cardano

#Cardano #ADA #ADAUSDT

Cardano continues to trade at bottom prices with no new lows. The situation is almost the same as with Dogecoin. A bullish wave follows a bearish wave, but there can be a wick or final shakeout. The market can turn green this very same week.

The action here is happening within our entry zone. ADA has been dropping since December 2024. At first, there was high bearish volume and very strong bearish momentum with big candles. Lately, there is only sideways with a bearish bent but no new lows since last month. This is an entry zone but with caution.

The market is sure to turn but anything can happen in the very short-term.

Secure your positions. Stay safe.

Here you can find the full trade-numbers. Wait for bullish action to re-enter with full force.

As soon as the market turns green, can be in a matter of days; there will be no going back. There is no change on this chart. It's been months sideways...

The smaller projects are doing better; yet, what one does, the rest follows.

We will experience additional growth. (In this case, a new wave of growth.)

Thank you for reading.

Namaste.

✅ Trade here on $ADA

Cardano (ADA) has once again attempted to stage a recovery, but the outcome remains familiar. Since January 20, ADA has climbed roughly 7%, briefly pushing higher before stalling near the $0.35–$0.37 zone. Rather than signaling a trend reversal, the move appears to be another short-lived bounce lacking the conviction needed to sustain upside momentum.
A closer look at on-chain data, technical indicators, and market behavior reveals three key reasons why Cardano’s rallies continue to fade below the $0.37 level.
1. Weak Hidden Bullish Divergence Only Supports Short-Term Relief
The most recent rebound in ADA was triggered by a hidden bullish divergence on the 12-hour chart. Between late December and January 20, ADA formed higher lows in price while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed slightly lower lows.
This type of divergence typically signals easing selling pressure rather than a full shift to buyer control. As a result, it often leads to brief relief rallies instead of sustained uptrends.
That scenario played out almost perfectly. On January 21, ADA rose around 7% and briefly tested the $0.37 area before momentum quickly faded.
Interestingly, this price move coincided with a peak in Cardano’s development activity index, which reached 6.94 — the highest level in over a month. Historically, increased development activity tends to reinforce investor confidence and support price strength.
However, the support was short-lived. As development activity cooled, ADA’s upward momentum stalled as well. While the index has since recovered slightly to 6.85, it remains below its recent peak, suggesting that the underlying demand needed to sustain higher prices is still lacking.
In short, the hidden bullish divergence helped prevent a deeper sell-off, but it failed to generate enough buying pressure to drive a lasting breakout.
2. Profit-Taking Intensifies Every Time ADA Recovers
A more persistent issue lies in how the market reacts to every price rebound.
On-chain data from the “spent coins age band” metric — which tracks the movement of coins across different holding periods — shows a consistent pattern: profit-taking accelerates sharply whenever ADA rallies.
In late December, a roughly 12% price increase was accompanied by an 80% surge in coin spending activity, indicating aggressive selling into strength. In mid-January, a similar 10% rebound triggered nearly a 100% increase in spent coin activity, reinforcing the idea that investors are using rallies as exit opportunities.
This behavior is repeating once again. Since January 24, spent coin activity has risen more than 11%, even though ADA has yet to break through key resistance. This suggests that sellers are positioning early, anticipating another failed recovery rather than waiting for confirmation of a trend change.
As a result, each rebound becomes increasingly fragile, with selling pressure arriving faster and overwhelming upside momentum.
3. Whales Are Reducing Exposure Instead of Absorbing Supply
Under normal conditions, large holders often play a stabilizing role by absorbing selling pressure. That dynamic, however, is currently missing in Cardano’s market structure.
Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have reduced their combined balances from 13.64 billion to 13.62 billion ADA since January 21 — a net decrease of around 20 million ADA. Similarly, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA have shed nearly 10 million ADA over the same period.
While this does not indicate panic selling, it does reflect a steady net reduction in exposure. With whales stepping back rather than accumulating, profit-taking pressure remains largely unabsorbed, leaving ADA more vulnerable to pullbacks.
Derivatives data further supports this cautious outlook. Over the next seven days, potential short liquidations stand at approximately $107.6 million, compared to $70.1 million in long liquidations. This imbalance suggests that market participants are positioning for upside failures rather than sustained rallies.
Key Price Levels to Watch
Current price structure highlights several important thresholds that will likely determine ADA’s next move:
Upside levels
$0.37: The first resistance that needs to be reclaimed to trigger short liquidations.
$0.39: A critical level where a broader shift in momentum could occur.
$0.42: A breakout above this zone would help restore a more constructive market structure.
Downside levels
$0.34: A key support zone. A decisive loss of this level could trigger long liquidations and accelerate downside pressure.
Conclusion
For Cardano to break out of this recurring pattern, several conditions would need to align: development activity would have to reclaim and hold recent highs, profit-taking behavior would need to slow during price recoveries, and large holders would need to return as net buyers.
Until those shifts occur, ADA’s rallies are likely to remain vulnerable to selling pressure, particularly near key resistance zones.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
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