Micro strategies: Bitmine's two major players have simultaneously "paused buying": what are they seeing?
Historical four-year cycle statistics:
2014 Black Swan Event: The Mt. Gox exchange was hacked and declared bankrupt, core liquidity in the industry plummeted to zero, with <a>
$BTC </a> dropping from $1,100 to around $160, a decline of about 85%.
2018 Black Swan Event: The ICO funding bubble burst, coupled with the Fed entering a rate hike and balance sheet reduction cycle, global regulatory pressure tightened, BTC fell from $19,800 to around $3,100, a decline of about 84%.
2022 Black Swan Event: The LUNA algorithmic stablecoin crashed to zero along with the collapse of the FTX exchange, combined with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the strongest rate hike cycle in 40 years, BTC dropped from $69,000 to around $15,500, a decline of about 77%.
2026: The U.S. triggers a Middle Eastern counterattack with "Operation Epic Fury," leading to an energy stagflation crisis due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. If we consider the historical average depth of liquidation, BTC could potentially pull back by 70%-80% from the 2025 peak of $126,000, to around $45,000?
(Speculative perspective) Are institutions sensing a Black Swan is coming? Do they need cash flexibility to cope with deep pullbacks? Currently, tensions in the Middle East—by the end of February 2026, the U.S. and Israel's "Operation Epic Fury" targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and leadership could face retaliation, disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz (which accounts for 20% of global oil transit), with oil price volatility and lingering energy crisis effects. Although there is a temporary ceasefire, the risk of escalation remains. Historically, major liquidations always require external catalysts; if geopolitical issues arise again, it could trigger stagflation/liquidity tightening, potentially becoming a new Black Swan that bursts the risk asset bubble.
Currently, the BTC bull run isn't completely over, but signals of a "frenzy turning to calculation" are already evident. For retail investors, holding cash might be more prudent. So at the current price of $80,000, would you buy BTC betting this time will be different? <a>
$ETH #BTC </a> <a>
#Bitmine #MSTR </a> #Tom Lee discusses BitMine slowing ETH purchases