china

​Date: January 23, 2026
Topic: Commodities / Geopolitics
​In early 2026, the precious metals market stands at a precarious tipping point. With gold hovering near $4,700 per ounce and silver shattering records above $90, investors are caught between euphoria and dread. While current trends are historically bullish, fears of an imminent "crash" are growing. This volatility is not merely a market cycle; it is the direct fallout of an escalating economic conflict between the United States and China, where gold and silver have transformed from passive assets into geopolitical weapons.
​The "Crash" Narrative: Liquidity and Margins
​Why are traders whispering about a crash when prices are at all-time highs? The answer lies in market mechanics. The recent parabolic rise in silver—up over 35% in just the first few weeks of 2026—has triggered "overbought" signals.
​When asset prices rise too fast, exchanges (like the CME Group) often hike margin requirements to curb speculation. This forces leveraged traders to cough up more cash instantly. Those who cannot pay are forced to sell, triggering a cascade of liquidations. We saw a glimpse of this in late 2025, and fears are mounting that a similar "liquidity flush" could drop silver prices by 20-30% in a matter of days. This isn't a loss of value; it is a forced sell-off.
​The Catalyst: The US-China Resource War
​The primary driver of this volatility is the weaponization of trade. Effective January 1, 2026, China implemented strict export licensing on refined silver and other critical minerals. As the world’s largest refiner, Beijing’s move effectively throttles global supply, creating a structural deficit.
​China's Strategy: By restricting exports, China is squeezing Western industries (particularly Solar and EV manufacturers) that rely heavily on silver. Simultaneously, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to hoard gold to de-dollarize its reserves, creating a "floor" for gold prices.
​The U.S. Response: The U.S. has retaliated with aggressive tariffs and moves to secure supply chains outside of Chinese influence (e.g., the recent geopolitical maneuvering regarding Greenland). This tit-for-tat escalation creates uncertainty, driving safe-haven demand for gold while physically constraining the supply of silver.
​Structural Deficits vs. Speculative Bubbles
​Investors must distinguish between a price correction and a structural crash. A crash implies a fundamental loss of demand. However, the data suggests the opposite.
​Silver: The industrial demand for silver in 2026 is projected to outstrip mining supply by hundreds of millions of ounces. Even if speculators sell, industrial buyers must buy.
​Gold: With interest rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve in 2026 to manage U.S. debt, the dollar is facing headwinds. Historically, a weaker dollar acts as rocket fuel for gold.
​Outlook: Turbulence Ahead
​The warning signs of a "crash" are real, but they likely point to short-term volatility rather than a long-term bear market. We may see violent pullbacks—potentially dropping gold to $4,200 or silver to $70—driven by profit-taking and margin calls. However, as long as the US-China economic conflict centers on critical resources, the long-term trajectory for these metals remains upward.
​Bottom Line: The market is currently a battleground. For the short-term speculator, the risk of a crash is high. For the long-term strategic investor, these dips may represent the last opportunities to acquire assets that are central to the economic war of the 21st century.
​Next Step
​Would you like me to create a comparison table showing the "Support" and "Resistance" price levels for Gold and Silver based on the latest technical analysis to help you spot potential entry or exit points?
#Gold #silver #china #U.S #WEFDavos2026

While most global stock markets weakened on Wednesday, Chinese equities moved in the opposite direction. Investors focused on the government’s increasing push for technological self-sufficiency and the acceleration of domestic artificial intelligence development, even as global markets remain gripped by uncertainty and geopolitical tension.
Strength was most evident in the technology sector. The STAR 50 Index, often compared to the Nasdaq, climbed as much as 4.3%, marking its strongest weekly gain. The broader CSI 300 Index, which tracks major mainland Chinese stocks, was up around 0.5% by mid-afternoon.

Global markets under pressure from trade tensions
Optimism in China stood in sharp contrast to developments elsewhere. Asian equities overall fell by roughly 0.8%, while the S&P 500 recorded its steepest decline since October. The sell-off followed renewed concerns over escalating trade disputes after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on European countries that rejected his proposal to purchase Greenland.
China’s stock market—the second largest in the world—found support in a clear signal from Beijing: accelerate domestic technology development, strengthen artificial intelligence capabilities, and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. This strategy has helped Chinese equities hold up better than expected over the past year. Strong exports and targeted government support for advanced manufacturing and technology sectors have softened the impact of tariff-related pressures.

Chipmakers lead the rally
Semiconductor companies emerged as the main drivers of gains. Although memory prices were rising across Asia, the most pronounced jumps were seen in China. Shares of Loongson Technology Corp surged by 20%, while Hygon Information Technology Co rose by about 17%.
According to Steven Tseng of Bloomberg Intelligence, the strength in chip stocks is not solely linked to memory price movements. Instead, it reflects a broader trend tied to China’s ambition to build a fully self-sufficient semiconductor ecosystem.

Outlook remains constructive
Despite mainland Chinese stocks hitting a four-year high earlier this month—and subsequent regulatory measures such as tighter margin-financing rules aimed at cooling the rally—investor sentiment remains broadly positive. Chen Shi of Shanghai Jade Stone Investment Management expects equities to continue rising, citing limited domestic investment alternatives. He believes China could outperform global markets again in the coming days.

#china , #stockmarket , #AI , #TechStocks , #Investing

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PBOC just dropped new macro data and it’s bad.
Like really bad - and getting worse.

At this point, we’re looking at the biggest market crash in modern history.

Worse than COVID.
Worse than 2008.

Here’s the part no one is telling you:

Their M2 money supply has gone absolutely vertical - now over $48 TRILLION (USD equivalent).

Let that sink in for a second.

That’s more than double the entire U.S. money supply.

And here’s the key part people are missing:
When China prints like this, the money doesn’t just chill in stocks.

It spills straight into real assets.

China is actively dumping U.S. Treasuries and stocks and rotating into gold and hard assets instead.

They’re trading paper for stuff that actually exists:
gold, silver, copper, commodities.

While China, the world’s biggest commodity buyer, is doing this, Western banks are sitting on massive gold and silver short positions.

How massive?
About 4.4 BILLION ounces of silver short.

Global silver mine supply per year?
~800 million ounces.

That means banks are short ~550% of annual global production.

Yeah. Five. Hundred. Fifty. Percent.

This is a macro disaster waiting to happen.
On one side:
China debasing its currency and stockpiling real assets → bullish for metals.

On the other:
Western institutions betting against higher prices with positions that literally can’t be covered.

You can’t buy 4.4 billion ounces of silver.
It doesn’t exist.

This is shaping up to Commodity Supercycle 2.0.

If silver starts moving, pushed by Chinese demand (solar, EVs) + currency debasement - shorts get squeezed.

And in a market this tight, a squeeze doesn’t mean “prices go up a bit.”

It means a full repricing of gold, silver, and commodities.

Fiat money? Infinite supply.
Metals in the ground? Very finite.

Central banks are racing to destroy their currencies.
Owning what they can’t print is the obvious move.

A global market crash is coming.
You should probably stop ignoring this.

I’ve called multiple crashes before - and I’ll call th
is one too.

Follow and turn on notifications before it’s too late.

#china #M2MoneySupply #money