unlockalert

The market $RIVER is in a state of "extreme sensitivity" due to the combination of positive listing news and upcoming selling pressure. Let's review the main developments:
1. Price movement: "Hot increase and starting to adjust"
Current price: After reaching an all-time high (ATH) around $41 - $42 on 14/01, the price $RIVER has undergone a strong adjustment.
24h volatility: The price is currently fluctuating around $33 - $35 (slightly up ~16% compared to yesterday's short-term low thanks to the news of listing on the Korean exchange).

January 18 is shaping up to be a defining date for Ondo Finance and ONDO price, though not for the reasons many expect. The $772M token unlock has sparked intense debate, yet the real story sits beneath the surface. Crypto analyst Sarosh, known online as @SaroshQ2022, frames the event as a liquidity stress test rather than a final judgment. That distinction matters more than the headline number.
Unlocks often look dramatic when isolated from context. Sarosh argues that unlocks create optional liquidity, not automatic selling pressure. The market response during this window will reveal whether ONDO behaves like fragile speculation or durable infrastructure

Orderly Absorption Shows ONDO Finance Liquidity Depth.

The most constructive outcome centers on calm digestion. Sarosh describes a scenario where ONDO price holds structure, volume stays controlled, and selling pressure does not cascade. Such behavior would suggest alignment among longer-term holders and limited urgency from early stakeholders. Liquidity depth becomes visible only when supply increases without chaos.

ONDO price already reflects heavy pessimism after falling close to 80% over the past 12 months. That prior drawdown reduces the odds of panic selling during the unlock. Sarosh notes that emotional exits tend to happen earlier, when narratives collapse and liquidity is thin. This environment looks different

Orderly Absorption Shows ONDO Finance Liquidity Depth

The most constructive outcome centers on calm digestion. Sarosh describes a scenario where ONDO price holds structure, volume stays controlled, and selling pressure does not cascade. Such behavior would suggest alignment among longer-term holders and limited urgency from early stakeholders. Liquidity depth becomes visible only when supply increases without chaos.

ONDO price already reflects heavy pessimism after falling close to 80% over the past 12 months. That prior drawdown reduces the odds of panic selling during the unlock. Sarosh notes that emotional exits tend to happen earlier, when narratives collapse and liquidity is thin. This environment looks different.

$Ondo Liquidity Stress Test
What this really means is January 18th is a forced honesty moment for ONDO — not a verdict. A $772M unlock sounds terrifying when you read it in isolation, but unlocks don’t equal instant selling. They equal optional liquidity.The stress test is…
Short Term ONDO Price Flush That Still Stabilizes
3 Ways ONDO $772M Upcoming Unlock Could Play Out: One Is a Disaster
Table of Contents
Orderly Absorption Shows ONDO Finance Liquidity Depth
Short Term ONDO Price Flush That Still Stabilizes
Rare Failure Scenario Requires Broader Market Stress
January 18 is shaping up to be a defining date for Ondo Finance and ONDO price, though not for the reasons many expect. The $772M token unlock has sparked intense debate, yet the real story sits beneath the surface. Crypto analyst Sarosh, known online as @SaroshQ2022, frames the event as a liquidity stress test rather than a final judgment. That distinction matters more than the headline number.
Unlocks often look dramatic when isolated from context. Sarosh argues that unlocks create optional liquidity, not automatic selling pressure. The market response during this window will reveal whether ONDO behaves like fragile speculation or durable infrastructure.

Orderly Absorption Shows ONDO Finance Liquidity Depth
The most constructive outcome centers on calm digestion. Sarosh describes a scenario where ONDO price holds structure, volume stays controlled, and selling pressure does not cascade. Such behavior would suggest alignment among longer-term holders and limited urgency from early stakeholders. Liquidity depth becomes visible only when supply increases without chaos.

ONDO price already reflects heavy pessimism after falling close to 80% over the past 12 months. That prior drawdown reduces the odds of panic selling during the unlock. Sarosh notes that emotional exits tend to happen earlier, when narratives collapse and liquidity is thin. This environment looks different.

$Ondo Liquidity Stress Test

What this really means is January 18th is a forced honesty moment for ONDO — not a verdict. A $772M unlock sounds terrifying when you read it in isolation, but unlocks don’t equal instant selling. They equal optional liquidity.

The stress test is…
— Sarosh (@SaroshQ2022) January 15, 2026
In this case, volatility still appears, headlines still amplify fear, and supply does leak into the market. Structural damage, however, remains absent. Sarosh estimates this outcome carries roughly a 60% probability, making it the most likely path.

Short Term ONDO Price Flush That Still Stabilizes
A second path involves turbulence without lasting harm. ONDO price could experience a sharp knee jerk drop as unlocked tokens meet cautious demand. Sarosh outlines a possible 15% to 25% downside move before sellers exhaust themselves.

Such moves often feel worse than they are. Liquidity thins briefly, charts look uncomfortable, and sentiment dips again. Stabilization tends to follow once forced sellers clear. Sarosh assigns this scenario around a 25% chance and emphasizes that survival remains intact.
Timing also plays a role. This unlock arrives before the Ondo Summit, not after. Unlocks ahead of narrative milestones frequently reset positioning and remove weak hands early. That process can prepare the market for the next phase instead of ending it.

$ONDO #news #UnlockAlert

* What’s Up?
* Buying Strategy

What’s Up?
The upcoming $ONDO token unlock on January 18, 2026, will release approximately 1.94 billion tokens, valued at around $744 million based on recent pricing.
This represents a substantial 57% increase relative to the current released supply (with about 33.89% of the total 10 billion supply unlocked so far, or roughly 3.39 billion tokens in circulation).
The breakdown of the unlocked tokens is as follows:
52.1% (about 1.01 billion ONDO) to ecosystem growth, which could fund partnerships, development, and incentives rather than immediate dumps.33% (about 640 million ONDO) to protocol development, likely held or used internally.12.9% (about 250 million ONDO) to private sales (e.g., investors like Pantera or Founders Fund), where some selling might occur but is often staggered.2% (about 39 million ONDO) to community access sales.
Recent tokenomics adjustments allocate portions of ecosystem funds toward staking rewards (up to 40%) and buybacks (around 10%), which could help absorb supply pressure by encouraging holding and reducing circulating tokens over time.
Token unlocks like this typically introduce short-term volatility due to potential selling from recipients, especially if market sentiment is weak. Historical patterns in similar projects (e.g. large unlocks in ARB or other RWA tokens) often lead to a 10-30% price dip in the days following, as increased supply meets fixed or declining demand.
However, if the tokens aren’t fully dumped (common with ecosystem/dev allocations), the impact can be muted, and prices may rebound quickly—especially for projects with strong fundamentals like Ondo.
Sentiment on X shows a mix: some fear a major dump pushing prices toward $0.20, while others dismiss it as overblown FUD, noting past unlocks didn’t crater the price long-term and even led to quick recoveries (e.g. one post highlights a 17% bounce just 24 hours post-unlock in a prior event).
Ondo’s long-term outlook remains bullish due to its leadership in real-world assets (RWA) tokenization. TVL has doubled to over $2 billion in under a year, with integrations like tokenized BlackRock funds, Fidelity-anchored products, and expansions into 24/7 trading on Solana and partnerships with PayPal (via PYUSD conversions).
Institutional backing from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Mastercard adds credibility, and regulatory wins (e.g. SEC investigation closure, broker-dealer licenses) reduce risks. The RWA sector is projected to hit $10 trillion by 2030, positioning ONDO for significant growth if adoption continues.

Buying Strategy
Given the unlock’s timing (tomorrow) and potential for a dip:
Short-term approach (if risk-tolerant): Avoid buying today. Monitor price action closely post-unlock (e.g. via exchanges like Binance or KuCoin). If a dip materializes (potentially 15-25% below current levels around $0.38-$0.45), enter in tranches — e.g.buy 30% immediately on the dip, 40% if it drops further, and hold 30% for confirmation of a rebound. Set stop-losses 10-15% below entry to limit downside.Long-term approach (HODL mindset): Use dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Buy a small portion now to capture any pre-unlock stability, then allocate more post-unlock during volatility. For example, split buys over the next week: 20% today, 40% on dip day, 40% a few days later once dust settles. Stake portions for rewards to offset inflation.Key risks to watch: Daily trading volume is only ~$200-300 million, so the unlock (valued at 2-3x that) could amplify swings if dumps occur. Broader crypto market conditions (e.g. Bitcoin trends) will influence this—bullish macro could blunt the impact.Targets: Short-term recovery to $0.50-$0.60 if dip holds shallow; longer-term (6-12 months), $1+ is feasible on RWA momentum, potentially $2-5 in a full bull cycle based on TVL growth and adoption.

Always DYOR and consider this isn’t financial advice — crypto is volatile, and unlocks can defy expectations.

#ONDO #UnlockAlert #DCA #HODLStrategy

The next 24 HOURS could unleash serious volatility ⚡📉📈
Two high-stakes U.S. events are lining up to rattle stocks, bonds, and crypto 🧨
⸻
⚖️ 1️⃣ SUPREME COURT TARIFF DECISION — 10:00 AM ET
A verdict on Trump-era tariffs is imminent 🇺🇸
📊 Markets are pricing a ~77% chance they get overturned ❌
💣 If tariffs are struck down:
👉 Billions in potential refunds 💰
👉 Liquidity dislocations + confidence shock
👉 Replacement policies likely slower and weaker
⚠️ The real threat? Sentiment.
Right now, tariffs are oddly viewed as risk-supportive.
Pull them — and markets could flip risk-off fast.
📉 Crypto won’t escape the fallout.
⸻
📉 2️⃣ U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT — 8:30 AM ET
🎯 Forecast: 4.5% (prior 4.6%)
Either way, pressure builds 👇
⬆️ Higher unemployment → recession fears ignite
⬇️ Lower unemployment → the Fed stays hawkish 🦅
❌ Rate-cut hopes take another blow
📊 January cut odds already near 11%
🔥 A strong print could erase them entirely
⸻
❌ Weak data = economic panic
❌ Strong data = tighter policy for longer
⚡ No clean win.
🎢 Expect chop, fake breakouts, and violent swings.
🛑 Manage risk
🎯 Size down
🧠 Stay sharp
⏱️ The next 24 hours punish sloppy trades. 🔥😤
$UAI 💪 #UnlockAlert #UAITrade

Key Events to Watch (April 14th - April 20th, 2025) 🗓

Next week features a suit of important events—from major token unlocks to critical US economic data. Here’s what to keep on your radar:

🔒 Token Unlocks
#UnlockAlert
- April 15 – STRK Unlock

Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens, valued at approximately $17 million, representing 4.37% of its circulating supply.

- April 16 – ARB Unlock

Arbitrum (ARB) is set to unlock 92.65 million tokens, worth approximately $28 million, representing 2.01% of its circulating supply.

- April 18 – TRUMP Unlock

Official Trump (TRUMP) will unlock 40 million tokens, valued at approximately $326 million, representing 20% of its circulating supply.

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📊 US Economic Data Release and FOMC Meeting
- April 16 — Retail Sales
- April 17 — Initial Jobless Claims

With this week’s CPI and PPI inflation prints both coming in cooler than expected, fears around sticky inflation have eased—at least for now. As a result, traders are currently pricing in a pause at the Fed’s next FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Looking ahead, next week’s spotlight will be on the Retail Sales report, offering a fresh read on consumer spending and the broader health of the economy. Stronger-than-expected sales could hint at lingering inflationary pressures and ongoing economic resilience—a combination that markets may interpret as bearish. Conversely, weaker retail figures might signal a cooling consumer sector, bolstering the case for monetary easing and potentially lifting market sentiment.

Also on the radar is the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report. While not typically a market mover on its own, lower-than-expected claims would point to a firm labor market, reinforcing the likelihood of fewer rate cuts in 2025—a scenario that could weigh on risk appetite. On the other hand, a rise in claims would suggest softening job conditions, increasing the chances of rate cuts and likely providing a bullish tailwind for markets.

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That’s all for next week’s key events! Stay tuned, and we’ll be back with more updates in the next roundup.
#NewsAboutCrypto