onchainanalysis

I've gone through 2 downtrend since 2017, and one thing I learned: this isn't the time to rush.
The key for success is patience, you must have the best possible position before next uptrend
Sometimes, basics are the best, you don't need to know much, these metrics of onchain $BTC are enough to determine the bottom zone:
1/ Realized price: the "average cost basic" at which all bitcoin were purchased!
Currently it stays around 55K -> compare with historical price, when $BTC drops to below the realized price, it's the most ideal price to all-in your bag.

2/ MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
Current: 1.22 -> market is at "fair value" zone, still higher than accumulation zone (<1.0).
Compared with historical data 0.5-0.8 at 2018/2022, $BTC may decline ~18-36% from here to meet the same MVRV levels.

3. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
Current: 0.98 -> it shows the slight capitulation but not extreme levels (<0.95). The bottoming SOPR usually remains under 0.95 for a longer period.

4. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
Current: 0.18 it's still in the "hope" phrase, we need a negative NUPL to see the market fully capitulate.
5. Puell Multiple (miner profitability by comparing daily revenue (USD) against its 365-day moving average.)
current: 0.77 -> Miners are under pressure but haven't reached full capitulation.
History shows that bottoms often forms when it below 0.5.

Bottom line:
Apply to this cycle, BTC is in the early stage of accumulation but has not reached the full capitulation. It needs time for deeper discount!
Using the metrics above to calculate:
Extremely bear: 38K-44K
Base case: 55K-60K
From my POV 55K-60K I'll start #DCA, under realized price I'll all-in my bag.
#Onchain #OnChainAnalysis

Market Context
Market data shows that the $60,000–$70,000 range has recently become one of the most important accumulation zones for Bitcoin in the current market cycle.
Blockchain analytics suggest that hundreds of thousands of BTC were accumulated within this range, creating a significant support structure that could influence price movements in the coming months.
This type of accumulation often creates what traders call a “battlefield price zone.”
On-Chain Accumulation Signals
Recent market analysis indicates that approximately 600,000 BTC were accumulated between $60K and $70K.
This has several implications:
Many investors who bought in this range are currently in profit or close to breakevenThe level may act as strong support during correctionsLarge holders may defend this range to protect their positions
Historically, zones with heavy accumulation tend to become important liquidity clusters where major price reactions occur.
Market Psychology at Key Levels
The behavior of investors around major price zones often determines the next trend.
At the current stage, the market is divided into three groups:
Long-term holders
Investors accumulating during corrections who are willing to hold through volatility.
Short-term traders
Participants attempting to profit from short-term fluctuations around resistance and support levels.
Late buyers
Investors who entered the market above $70K and may be waiting for price recovery.
This combination creates a psychological equilibrium, where neither bulls nor bears currently dominate the market.
Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1 — Bullish Continuation
If Bitcoin successfully holds above the $70K region, the next resistance zones could appear around:
$80,000$92,000$100,000 psychological level
A break above these levels could accelerate bullish sentiment across the market.
Scenario 2 — Short-Term Correction
If the support zone fails, price could temporarily revisit lower liquidity areas near:
$60,000$55,000
Such corrections are common even during strong bull cycles and often serve to reset market leverage and sentiment.
Why This Level Matters
Large accumulation zones often become long-term reference points for market participants.
If the current support range remains intact, it could mark the foundation for the next expansion phase of the crypto market.
However, if it breaks decisively, volatility may increase as traders reposition across the market.
Final Insight
The cryptocurrency market frequently moves between phases of accumulation, expansion, and distribution.
At the moment, Bitcoin appears to be navigating a critical accumulation zone that could shape the next major trend.
For investors and traders alike, the coming weeks may reveal whether this level becomes a launchpad for higher prices or a temporary pause in the broader market cycle.
Discussion for the community
Do you believe the $70K zone will hold as long-term support for Bitcoin, or will the market revisit lower levels before the next rally?
#crypto #CryptoResearch #OnChainAnalysis #CryptoMarket #BinanceSquare

Today's on-chain analysis for major cryptocurrencies (primarily Bitcoin, as it's the benchmark) shows a mixed but recovering picture amid recent price action.Bitcoin is trading around $70,000–$71,000 (with recent highs near $71,089 and lows around $67,300 in the past 24 hours), up roughly 4-5% in the last day and showing positive momentum after a pullback phase. Key insights from on-chain data sources like CryptoQuant, Glassnode, Checkonchain, and others:
Network activity remains solid, with daily confirmed transactions in the 350,000–430,000 range and healthy block sizes/throughput, indicating sustained user engagement despite volatility.Market sentiment is cautiously improving: Spot demand shows early stabilization signs, with some ETF inflows/outflows balancing out (though US spot ETFs have seen net selling pressure in recent periods compared to prior years). Profitability metrics (e.g., falling realized profits in some cohorts) suggest reduced selling pressure from holders, creating room for a potential bounce.Derivatives and liquidity: Futures positioning stays cautious, but options data hints at fading downside fear and growing interest in upside levels (around $75k). Stablecoin supply dynamics are tightening slightly, but overall liquidity supports recovery potential.Broader context: Bitcoin dominance hovers near 59%, with the total crypto market cap reflecting resilience. On-chain indicators point to an "unsteady ground" but with tentative bullish internals, especially as BTC holds key zones above $60k–$70k while overhead supply caps bigger rallies.
Overall, the on-chain picture leans defensive yet with rebound potential in the short term, driven by stabilizing demand and reduced panic selling. Keep watching ETF flows, exchange movements, and miner metrics for confirmation.#Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets #OnChainAnalysis #TrumpSaysIranWarWillEndVerySoon #OilPricesSlide $BTC
$USDC
$ETH

Ethereum's been taking a serious beating lately, and honestly, it's tough to watch. From its all-time high around $4,950–$5,000 back in August 2025, ETH has shed nearly 60% of its value. As of mid-March 2026, it's hovering in the low $2,000s—struggling to hold above that psychological $2,000 level and showing no real conviction for a sustained bounce.
What's even more concerning isn't just the price action; it's the on-chain signals painting a pretty grim picture right now. Network activity has cooled off dramatically. Daily active addresses have seen sharp drops—some reports highlight declines of 45–47% in recent weeks, with figures falling from peaks over 1.3 million in early February to around 700,000–800,000 (or even lower on certain days) by early March. While not every metric shows the exact same monthly active user drop from 15.3 million to 12.7 million (that might blend different tracking methods), the trend is clear: fewer unique participants are engaging with the chain. When users exit or go dormant in droves, it reduces organic demand and leaves more supply floating around without buyers stepping in aggressively.
Exchange activity tells a similar story of caution (or outright selling pressure). Spot trading volumes on decentralized exchanges (DEXes) reportedly dipped to lows around $1 billion recently—the weakest since January—and that's historically been a precursor to bigger downside moves. Low volume often means thin liquidity, where even modest selling can trigger outsized drops.
On the centralized exchange side, we've seen mixed flows: some periods with net inflows (adding ETH back to sellable pools) and others with outflows (people pulling to self-custody for long-term holding). Recently, there were notable inflows—like transfers to Binance and Coinbase totaling millions in value—pushing more ETH onto platforms where it's easier to offload. Exchange reserves aren't at all-time highs, but the direction can shift quickly if sentiment sours further. Fewer withdrawals to cold storage signal less conviction in holding through the storm.
All this adds up to a network that's seeing reduced usage amid broader market weakness—likely tied to macro pressures rather than any fatal flaw in Ethereum itself. Fundamentals like low gas fees and high transaction throughput are still there (some months saw way more activity at fractions of past costs), but right now, participation is down, and that's weighing heavily on price recovery.
Until we see a reversal—spiking active addresses, stronger outflows from exchanges, or volume picking up with real buying interest—breaking and holding above $2,000+ looks challenging. The path back feels uncertain at best.
$ETH – hang in there, but eyes wide open on these metrics. #Ethereum #CryptoMarket #OnChainAnalysis #StrategyBTCPurchase

The cryptocurrency market over the past week has felt like a tug-of-war with an uncertain outcome. With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East stretched tight, the price of Bitcoin continues to oscillate between $60,000 and $70,000. Amidst this ambiguous price action, on-chain data is presenting two(completely different) pictures: on one hand, the remarkable calmness of Long-Term Holders (LTHs); on the other, an undercurrent of increased activity in their supply.
Is Bitcoin in the process of bottoming out, or is it caught in a 'liquidity illusion' just before another downturn?
The LTH 'Paradox': Calm Indicators vs. Active Supply
First, let's focus on what are often considered the smartest money in the market: Long-Term Holders (LTHs) . Typically, entities holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days are viewed as the market's anchors, and their behavior often signals the beginning or end of trends.
According to data from CryptoQuant, analyst Darkfost points out that the current CVDD (Coin Value Days Destroyed) metric, which measures the entry of older coins into circulation, is hovering around 0.34. This level is usually associated with the inactivity of LTHs seen during bear markets. Historically, the CVDD metric only spikes above 2.0 when LTHs are distributing coins heavily to the market, often marking market tops.
From this perspective, Long-Term Holders are currently selling very little. They have chosen to 'stay put,' which provides solid support for the market's bottom.
However, another data source paints a different picture. Observations from on-chain analyst Boris on platform X indicate that the Active Supply Ratio of Long-Term Holders is continuously rising. An increase in this metric typically means that 'ancient coins,' which have been dormant for years, are being awakened or moved.
Historically, such movements often precede significant market changes. Boris explains that in past market cycles, shifts in LTH supply were often a prelude to substantial price increases, as they represent the strategic reallocation of capital for a new phase of market activity. But the current issue is that this metric's rise has been accompanied by a price drop from $95,000 to the $60,000 abyss.
This creates a peculiar contradiction: LTHs aren't moving en masse (low CVDD), yet dormant coins appear to be awakening (high active supply ratio).
Interpretation: The End of Distribution, or a Illusion of Accumulation?
The most likely explanation for this contradiction is that the market is in the final stages of a large-scale 'redistribution' phase.
Boris believes that despite the price decline, the upward trend in LTH supply activity hasn't reversed, implying that potential downside risk still exists. He warns that even if a rebound occurs in the coming weeks, it might just be a 'liquidity illusion' a brief bull trap occurring within a larger distribution cycle.
The current price support zone ($60,000-$62,000) may appear solid, but it could actually function as a 'liquidity generation zone' an area where numerous stop-losses and limit orders are concentrated. The market might sweep through this liquidity before a (true) move begins.
The 'Good News' on the Other Side: Selling Pressure Drying Up?
Despite the concerning signals from LTHs, the market's (balance) isn't entirely tipped towards the bears. Concurrent with the mixed LTH signals, selling pressure across the broader market is notably decreasing.
Data shows that Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are continuously declining, now at their lowest levels since September 2024. This type of outflow during price consolidation is typically a hallmark of accumulation, not distribution.
More importantly, a key driver of the previous market crash outflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs has reversed. After experiencing net outflows totaling $6.38 billion from November last year to February, ETFs have recorded net inflows of $1.36 billion over the past two weeks. Institutional giants, led by BlackRock, appear to be quietly accumulating coins, injecting confidence into the market.
Macro Fog and Conclusion
On the macro front, while heightened tensions in the Middle East triggered short-term risk-off selling, multiple institutional analyses suggest such geopolitical shocks usually cause short-term volatility but don't alter Bitcoin's macro trajectory. QCP Capital also observed that despite the sharp drop following the conflict, some traders have started positioning for bullish moves by the end of March, betting on a rebound.
Synthesizing this, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads:
Bearish Logic: The rise in LTH active supply might indicate that even with falling prices, older market participants are quietly exiting. Market structure suggests any upward move could merely be a 'bounce within a distribution phase,' implying the true bottom may not be in yet.Bullish Logic: The low LTH CVDD metric suggests they aren't panicking. The sharp decline in exchange balances and the return of ETF inflows are draining sell-side liquidity from the market. Once demand returns, this setup could easily lead to a short-squeeze-driven rally.
For traders, the key is to be wary of rallies that might be 'liquidity illusions.' For investors, however, the calmness of long-term holders and the return of ETF capital might just be the lighthouse guiding the way through this period of fog.
#LongTermHolders #OnChainAnalysis #CryptoMarket #rsshanto #LTH $BTC

The NUPL-MVRV Composite Index yes, that mouthful of crypto jargon just hit 0.33. And according to historical data, that puts Bitcoin squarely in the middle of its current market cycle.
But here's why you should actually care about this number.
For the uninitiated, we're looking at two of the most reliable on-chain metrics mashed together
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) tells us whether the market is in fear, hope, optimism, or greed by measuring whether holders are sitting on paper gains or losses.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares Bitcoin's current market cap to the price at which coins last moved – basically showing if the average holder is up or down.
Combine them, and you get a composite index that's historically done a frighteningly good job of identifying where we are in the cycle.
0.33 The "Meh" Number That Matters
Right now, that composite sits at 0.33. Not euphoric. Not despairing. Just... solidly mid-cycle.
And in crypto, "boring middle" is actually exciting news.
Here's the historical context that matters:
2015: The composite plunged to extreme lows. We were crawling out of a nuclear winter. Mt. Gox was fresh in everyone's memory. Bitcoin was "dead" for the 400th time.
2019: Another low point, though not as brutal as 2015. The market was recovering but still skeptical.

2022: Post-LUNA, post-FTX, post-everything. Another bottom, again shallower than the last.
Notice the pattern? Each cycle's low has been less severe than the previous one. The market is maturing. The floors are getting higher.
What This Means For Your Portfolio
At 0.33, we're not near a blow-off top where everyone's euphoric and grandma is asking about Dogecoin. We're also not in capitulation territory where panic selling dominates.
We're in the grind. The accumulation zone. The boring middle where real wealth is built before the latecomers arrive.
The composite index suggests we have room to run before hitting peak euphoria levels. Historically, really stupid valuations don't appear until this thing pushes well above 0.6 or 0.7.
The Takeaway
If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity, this is it. The on-chain data isn't screaming "top" or "bottom" it's calmly whispering "middle."
And in a market driven by extremes, the middle is often the smartest place to be.
Are you adding positions here, or waiting for a pullback? Let me know in the comments genuinely curious where everyone's heads are at with this signal.

#Bitcoin #OnChainAnalysis #MVRV #rsshanto $BTC

🐋 Whale Accumulation Report: Top Tokens Under Smart Money Radar
Based on the latest 24-hour on-chain data, here are the tokens showing aggressive whale and smart money accumulation :

🎯 Detailed Analysis: Top Picks
✅ 1. $SAMARA — Strongest Accumulation Signal
Smart Money Activity:
4 tracked addresses actively buying in the last 24hMulti-tag consensus : KOL + Whale + Cabal participation (highest confidence tier)Key buyers:@NachSOL (Cabal/KOL): 9.4M tokens held@Ed_x0101 (Smart Money/KOL): 2.6M tokens held@realpandapunks (Smart Money/KOL): 719K tokens heldUnnamed Whale: 750K tokens held
Behavior Pattern : Sustained accumulation with $12.12K net buying volume — indicates coordinated smart money positioning rather than random retail activity.
Risk Assessment : Early-stage token with concentrated holdings among known traders. Monitor for exit signals from top holders.

✅ 2. $NEO — Consistent KOL Accumulation
Smart Money Activity:
2 KOL addresses with strong track records@LongzuAlpha (Jinmu): 8.7M tokens@CryptoDevinL (CryptoD): 22.1M tokens (largest holder)
Behavior Pattern : Pure buying momentum ($6.32K net volume), no selling pressure detected. Both holders maintaining positions.
Risk Assessment : Lower consensus than SAMARA (only 2 addresses), but both are established KOLs with credible track records.

✅ 3. $CELINA — Highlight Address Alert
Smart Money Activity:
@Ga__ke (Smart Money/KOL/HighLight tag): 16.1M tokensHigh ROI trader (80% win rate): 35.4M tokens
Behavior Pattern : "HighLight" tag indicates this address is flagged by the tracking system as particularly successful. $5.92K net accumulation.
Risk Assessment : Smaller net volume than top picks, but the "HighLight" designation suggests this trader has a strong historical edge.
📊 Macro Context: What Whales Are Doing
Large Coin Transfers (Last 7 Days):
BTC : Massive institutional activity — $368M single transfer, multiple $50-100M+ moves between Coinbase Institutional and unknown walletsETH : $152M outflow from Binance, $102M unknown-to-unknown transferUSDT : $850M+ flows between HTX, Aave, and Tether Treasury (likely rebalancing)
Interpretation : Institutional players are actively repositioning. The large BTC/ETH flows suggest macro hedging or portfolio rebalancing rather than panic selling.
⚠️ Risk Warnings
Solana Meme Token Concentration : Most accumulation targets are Solana-based pump tokens with limited liquidity. Exit liquidity may be constrained during dumps.
Whale Dependency : These tokens rely heavily on a few large holders. If top holders exit, price action can reverse sharply.
No Fundamental Backing : These are primarily sentiment-driven assets. Monitor social media and KOL sentiment closely.
Timing Risk : Smart money accumulation doesn't guarantee immediate pumps. Holding periods can extend 1-4 weeks before catalysts emerge.

📋 Actionable Strategy
For Aggressive Traders:
Entry : Small test positions in SAMARA (highest consensus) and NEO (established KOLs)Position Size : 1-2% of portfolio max (high volatility)Stop Loss : -30% from entryTake Profit : +100-200% (typical meme token targets)Holding Period : 2-4 weeks, exit if top holders start selling

#WhaleAccumulation , #OnChainAnalysis #WhaleWatching #SmartMoneyMoves #CryptoAlpha