Ethereum (ETH) is currently attempting to reclaim the critical psychological level at $3,000. However, weakening demand signals, combined with persistent ETF outflows and deteriorating technical structure, are raising concerns that ETH could revisit the $2,000 zone—or even lower—in the coming weeks.
Ethereum Demand Falls to a 10-Month Low
On-chain data suggests that Ethereum demand has significantly weakened since mid-December. According to Capriole Investments, Ethereum’s Apparent Demand metric plunged from over 92,000 ETH on December 13 to -3,562 ETH by January 16, marking the lowest reading since March 2025. Although the indicator has since rebounded modestly to around 665 ETH, overall demand remains historically weak.
This sustained decline in demand during a corrective price phase points to active distribution, especially as ETH repeatedly tests major support levels. Notably, the $3,000 level—once a strong accumulation zone—has now turned into a key battlefield between buyers and sellers.
The last time Ethereum’s apparent demand dropped to similar levels was in March 2025, when ETH traded near $2,200. What followed was a sharp 25% sell-off, driving the price down to approximately $1,750 within days—a historical parallel that is now fueling bearish expectations.
$2,800–$3,000: The Make-or-Break Support Zone
According to data from Coinphoton, Ethereum’s most critical support currently lies between $2,800 and $3,000. Over the past six months, investors have accumulated nearly 9 million ETH within this range, creating a dense cost-basis support zone.
Order book heatmap analysis further reinforces this view. Market analyst Kriptoholder notes substantial whale buy interest concentrated around $2,800–$2,850, with additional heavy buy walls stacked in the $2,500–$2,600 range.
“The thick support cluster around $2,800 and strong bid walls below suggest that institutional players are positioning themselves to absorb volatility and accumulate during pullbacks,” Kriptoholder explained.
Technically, this support region also aligns with the 50-week moving average and the lower boundary of a descending flag pattern, increasing its importance from a structural standpoint.
Crypto investor Batman added:
“ETH is approaching its final defensive line—an area that has held price for nearly three months. If Ethereum is going to bounce, this is the zone. Failure here would significantly worsen the outlook.”
What Happens If Support Breaks?
If Ethereum decisively breaks below the $2,800 support zone, the next levels to watch include the 200-day moving average near $2,460, followed by the psychological $2,000 mark.
From a pattern-measured perspective, the bearish flag formation projects a downside target near $1,850, which could represent a potential cycle low should bearish momentum accelerate.
That said, the bearish scenario is not guaranteed. Coinphoton notes that Ethereum could still invalidate the downside thesis if it manages to hold above $3,000, supported by improving network activity, rising staking participation, and long-term accumulation trends.
Final Thoughts
Ethereum is currently at a critical inflection point. Weak demand and technical pressure favor the bears in the short term, but strong structural support below could still provide a foundation for recovery. The next few weeks are likely to be decisive in determining whether ETH stabilizes—or enters a deeper corrective phase.
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects personal market analysis. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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