Trump, China and the Federal Reserve: the big game begins
Tariffs are falling โ money is not yet.
Trump has expressed readiness to meet with Xi Jinping.
"He is my friend," says the US president.
But this comes against the backdrop of escalation: tariffs on Chinese goods have risen to 125%.
๐ China responds with tariffs.
๐ The US introduces a 90-day pause for other countries, but China is under fire.
๐ฌ Hassett: "We are not at war with China" โ the rhetoric is soft, actions are tough.
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๐ What does this mean for the market?
- Trade tensions โ a trigger for volatility.
- Tariffs are unstable, but for now โ they are in effect.
- The Federal Reserve has not moved to QE, but expectations are rising.
- Money is scarce โ the market awaits stimulation.
๐ฐ๏ธ Key timing:
- End of 2025 or March 2026 โ a possible shift to QE, new head of the Federal Reserve.
- Cycle of changes โ is near.
- Investors are preparing for a turnaround.
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๐ก What to do?
- Keep focus on macro: rates, inflation, Federal Reserve rhetoric.
- Track signals: Trumpโs statements, negotiations with China, changes in monetary policy.
- Prepare for spring: a turnaround may begin with a new head of the Federal Reserve.
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