📅 January 23 |
For the first time since October 2023, onchain data shows something that historically marks the beginning of much more delicate phases of the cycle: investors are starting to realize net losses when moving their BTC. It's not just a price drop, it's a profound change in market behavior. And when this pattern appeared in the past, it didn't anticipate a simple correction... it anticipated a complete bear market.
📖According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin holders have begun to record net realized losses over the last 30 days, a phenomenon not seen for more than two years.
The firm explains that since December 23, 2025, investors have realized accumulated losses equivalent to 69,000 BTC. This data is not based on assumptions, but on direct analysis of onchain transactions combined with market prices at the time of each transfer.
Each time a bitcoin changes hands, CryptoQuant compares the current price with the price at which that same coin was previously transferred, determining whether there was an actual gain or loss.
The most disturbing thing is not only the recent data, but the pattern that has been forming since the beginning of 2024. The peaks of realized profits have been increasingly smaller in January 2024, December 2024, July 2025 and October 2025.
It is a sequence of declining highs that the firm says reveals that price strength was weakening even as the spot value still remained high.
CryptoQuant points out that this behavior almost exactly reflects the transition from the bullish to the bearish cycle that occurred between 2021 and 2022. At that time, realized gains began to progressively decline throughout 2021 until, months before the 2022 bear market, the flow definitively changed towards net losses.
Currently, annual net realized gains have fallen to 2.5 million BTC, a sharp reduction from 4.4 million BTC recorded in October. It is the lowest level since March 2024 and very similar to the values seen in March 2022, when the previous bear market was already underway.
Topic Opinion:
This is one of those indicators that usually go unnoticed by the general public but that onchain analysts consider critical. When investors start accepting real losses instead of waiting for recoveries, the psychology of the market changes. It is no longer about patience, but about progressive capitulation. If this pattern continues, we could be seeing not a temporary correction, but the confirmed start of a new bearish phase for Bitcoin, very similar to the one experienced after the 2021 high.
💬 Are we at the beginning of a new bear market?
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