US tech stocks have been struggling lately. CBRS, one of the on-chain US stock contracts, dropped by 8.376% in the last 24 hours, hovering around the 222.4 mark. The funding rate is at zero, which is not common in the perp market. Usually, after a big up or down move, one side of the long or short positions has to pay some fees, but now it's zero, indicating there's not much short-term divergence between bulls and bears, or they're both choosing to wait and see.
Zooming out, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are wavering, and the dollar index is oscillating at high levels, directly capping the valuation ceiling of all risk assets. Within the US stock market, the previously leading Mag7 (the seven giants) has recently shown divergence, with the semiconductor sector bouncing around due to Nvidia's volatility. The tech sector, where CBRS is located, has a relatively high beta value; any slight market movement will amplify its volatility. This recent drop of nearly 9 points is considered a follow-through within the sector, even somewhat of an overreaction since the decline of benchmark ETFs like QQQ has been much more moderate during the same period.
The on-chain contract data is quite interesting. OI (open interest) stands at 25,000 contracts, which is a significant size at current prices. As prices drop, OI hasn't shrunk much, indicating that short positions might still be in play and haven’t closed their positions for profit due to the price drop. With the funding rate at zero, shorts don’t need to pay anything to longs, keeping their holding costs low. This creates a delicate balance, or a stalemate: longs are trapped but not paying extra, while shorts are profiting but not collecting rent. Such a structure often requires external forces to break it.
Looking across assets, US Treasury yields are still high, gold is seeing buying as a safe haven, and BTC is consolidating at high levels. These signals combined suggest that market risk appetite is shrinking. Funds are flowing out of high beta, high valuation tech stocks into relatively safer havens. Assets like CBRS are right at the center of this shift.
Therefore, I tend to believe we are in a complex position of tightening liquidity, sector rotation, and a standoff between bulls and bears. Historically, towards the end of a rate hike cycle, similar high beta growth stocks often experience this kind of gradual decline followed by consolidation, eventually ignited by some macro data or event.
Now, let's look at three scenarios. The baseline scenario is that the sector oscillates with the broader market, with CBRS grinding out a bottom in the 200-240 range, and the funding rate possibly turning negative in testing. If this happens, I would consider lightly entering long positions near the lower edge of this range, using tight stop losses to play for a technical rebound.
Trading Tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #CBRS
How long do you think this macro narrative for CBRS can hold up?
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