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#cpiwatch Pakistan’s November 2025 CPI is projected between 6.3% and 7.0%, mainly driven by food inflation and supply chain disruptions.

📊 Headline Snapshot

YoY CPI: Expected at 6.3%–7.0%, compared to 6.25% in October and 4.86% in November 2024 Business Recorder ProPakistani akseer.org Karachi Stocks Investors Lounge.
MoM CPI: Projected increase of 0.8%, reflecting higher food and energy costs Business Recorder ProPakistani Karachi Stocks.
Food inflation: Key drivers include onions (+59%), chicken (+16%), meat (+15%), and fresh vegetables (+12%) Business Recorder ProPakistani Karachi Stocks.
Housing & utilities: Category rose 0.79% MoM, mainly due to electricity tariff adjustments Business Recorder ProPakistani.

🔎 Drivers of Inflation

Flood aftereffects: Crop damage continues to pressure food supplies.
Afghan border closure: Disrupted supply chains, worsening food availability.
Energy costs: Electricity charges increased ~2.8% due to tariff adjustments ProPakistani.
Mixed crop outlook: Government support measures aim to stabilize supplies, but risks remain Business Recorder.

⚖️ Market & Policy Impact

Average inflation (5MFY26): ~5.0%, down from 7.9% last year akseer.org Investors Lounge.
SBP stance: Policy rate held at 11%, reflecting caution amid flood-related risks akseer.org Investors Lounge.
Household impact: Rising food prices weigh heavily on consumer budgets, especially lower-income groups.

📝 Quick Take

CPI Watch shows inflation edging higher in November 2025, with food and energy costs as the main culprits. While overall inflation is lower than last year’s highs, supply chain disruptions and tariff adjustments keep consumer prices elevated. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing growth with inflation control.

#CPIWatch #PakistanEconomy #InflationTrends #FoodPrices #SBPPolicy

#cpiwatch Pakistan’s November 2025 CPI is expected to rise to between 6.3% and 7.0%, driven mainly by food inflation.

📊 Headline Numbers

CPI projection: Analysts forecast 6.3%–7.0% year-on-year inflation for November 2025, compared with 6.25% in October and 4.86% in November 2024 akseer.org ProPakistani Investors Lounge.
Monthly change: Inflation is projected to increase 0.8% month-on-month, reflecting supply chain disruptions and rising food costs ProPakistani Investors Lounge.
Food inflation: Prices of key staples surged—onions up 59%, chicken 16%, meat 15%, and fresh vegetables 12% ProPakistani Investors Lounge.

⚖️ Drivers of Inflation

Flood impact: Damage to crops and infrastructure has constrained supply, pushing food prices higher akseer.org.
Border closures: Temporary closure of the Afghan border disrupted supply chains, adding pressure on food availability ProPakistani Investors Lounge.
Policy stance: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 11%, citing risks to macroeconomic stability akseer.org.

💵 Market Implications

Consumer pressure: Rising food costs weigh heavily on household budgets, especially lower-income groups.
Business costs: Supply chain disruptions increase input prices for retailers and food producers.
Policy outlook: With inflation still moderate compared to last year’s highs, the SBP is cautious, balancing growth needs with inflation control.

🌍 Broader Context

Average inflation: For the first five months of FY26, inflation averaged ~5.0%, down from 7.9% in the same period last year akseer.org.
Sectoral impact: Food remains the main driver, while other categories like energy and housing are relatively stable.
Global linkages: Rising global commodity prices and regional supply chain issues continue to influence Pakistan’s CPI trajectory.

#CPIWatch #PakistanEconomy #InflationTrends #FoodPrices #SBPPolicy