback across all levels as well.

Bitcoin & The Big Players
After $BTC early years of survival (the other layer 0 tokens have insignificant market share—even with efforts to push them, they have little impact on the market itself...) and political trends shifted (I’ll avoid going deep into that here), it became clear that $BTC was no longer beyond the reach of governments and big investors. The recent surge in value, following elections, confirmed that big players are not just watching from the sidelines—they’re buying in.

Why is $BTC So Volatile?
Because big players want to profit:
1. Recent hype around memecoins, altcoins, apps, and social media has drawn in hordes of small-scale investors, eager for quick gains. Though individually small, retail investors collectively control a large amount of funds.
2. Big investors are skilled, capital-rich, and often have inside information. They have tools to take risks that small investors can’t compete with fairly.

A Slightly Modified Classic to Reach Ultimate Profits:
1. Spread a narrative that “people are leaving $BTC for memecoins/altcoins!” by buying up a few memecoins/altcoins.
2. Use substantial capital to inflate the token's price in quick bursts, triggering FOMO among retail traders.
3. Watch the buzz build, prompting retail investors to sell $BTC and fiat. Chase the memecoin/alcoin gains.
4. Track the sentiment: once retail investors start shouting, “This is the next big thing!” it’s time to dump and take profits.
5. As $BTC prices drop and the sentiment fades, buy BTC for your fiat and exit the memecoins.
6. The retail crowd can’t keep up, as big players can move billions—enough to dictate the market.
7. The retail crowd will return to $BTC , pumping your investment further up.
8. Convince everyone that this is just normal market behavior (though it’s really not, compared to a standard stock exchange - where it would be impossible to manipulate the market in such a large scale because the actives represent an actul physical value & there are settled big players for a century already, long term investments, little room for speculations).
9. Repeat every few hours/days (as the market sentiment allows), use information channels and connections to increase effectivness. Note that this won´t work forever (there will be some indicators that retail does not invest too much anymore - the smarket stabilizes, the trust fades, influencers cease to work, liquidity drops - then the profits have been made, wait for the market to "forget", try again something similar next year or two, do it until there are regulations actively demanded by the crypto comunity itself! Coming soon...).

The Hard Truth:
You are competing in a market where you have no chance of winning against major players who control the capital, possess superior skills, insider knowledge, and dictate the strategy. If you make significant gains, it’s likely due to luck—like hitting the lottery, though perhaps a bit more predictable. The reason why some people got rich in the first crypto wave was that big players did not took it seriously yet. I´m confident to say that most small investments will end up in the pockets of the big players. It’s a capital-driven market, not one driven by technology but by emotion, sentiment, and investor expectations.

Did Satoshi Have a Strategy?
Did Satoshi moved a substantial amount of $BTC to dormant wallets to stabilize the price and prevent a total sell-off? This could have been an effort to make Bitcoin a more stable asset. Or maybe not, and it´s just like with the other coins, to keep control over it by the opportunity to move the milions of coins at will. I’d say that there’s at least 50:50 chance Satoshi’s motives were purely self-serving, aiming to cash out after amassing a potential fortune in the billions. I can´t make me believe him to be a young independent ingenuine altruistic hacker - it does not compute anymore for me. If Satoshi is who we think it is (based on recent disclosures - an older tech-skilled convicted fraudster connected to both technically skilled and government players) — it would make perfect sense to create a new type of market in attempt to dominate the future cyberspace landscape as we see today.

Why Some of Us Are Laughing Anyway:
For those of us who dreamed of a truly independent monetary system, the current reality is grim. Governments and big companies are/will be buying up crypto and, with it, gaining influence over the market. Bitcoin mining is no longer accessible to individuals; it’s in the hands of big players. A lot of dedicated 1 year old hardware became obsolete that wery year. Some GPUs were single-use, just for this. What is called “mining” today has turned into mindless app-clicking for crumbs, while platforms profit from ads and microtransactions. A simple task—sending funds to someone else—has transformed into massive factories full of expensive hardware, driving tech market profits without real technological innovation. Instead, existing chips are sold at inflated prices because suddenly, everyone needs them.

These actions have stunted real market growth, as chip manufacturers focused on profits from inflated prices instead of producing what other industries actually needed. As major industries and investors manipulate the still-small crypto market compared to traditional stock exchanges, you have to wonder if they planned it this way to gain leverage in the real market (for sure—why else would Intel drop while Nvidia surged?). Coin values are driven by emotions and disinformation, not by technological advancements or brilliant ideas. We criticize “money printing,” yet most tokens do the same (or the opposite, by burning). Now, government, corporate, and celebrity-backed coins dominate the headlines in a social media-driven market. Meanwhile, layer 0 coin mining and token “mining” in apps generate a huge carbon footprint, further devaluing real capital.

I dislike government regulations and taxes, but an unregulated market leads to exactly what we see now—scams, money laundering, propaganda, and fake news used to get rich fast through manipulation. Unfortunately, nothing better has been invented yet. Some might claim otherwise (because they either believe or lie). There is no real added value yet. This isn’t an emerging financial revolution; it's another speculative madness from which the foundations of a financial revolution could, possibly, perhaps, start. Let’s hope. I have some hope because promising crypto technologies might eventually rule and prevent malicious intentions. Unfortunately, no one cares about them yet, but will.

However, I’m OK with this because I’m a gambler at heart. I’ll ride the chaos—let’s see if I get lucky. I don’t care about the negative environmental impacts (politically, socially, economically, ecologically...). I live on the edge and seek opportunities, unconcerned with what happens to the universe after I'm gone. Let Rome burn—I can’t make people stop it, anyway. I can’t force or persuade people to follow logic. So, let’s ride the chaos.

I definitely love what people think crypto is, but hate what it actually became, because it is now the same problem like fiat (+ huge extra scam strategies to "make you rich", especially you, freethinking techguru futuristic Joe with spare 500 dollars just "invested" into randomcoin, hey, I´m speaking to you! :)

You might (and certainly will) hate me now—but I challenge you to offer an alternative perspective and prove me wrong, please.

- DrEdCrypto

#altcoins #memecoins #BTC #marketdynamics #provemewrong