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Axel Adler says Bitcoin's recent decline still lacks true capitulation signals today.
Exchange balances increased by 91,000 BTC while stablecoin liquidity continued declining.
Miner stress could intensify if Bitcoin falls below $55,000 support level further.
Bitcoin has fallen 22% from its May peak, more than $12 billion has left the network, and investors have been locking in losses for 25 consecutive days. To many traders, that sounds like a market bottom. But according to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., the current market drop may not be the true market bottom.
Five Key Indicators Point to Ongoing Weakness
What makes Adler’s warning notable is that it isn’t based on a single metric.
Instead, five different market indicators, derivatives, realized cap, SOPR, miner behavior, and exchange flows, are all pointing toward the same conclusion.
One example is Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score, which has cooled to 0.32 from a historical average of 1.71. Meanwhile, the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has remained below 1 for 13 straight days, currently sitting at 0.987.
2/9 On the surface, it all looks like a bottom.
MVRV Z-Score has cooled to 0.32 – the overheating premium is gone. aSOPR has now stayed below 1 for 13 straight days – the market is selling at a loss.
But that is exactly what makes it confusing: the stress is there, but the…
Another four indicator data shows that,
91,000 BTC have moved onto exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.
More than $119 million in stablecoins has left exchanges, reducing available buying power.
Puell Multiple (30DMA) sits at 0.73, signaling growing miner stress.
Open interest is falling even as Bitcoin rebounds from $60,000, suggesting the move is driven by short covering rather than fresh demand.
Why $55K Could Become the Key Level
Adler believes the biggest risk lies with Bitcoin miners. He notes that Bitcoin’s Price-to-Miner-Revenue ratio has collapsed from 160 to 80, while BTC is now trading roughly 21% below the Difficulty Bottom indicator.
8/9 And this is no longer just about spot.
Miners have entered a stress zone: Price to Miner-Revenue has collapsed from 160 to 80, while price is 21% below Difficulty Bottom. Derivatives, on-chain, miners, flows – pressure is building across all of them at once.
If the Puell Multiple falls below 0.50 and Bitcoin drops under $55,000, miners could be forced to sell more of their holdings to cover costs.
Currently, the Puell Multiple sits at 0.73.
Historically, similar miner capitulation events helped form major market bottoms in both 2018 and 2022. For now, Adler believes Bitcoin is showing signs of cooling, but not yet the kind of extreme fear and forced selling that typically marks the final stage of a bear market.
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